The average annual maximum temperature in India will increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2047 if emissions continue at the current rate, according to a new report released on Sunday by researchers at Azim Premji University.
The report, titled Climate Change Projections for India (2021 -2040), also predicted that the western part of India will experience a significant increase in precipitation, compared to most of the eastern and northeastern parts of the country.
The authors used statistical modelling based on temperature and precipitation data from the India Meteorological Department to make visualisations and projections.
The report examined the future of climate change in India using two different scenarios: a “Middle of the Road” scenario with moderate reductions in emissions, and a “Fossil-Fuelled Development” scenario with continued high emissions and heavy reliance on fossil fuels.
Under the “Middle of the Road” scenario, the average annual maximum temperature could take ten years longer to increase, reaching the 1.5 degree point in 2057.
As per the predictions in a “Fossil-Fuelled Development” scenario, the maximum temperatures in 249 districts could increase by one degree every year. Sixteen of these districts are in the Himalayan region.
When looking at rainfall, the authors predicted western India would see 20-60% increases in precipitation, whereas the Himalayas would see substantial rainfall deficits. Droughts in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh could have severe impacts on local agriculture, the report added.
Gujarat, Rajasthan and Ladakh were likely to experience severe flooding due to a notable rise in annual precipitation, according to the report.
Additionally, the increased soil erosion from precipitation would decrease soil fertility and agricultural productivity, it added.
The authors said that increased precipitation in higher altitude regions like Ladakh would also trigger worrying scenarios of climate-induced disasters like landslides and flooding that could cause a significant loss of traditional mud houses belonging to rural populations.
Drought-like conditions in the northern, central and northeastern states could potentially damage farm produce, which would be a stressor on rural communities as they rely on traditional agricultural practices, the report added.
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