Data check: What makes Sourav Ganguly and Co’s epic win in Natwest Series 2002 final so special

Editor’s note: The article was originally published on 13 July 2020, 18 years to the day India completed the run-chase at Lord’s.

For the generation of cricket fans who grew up witnessing the brilliance of MS Dhoni and Virat Kohli-led Indian sides, clinically finishing off run-chases must be a normal feeling. Almost taken for granted, the rare occasions that India does not manage to chase down a score feels like a punch to the gut. India, simply put, are expected to chase down any score in the 50-overs format.

Of course, that was not always the case.

And, if ever there was a match that can be decisively considered to be the turning point in a team’s history, for India it was the Natwest Series final in 2002 at Lord’s.

Pause, rewind, play: Kaif and Yuvraj’s chase, Ganguly’s shirt twirl in the 2002 Natwest Trophy final

An epic turning point

Sample this, according to ESPNCricinfo: “In a four-year span against teams not named Zimbabwe or Bangladesh, India only had two wins chasing when Tendulkar failed to score a fifty. Between January 31, 1999, and July 13, 2002, India lost nine successive ODI finals. Five of those defeats were while chasing. Cometh the big game, choketh the side, it seemed.”

So much so that even Sourav Ganguly thought at the halfway stage of that final that India were heading for another defeat in a tournament under his leadership.

Before the Natwest 2002 final, in 107 attempts in ODI cricket, there were only seven successful run-chases of a 300-plus target. Australia, Sri Lanka and India had all done it twice each with India holding the record for the highest second innings score in an ODI win, achieved in the Independence Cup final against Pakistan in 1998.

(Scroll across or swipe right to view all the columns in the tables below)

Additionally, India’s record in multi-team tournament finals was abysmal in that period. After beating Zimbabwe in Sharjah in 1998, India had lost nine finals in tournaments involving three or more teams in 10 attempts. The one other match was a no-result.

The Natwest Final was the match that ended the forgettable streak for Indian cricket, adding more historical significance to the result.

The fact that it was a turning point can be gauged by the improvement of India’s results since. As we have seen in the recent past, India – under MS Dhoni as well as Virat Kohli – have overhauled targets of 300-plus much more frequently.

It was not just Indian cricket, chasing big scores in ODIs was not a norm back then at the turn of the century.

In the history of ODI cricket, a team has scored 300 or more in the second innings 151 times. Out of this, 87 were made in winning causes. That’s a success rate of 57.6%.

Pre-Natwest 2002, however, the success rate was 50% (8 out of 16). Only 16 instances of a 300-plus score were recorded in the second innings from the start of ODI cricket in 1971 till July 2002. In the 18 years since, that has happened, 135 times. Out of those instances, 79 were wins and four matches witnessed ties. That translates to a rate of 61.5% in which teams did not lose while chasing 300-plus scores, a near 12% increase starting from Ganguly and Co’s epic win.

And the increase is even more significant for Indian cricket as well.

It was also a significant moment in Indian cricket when it comes to chasing against the best teams. At that point in time (as was the case before) India’s record chasing against Australia, England, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, West Indies and South Africa was 14 wins and 21 losses (0.66 wins per loss) since the start of 2000. The win-loss ratio in chases against these teams went from 0.863 before Natwest 2002 final to 1.761 since the start of 2010.

It might be an oversimplification to say Ganguly’s team lifting the Natwest Series Trophy at Lord’s in 2002 is the sole reason for such a good recent record for India while chasing. But, arguably, it is the moment Indian cricket learned to believe.

(Statistics courtesy ESPNCricinfo Statsguru and Scroll.in research and valid as of July 13, 2020)