Assembly Elections are not due in Uttar Pradesh till the first half of 2017. But the campaigning has already begun. And the situation is complicated.
Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is currently in power. Yadav is looking for allies now to consolidate, and has had a series of talks with Rashtriya Lok Dal chief Ajit Singh to attract Jat voters from Western UP. However, Singh has said, "There was no discussion on the possibility of an alliance. I have not even discussed the issue within the RLD organisation."
Addressing the issue, a senior SP leader said, "If the SP changes its Rajya Sabha candidate and asks a nominee to withdraw to make way for Ajit Singh, it might attract Jat voters for the SP, but it will send an adverse message among the SP’s cadre-based workers."
On the other hand, former Chief Minister Mayawati, the supremo of the Bahujan Samaj Party, is confident that she requires no allies. She has recently fired salvos at both the BJP and the Congress. She laid the blame for the Mathura violence squarely on the shoulders of the BJP" "It is the failure of the Centre and its intelligence in ascertaining the shady activities that were going on inside Jawahar Bagh. The Centre could have at least alerted the state government.''
Mayawati is also trying to expand her voter base from Dalits to Muslim minorities. And she's offering a bonus if she comes back to power. No more statues!
From 174 seats in 1996, the BJP fell to a mere 47 seats in 2012. However in the 2014 Parliamentary elections, the party won 73 out of the 80 seats in UP. BJP Chief Amit Shah is also eyeing Dalit votes, as is evident from his dips with Dalit sadhus at the Kumbh Mela and his lunches at Dalit homes.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also shift his attention to the state. His celebrations for two years in office began from Saharanpur in UP. Shah blamed the ruling Samajwadi Party for the violence in Mathura, "If even a little bit of self-respect is left in netaji (SP head Mulayam Singh Yadav), he should get the resignation of minister Shivpal Yadav immediately." Of his party's promises, he said, "We have specified that the Ram temple should be made on the site either after a consensus or by the directions of court. This is our firm stand."
The Congress is also revving up its campaign and has hired famed strategist Prashant Kishor, who has been credited with contributing hugely to Modi's victory in 2014, and to Nitish Kumar's in Bihar in 2015. The Congress party is looking to Kishor for a similar performance in UP, despite his lack of success in the Assam elections.
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