Data check: With Pliskova’s exit at the US Open, the women’s top seed tumble trend continues

Grand Slam tennis returned after more than a half a year with the ‘bubble-wrapped’ US Open but while the world around us changed, not everything in tennis changed along with it.

On the first day of second-round action in New York, the men’s and women’s top seeds matches were on simultaneously, but the result could not have been more different from each other and similar to so many Majors in the recent times.

While Novak Djokovic recovered from a dropped set to extend his unbeaten run in 2020 to 25, Karolina Pliskova was crushed in straight sets 6-1, 7-6(2) by world No 50 Caroline Garcia.

It was the biggest upset of the US Open so far, but, for many reasons, it didn’t come as much of a surprise.

Pliskova, an erratic player, is the top seed and a former finalist at Flushing Meadows. But the world No 3 was bumped up the charts because the top two Ashleigh Barty and Simona Halep opted out of the tournament due to safety reasons. She was up against Garcia, a former world No 4.

Additionally, in a pandemic-affected year, match practice is scarce and Pliskova was coming off a first-round exit at the US Open tune-up Cincinnati event. Even before the hiatus, she had a string of early exits in Melbourne, Dubai and Doha.

More importantly, the inconsistency at the top of women’s tennis is a long-time factor now and higher-ranked player exiting Slams early no longer has the same emotion as a shock upset. Even when the top seed exits on the third day of a Major. In fact, one now expects it and the relatively carnage-less first-round actually surprised fans.

The debate over this unpredictability / excitement / inconsistency – however ones wants to perceive it – has been long standing as well. Whether it is the depth of the draw, the best-of-three format, women’s tennis at Grand Slams has been a rollercoaster in the last few years and the ranking of the top seed generally follows the same patterns.

Since 2016, there have been six first-time world No 1s in WTA while Serena and Caroline Wozniacki were the only old names to feature in the list. While Angelique Kerber, Pliskova, Garbine Muguruza, Simona Halep, Naomi Osaka, Ashleigh Barty have all been successful at Slams – Pliskova the only one without a title – none have been consistent enough.

A look at the numbers from the last 10 years shows up some intriguing insights into this phenomenon.

Since 2011, only two top-seeded women not named Serena Williams have gone on to win the Grand Slam: Simona Halep at French Open in 2018 and Victoria Azarenka at 2013 Australian Open. (Serena as won a Major as top seed seven times in this period, while losing eight times.

(Note: Scroll sideways or swipe right to view all columns in the tables below)

As the table shows, the top seeds at a Grand Slam have rarely won the title, even when multiple Major winners such as Maria Sharapova or Li Na were playing. Wozniacki was infamous for being a Slam-less world no 1 till she won her first in 2018. Halep had a similar distinction and is still erratic as ever with two Majors to her name, with first-round exit as top seed.

But it also shows in the first half of the last decade, the eventual winner was generally a player in the top 10 of a loaded field. Of course, even then there were exceptions like Marion Bartoli or Flavia Pennetta winning the lone title.

Now, the field has become a lot more open in the last few years as multiple young Grand Slam champions have emerged but have been unable to sustain the momentum.

We saw a teen champion in Bianca Andreescu, seeded 15th, but she suffered an injury layoff soon after. Naomi Osaka was 20 years old and the 20th seed when she won US Open and then the fourth seed as she showed hope with consecutive Majors. But with the world No 1 ranking came pressure and she went downhill as top seed. There was a similar trend with Barty and Halep.

Both Osaka and Andreescu played their finals against Serena Williams, who in a way has contributed to this trend. The presence, or rather the absence of a player like Serena, is one of the bigger reasons behind this trend.

Since her last Grand Slam and subsequent maternity break in 2017, there has been a general upheaval at Majors which continued even after her return and saw her end up with four runner-up plates.

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Eight of the next 12 Majors since her Australian Open win saw first-time champions. Two of these beat the 38-year-old in the final while two more – Jelena Ostapenko and Sloane Stephens – were unseeded champions, both in the same year.

In fact, in the year she took a break, there were a record five world No 1 players in the WTA, highlighting her dominance in the last decade. A look at the top seeds in the table above will also suffice.

But with Serena, seeded third at US Open, a shadow of her former self since return to the circuit as a mother, the draw has been blown wide open. There are multiple talented women vying for the title and this competition in reflected in the mixed results of every Grand Slam. And this is not a bad thing.

The last four Slams finals show this best: former world No 1 Muguruza was the runner-up in Melbourne while teen Marketa Vondrousova was the surprise finalist in Paris while Serena was the runner-up in London and New York.

With the way things are going at US Open, another roller-coaster women’s final should not surprise anyone.