The India Meteorological Department on Friday said monsoon rainfall would be normal in August and September, PTI reported. Rainfall distribution till the end of July has been normal across the country, except in Bihar, Jharkhand and the northeastern states.
The Met department said rainfall across the country in the second half of the monsoon season is expected to be 95% of the Long Period Average, with a model error of plus or minus 8%. The Long Period Average is the average rainfall received by the country from June to September between 1951 and 2000, and is pegged at 89 cm.
“The rainfall during August 2018 is likely to be 96% plus or minus 9% of the LPA and expected to be higher than predicted in June,” the weather agency said. Monsoon is considered normal in the range of 96% to 104% of LPA while 90% to 96% of LPA range is considered “below normal”.
The Met department’s Additional Director General M Mohapatra said the normal limit between August and September is between 94% and 100% of the Long Period Average. “As per the forecast, the rains would be normal for August and September,” he told Mint. According to the department, there is 47% probability of monsoon being below normal (less than 94% of Long Period Average of 89 cm) in August and September and 53% probability of it being normal or above normal.
On Wednesday, private weather forecaster Skymet revised its monsoon rain forecast from normal to below normal. The forecaster said rainfall would be 92% of the Long Period Average. Skymet added that the country faced a 25% chance of drought – a situation where the rain is less than 90% of the Long Period Average.
In April, both the India Meteorological Department and Skymet predicted that the rainfall would be 100% of the Long Period Average.
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