An independent health research centre at the University of Washington has said that more than three billion coronavirus infections driven by the Omicron variant could occur in the next two months. The detected infections will be three times more than the previous record highs.
The observations were made in a report by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“Peak transmission should be in mid-January with over 35 million global infections a day, nearly three times the Delta wave peak in April,” said Dr Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The report stated that the Omicron variant is more transmissible than the Delta variant. There is a 40% to 60% chance of the new strain evading the immune system’s response to it.
According to the research, 90% to 95% persons infected with the variant will be symptomatic – likely up from 40% for Delta and prior variants.
However, it also shared that based on the best available data, the infection-hospitalisation rate for Omicron is 97% to 99% lower than for the Delta variant.
Given the immune escape and transmissibility, Omicron will reach all countries soon, the report stated. Even countries with strict border controls like New Zealand are likely to witness a surge in cases led by the Omicron variant. It added that the United States could witness four lakh cases a day.
The report stated that increasing the use of masks to 80% and faster delivery of third doses of the coronavirus vaccines could reduce hospitalisations and deaths.
Persons who have not taken the vaccine and have not been infected by the virus are at greater risk, the report stated.
It suggested that employers and schools re-evaluate their approach to testing and quarantine. Going forward, tracking hospitalisations rather than reported cases will be a more relevant measure for local action than case counts.
“There is huge uncertainty particularly about the severity of Omicron which has a critical impact on the forecasts of hospitalisation and death,” the report stated. “More data in the next 3-4 weeks may change the scenario.”
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