There is an 80% likelihood of the annual average global temperature temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, the United Nations said on Wednesday.
A warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius can lead to severe climate change impacts and extreme weather.
Citing a report from the World Meteorological Organization released on the same day, the United Nations said that the global mean near-surface temperature between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 to 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the baseline years, which is 1850 to 1900.
The World Meteorological Organization is a specialised agency of the United Nations whose mandate covers weather, climate and water resources.
The report, titled “WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2024-2028)”, said there was an 86% chance that at least one of the subsequent years would set a new temperature record. Currently, 2023 is considered to be the warmest year on record, according to the global weather agency.
The agency said that the 80% chance of exceedance was close to zero in 2015 and had steadily risen since. “For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 20% chance of exceedance, and this increased to a 66% chance between 2023 and 2027.”
“We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” said António Guterres, the secretary-general of the United Nations, on Wednesday. “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.”
He said that the battle to limit the temperature rise would be “won or lost in the 2020s – under the watch of leaders today”.
Ko Barrett, the World Meteorological Organization’s deputy secretary-general, said that the world was “way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement”.
Under the 2015 agreement, countries had agreed to keep the long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
“We must urgently do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions, or we will pay an increasingly heavy price in terms of trillions of dollars in economic costs, millions of lives affected by more extreme weather and extensive damage to the environment and biodiversity,” Barrett said.
The report came as several parts of India reel under a heat wave. Several states have also reported deaths due to heat-related illnesses.
On May 29, a weather station at Mungeshpur in Delhi recorded an ambient temperature of 52.3 degrees Celsius, which was the highest temperature ever recorded in the country. On May 31, Maharashtra’s Nagpur recorded a temperature of 56 degrees Celsius. However, the weather agency attributed both numbers to likely errors in its sensors.
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