India to receive below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall: IMD

India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.

This is the first time in 11 years that a shortfall in rainfall has been forecast.

The IMD has projected rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average of 87 cm for the June to September period.

The expected shortfall is primarily due to the likely development of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean after June, the weather agency said.

The El Niño weather phenomenon involves the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. It typically occurs every few years and has been linked to reduced monsoon rainfall over India. La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño.

The IMD said that the impact of El Niño is expected to become more pronounced in the latter half of the monsoon season, particularly in August and September, due to a lag between its development and its influence on Indian weather patterns.

At present, weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning towards neutral conditions.

Despite the expected El Niño, officials noted that certain factors could moderate its impact. These include the possible development of a “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season and slightly below-normal northern hemisphere snow cover between January and March, both of which tend to support higher rainfall in India.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the Indian Ocean counterpart of the El Niño-La Niña phenomena in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The forecast follows two consecutive years of surplus monsoon rainfall in 2024 and 2025.

The IMD’s early forecast, issued in mid-April, is intended to support planning for agriculture, water management, and energy needs.

India receives more than 70% of its annual rainfall during the monsoon months, making the season critical for farming, drinking water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and groundwater replenishment.