What next for Roger Federer?

When Roger Federer announced that he had undergone a second surgical procedure on his knee this year, which would keep him out of action till 2021, the reaction was varied.

Fans on social media rued the prolonged absence of the 38-year-old and the injury that didn’t heal despite months of rehab. Some encouraged him to take all the time he needs because the procedures were, after all, to prolong his career. Some noted the fortuitous timing as the coronavirus-induced suspension of the season meant that he was not losing points or missing out on titles.

And there was one faction which wondered whether this new setback would mean that one of the most celebrated careers in tennis is finally done defying eternal enemy of athletes: time.

On his part, Federer sounded optimistic about returning to his “highest level” after knee surgery.

What next?

There is little clarity and a lot to speculate about the news, much like the remainder of the tennis season in 2020. With the pandemic still raging and the global nature of the sport, it is hard to imagine the tour restarting in earnest any time soon even though the US Open and French Open are still scheduled to be held later in the year.

With such uncertainty, there is no better time to take a substantial amount of time off to recover. And as the Swiss star mentioned in his post, this strategy has helped him in the past as well. In 2016, he similarly underwent an arthroscopic surgery early in the year, struggled in a brief comeback and took the rest of the season off from July.

He famously returned from a six-month injury lay-off to claim the Australian Open in 2017, winning his eighth Wimbledon crown later that year. In 2018, he defended his title in Melbourne for a record-extending 20th Grand Slam.

However, even for an age-defying player like Federer, a second miraculous comeback from surgery is a tall ask. For one, he will be 39 when he returns to action if things go as planned. By the time Wimbledon and Olympics come along next year – arguably, the two biggest goals for him to achieve – he will be inching towards 40. As fit and fresh as he feels, playing at the highest level in your late 30s and keeping up with much younger players in the modern game is a daunting task.

Even by his ridiculously high standards, this is uncharted territory.

Upbeat and competitive

But the decision to undergo surgery again suggests Federer seems upbeat about his chances and competitiveness. As he should be, if the one tournament he played this year, the Australian Open, is any indication.

He reached the semi-finals on virtually one leg, after two five-set epic contests: a fifth-set tie-break escape against John Millman and saving seven match points to beat Tennys Sandgren. Though they were unheralded players and he was injured in the semis against Novak Djokovic, it showed his commitment and skill yet again.

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Last year, the world No 4 had a 53-10 win-loss record, won four titles and he came agonisingly close to another Grand Slam, failing to convert two championship points on his own serve against Djokovic at Wimbledon. He ended the season down in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals to Tsitsipas after beating Djokovic.

This mixed bag of results indicates a player in good touch, although not dominant. He may no longer be the force he was but can still trouble the best players on his day; not a mean feat for someone at his age in this era of endurance-based tennis.

Of course, these won’t count for much by the time 2021 comes about but will serve as morale boost, if nothing else, to a player who has seen it all.

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Motivation aplenty

Not that Federer, with his loaded trophy cabinet, is someone who needs added motivation to return to the game. His boundless enthusiasm for tennis has long been established and time has dulled none of the competitive spirit, as was evident when he took the court against Djokovic in Melbourne even when he gave himself a 3% chance of winning.

But if he did indeed need a push, there are two factors that could motivate Federer to keep going – the possibility of losing his grip on the men’s Grand Slam title record and an elusive Olympics singles gold medal.

After his 2019 US Open win, Rafael Nadal came, for the first time, within one title of Federer’s all-time record of 20 Majors while Djokovic captured his 17th at Australian Open.

While the two rivals are much younger and are primed to outlast his career, the Swiss won’t want to miss a shot at trying to extend the gap, especially after the close miss at Wimbledon. In April, Federer said he was “devastated” when Wimbledon was cancelled and the grass probably remains his best chance of adding to his Grand Slam collection.

At the Olympics, he won doubles gold in Beijing in 2008 with Stan Wawrinka but lost in the singles final to Andy Murray in London in 2012. The postponed Tokyo Games will almost certainly be Federer’s last opportunity to complete a Career Golden Slam, a feat within the realm of possibility even though he will turn 40 on the day of the closing ceremony next year.

And if he still cares about that sort of a thing, there is another longevity record he can claim. Federer is six ATP titles short of Jimmy Connors’ all-time record of 109.

A big draw

As for the tennis-watching public and the market, Federer remains a big draw no matter his results.

Last month, he topped Forbes’ list of the world’s highest-earning athletes, becoming the first tennis player to achieve the feat.

His last appearance on court was in front of nearly 52,000 fans – touted by organisers as a world record for tennis – at a charity match against Nadal in Cape Town in February. The tickets for the same were sold in minutes, as do the passes for Laver Cup – a now ATP sanctioned team-based tournament he co-founded in 2017.

By most indications, Federer is not done yet and nor are his fans and sponsors — Uniqlo’s 10-year deal with him despite looming retirement is an indication. But even if he has reached the end of the road after multiple surgeries in a year, it is unlikely that we have seen the last of him on a tennis court, in a competitive match or otherwise. The retirement questions can wait for now, after all he is preparing to step into the unknown with another surgery to extend his storied career.