A pre-poll survey conducted by Lokniti of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies indicated that the national mood was in favour of giving the Bharatiya Janata Party and the National Democratic Alliance a second term.
“Over the last one year, the ruling party appears to have overcome the emerging mood of anti-incumbency and turned the tide in its favour,” the survey report said. “As things stand in the last week of March 2019, the NDA appears close to the majority mark, though the BJP itself seems well short of securing a majority on its own. One must however hasten to add, that there does not appear to be any national wave in favour of the ruling party.”
The CSDS-Lokniti Pre Poll Survey indicated that the ruling BJP and the Congress are likely to register a 4% increase in their vote share. However, this rise in vote share does not translate to an increase in seat share for the BJP.
The pre-poll survey pegged BJP’s vote share estimate at 35%. The party’s actual vote share in May 2014 was 31%. The BJP’s allies was 7.4% in 2014 and 6% in the pre-poll survey.
The Congress vote share, which was 19.3% in May 2014, increased to 23%, according to the survey. The vote share of Congress allies rose to 7% from 3.7 in 2014.
Despite an increase in vote share, the BJP is likely to lose seats due to a “more united Opposition” in key states. The survey pegged BJP’s seat estimate between 222 and 232, significantly lower than the 283 seats that the party won in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The pre-poll survey showed that Congress party’s seat estimate will rise to 74-84. The party had won just 44 seats in 2014.
The survey showed that the National Democratic Alliance may or may not cross the majority mark, wining between 263 and 283 seats. The United Progressive Alliance is estimated to have between 115 and 135 seats.
The Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh will pose a challenge to the BJP in the state which sends the most number of MPs to the Lok Sabha. “If the current trends were to continue, the BJP is likely to lose a significant chunk of seats in this politically important state,” the pre-poll survey said. The BJP may continue to perform well in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even Chhattisgarh and make marginal gains in the East and North East. “Its tally in South is unlikely to see any visible improvement,” the survey said.
The pre-poll survey was conducted between March 24 and March 31 among 10,010 respondents spread across 19 states.
Times Now-VMR, CVoter surveys
An opinion poll by Times Now-VMR predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was likely to across the majority mark with 279 seats, reported The Economic Times. The Congress-led United Progressive alliance is predicted to come in second with 149 seats, while other parties, which include those close to the UPA and neutral parties, may get 115 seats.
The survey predicted a 40.8% vote share for NDA, 30.7% for UPA and 28.5% for others.
A CVoter-IANS poll tracker predicted that 167 marginal seats will decide the victory margin for the BJP and the NDA. Of the 167 marginal seats, the NDA was in the lead in 57 seats while the Opposition dominated in the remaining 110.
The survey predicted that the NDA’s seat tally is likely to be restricted to 210, while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance would 182 with others getting 151.
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