IMF chief warns of global recession, says growth rate forecast will be downgraded further

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday warned that risks of a global recession were rising and urged policymakers to take steps to avoid a “dangerous new normal”.

Delivering a speech ahead of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund next week, she said that the financial body will downgrade its forecast for growth in 2023 from the current estimate of 2.9%. This will be the fourth downward revision of the global growth rate by the International Monetary Fund this year, according to Reuters.

She said that the world’s largest economies – Europe, China and the United States – were slowing down, which in turn was hampering demand for exports from developing countries.

“Things are more likely to get worse before it gets better,” she said, adding that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the International Monetary Fund’s outlook on the economy.

One-third of world’s economies are expected to contract by two quarters, Georgieva said. “And, even when growth is positive, it will feel like a recession because of shrinking real incomes and rising prices,” she said.

The International Monetary Fund chief attributed the fears of recession to multiple shocks to the global economy over the last three years.

“First, Covid, then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and climate disasters on all continents,” she said. “These shocks have inflicted immeasurable harm on people’s lives.”

The International Monetary Fund will hold its annual meeting in Washington next week with finance ministers and central bank governors from more than 180 nations. The International Monetary Fund will also release its World Economic Outlook report for this year at the event.

In July, the financial body had slashed India’s economic growth forecast for 2022-’23 to 7.4% from its April estimate of 8.2%.