Data check: No home advantage for Indian Super League teams this season, but will it matter?

The seventh edition of the Indian Super League is set to begin in unusual circumstances in Goa on Friday. With the Covid-19 pandemic raging across the globe and India being hit hard, the new season will be played entirely in Goa, at three neutral venues behind closed doors.

No fans and the absence of regular home grounds mean home advantage would be non-existent in the 2020-’21 campaign.

This lack of home advantage is likely to affect different teams in different ways. Not all teams have the same level of fan support and not all teams have turned their home grounds into fortresses.

In terms of sheer fan presence, ATK Mohun Bagan, Kerala Blasters, Bengaluru FC, FC Goa and Jamshedpur FC lead the way, enjoying stronger support from the fans compared to other teams.

It is important to note that the stadium capacity of every club’s home ground is different but no club in the ISL has come close to completely filling the stadium, thus the absolute numbers are comparable.

Kerala Blasters enjoy the greatest support from the fans in terms of attendance figures in stadium, followed by Jamshedpur FC and ATK. The Bengaluru fans aren’t too far behind and even though not the highest in number, the West Block Blues make a lot of noise.

However, looking beyond the fan attendance figures it’s important to note how these teams have performed at their home grounds in the ISL so far in order to establish a correlation between the fan support and team performance, if any.

The performances of ISL teams at home indicate that there isn’t any clear and direct connection between the number of fans in the stadium and the performance of the team. Kerala Blasters have the lowest win percent at home among teams who have played more than one season, despite having the best fan support.

Bengaluru FC are a team that does extremely well at home along with FC Goa, ATK and Chennaiyin with fairly good support from the audiences. The performance of Mumbai City FC at home is also quite good as they have a win percent of 48 while playing in Mumbai, the third-best tally in the league despite low fan attendances.

The points per game chart, however, shows that the teams that have done well at home are the teams that have been more successful overall in ISL. So does this mean doing well at home translates to success and will the absence of it spell trouble for these teams?

A look at the same statistics for performances away from home will provide a better picture.

The away performance table shows that the same teams that have the strongest records at home have done well away as well, thus playing down the significance of home advantage in the ISL. The best teams have got results across the board and teams that have struggled in the league’s six-year history have not faired well both home and away.

Kerala Blasters don’t have the best of home records but they have done even poorly away from home.

So will the lack of home advantage play any significant part in the way the 2020-’21 season pans out?

If the past numbers are anything to go by, it shouldn’t make a huge difference as the best teams will find a way of winning games irrespective of the exterior factors at play.

But with no home advantage whatsoever, will the gap between the stronger and weaker teams in ISL widen further?

A look at every team’s reliance on home grounds for earning points will provide a better idea.

All ISL teams score more points at home than on the road but the three most successful sides in the ISL – ATK Mohun Bagan, Chennaiyin and FC Goa are least reliant on matches at home for securing their points.

On the other hand, Kerala Blasters, NorthEast United, Jamshedpur FC, and Mumbai City FC, who haven’t been the best performers in the league over the six years, are slightly more dependent on matches at home to secure points and may suffer a bit more due to a lack of home advantage.

But overall, the numbers point to the fact that no club is too reliant on points from home matches with the Blasters being the only team that earns more than 60% of its points at home, further establishing the fact that home advantage is ISL isn’t very significant.

With the bio-bubble in place and a lack of proper pre-season, teams are likely to experience other difficulties this season. The lack of fans isn’t an ideal development but history shows that they won’t be too badly missed.