World Cup 2019 semi-finals: New Zealand’s strengths, weaknesses and road to the knockouts

New Zealand started the 2019 World Cup with a bang and remained on top after six games but their form slowly tapered off towards the the end of the group stages. With Pakistan picking up pace following four consecutive wins, the Kiwis had net run rate to thank as they crashed to three consecutive defeats, but stumbled across the finish line.

As a result, the rampant Indian side start as clear favourites at Old Trafford on Tuesday. It doesn’t make for good reading when, going into the final matchday, Australia and India were jostling over who would face New Zealand in the semi-finals – with many experts almost brushing them off as the weakest among the four teams remaining in the competition.

The over-reliance on skipper Kane Williamson in the batting order has been a theme that has stayed constant through the group stages. After a rollicking start against Sri Lanka in their first match, Martin Guptill and Colin Munro’s form has been on a steady decline. The latter was dropped for his side’s last two group stage matches and Kiwis must hope Henry Nicholls comes good.

While Jimmy Neesham and Colin de Grandhomme have made useful contributions in the middle-order, Ross Taylor’s form in the tournament has been a big disappointment. Pacer Tim Southee did not enjoy a happy return to the side against England but Lockie Ferguson has been a revelation, and will slot in for the semis after recovering from hamstring tightness.

Trent Boult, who ran through India in the warm-up game before the event kicked off, will be the key for the Black Caps. Matt Henry needs to play a part too. Just like his side’s form, Henry’s form has been patchy after blazing away in the beginning. It will be interesting to see if Williamson plays Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi in a two-prong spin attack.

Strengths

• Have one of the best batsmen in the world in Kane Williamson but his record against India is modest by his standards. He has 895 runs at 38.91 but on current form but has a point to prove after back-to-back defeats.
• If there is movement on offer, we know how good Trent Boult can be. Indians are well aware of that as the left-armer accounted for the dismissals of KL Rahul, Shikhar Dhawan and Rohit Sharma in the warm-up game. Jimmy Neesham, another man in good form also made a useful contribution, picking up three wickets in that match.
• Pace is New Zealand’s go-to weapon and the 2015 finallists will be happy to know that the Indian top-order didn’t look all that comfortable against Kagiso Rabada, Mohammad Amir or Jofra Archer. This is where Lockie Ferguson has an important role in building pressure in the middle overs.

Weaknesses

• MS Dhoni has struggled with spin so far but can New Zealand expose that? Williamson has not shown much confidence in leg-spinner Ish Sodhi. Santner will have a huge part to play but the former Indian captain knows the left-arm spinner well having played together at Indian Premier League side Chennai Super Kings.
• Matt Henry has steadily lost steam. As Daniel Vettori put it, Sharma and Kohli get off to a start, New Zealand will be doomed, keeping in mind that their batting hasn’t really set the stage on fire. 
• What happens if Williamson fails? Their openers have struggled to buy a run and at the moment, look like sitting ducks against Mohammad Shami and Jasprit Bumrah. The key for New Zealand is to ensure that Williamson doesn’t have to face the new ball early, something that has happened with alarming regularity in the last few group games.

Key numbers

Williamson picks up the slack

The Black Caps have failed where others have succeeded with the bat early on, losing 13 wickets in the Powerplay at just 23.38 each – the worst in the competition. With Munro and Nicholls misfiring, the onus has been on Williamson to provide top-order impetus. He’s stepped up to the plate with 481 runs – but this has formed 28.73% of New Zealand’s total haul, suggesting an unhealthy dependence.

Mean in the middle

Williamson’s side have refused to let teams get away from them in the middle-overs, doing a superb containing job with the ball in that phase. Between overs 11 and 40, Kiwi bowlers were the most economical of all, conceding just 4.74 runs per over, and had the best bowling average by far, taking wickets at 28.63 apiece.

De Grandhomme has proven tough to get away and Ferguson’s pace packs a punch, so India’s customary gradual acceleration might be stunted at Old Trafford.

Spin falling flat

Spin has struggled throughout but with only seven wickets in the group stage, New Zealand’s twirlers were the most impotent of any semi-finalist.

Mitchell Santner bowled particularly well against Pakistan in helpful conditions but has been too consumed with stopping the flow of runs to pose a true wicket-taking threat.

And with playing spin second nature to India, Williamson will have to manage his bowlers carefully in Tuesday’s crunch contest.

(With ICC inputs)