World Cup 2019 qualification scenarios: England’s win over India a blow for Pakistan, Bangladesh

Note: This article was originally published on 26 June. It has now been updated after India vs England.

England’s victory against India has added to the intrigue around the semi-finals race of the 2019 ICC World Cup. The hosts were pegged as the favourites to reach the knockouts along with Australia, India and New Zealand, but their three defeats had ensured an exciting finish to the league stage.

With just about a week to go for the first semi-final, four out of the ten teams competing are out of contention while Australia (Surprise, surprise!) are the only team to have confirmed a berth in the knockout stage. Each side has one or two games still to play and we can expect plenty of ups and downs on the points table in the coming days.

Here’s a look at the semi-final qualification scenario for each team:

Australia [Qualified]

Match Remaining: Against South Africa.

With their victory against England last week, the defending champions became the first team to qualify for the semi-finals. Aaron Finch and Co will now be focusing on maintaining their winning momentum and finishing the league stage at the top of the table, which look all but a certainty after India’s defeat to England. A win against SA guarantees top spot for the defending champs.

New Zealand

Match Remaining: Against England.

Having suffered back-to-back defeats, the Kiwis have lost the momentum they had gained with the victories in their first five matches. More importantly, they have a slim chance of getting knocked-out. Yes, after cruising for most of the league stage, the Kiwis are in a pickle at the moment. If they lose their last game to England and Pakistan win theirs, then all these three teams will be tied on 11 points with five wins each. It’ll come down to NRR, which should favour Kane Williamson and Co. Even Bangladesh are in this equation as they can get to seven points with five victories to their name if they win their last two games against India and Pakistan.

India

Matches Remaining: Against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Despite tasting their first defeat of the tournament, Virat Kohli and Co remain in a comfortable position. Apart from Australia, who are already through to the semi-finals, India are the only team in contention that won’t be fretting at this point. One win in their remaining two games will see them through. A top-of-the-table finish is on the cards as well. But if India lose both their matches, they’ll be stuck on 11 points with five wins and will rely on NRR to take them through.

England

Match Remaining: Against New Zealand.

The resounding victory for the hosts against India dealt a major blow to Pakistan and Bangladesh, and knocked Sri Lanka out of the tournament. Eoin Morgan and Co will be through to the semi-finals if they defeat New Zealand. England can qualify for the knockouts even if they lose their last game. That will be possible if Bangladesh beat Pakistan but lose to India.

Pakistan

Matches Remaining: Against Bangladesh.

The dream is still alive, but India did not do their neighbours a favour with their defeat to England. After suffering a crushing defeat to their arch-rivals, Sarfaraz Ahmed and Co are on a three-match unbeaten run. To make it to the next round, they have to win their last match against Bangladesh and hope that England lose to New Zealand. But that’s their only hope pretty much.

A tie on 11 points is unlikely to go to Pakistan’s way. If India lose both their matches, NZ lose to England and Pakistan beat Bangladesh, there will be a three-way tie. According to ESPNCricinfo, “India will have to lose each of their matches by around 150 runs (or the sum of their losses will have to be around 300), and Pakistan will have to beat Bangladesh by around 200 runs. For Pakistan to go past New Zealand, the result of the two relevant matches - Pakistan beating Bangladesh and England beating New Zealand - will have to be in the region of around 220 runs each.”

Bangladesh

Matches Remaining: Against India and Pakistan.

Mashrafe Mortaza’s men have done well to remain in contention at this late stage in the tournament. Riding on Shakib Al Hasan’s all-round heroics, the Tigers have notched up some impressive victories. To qualify for the semi-finals, they’ll have to win their last two games and hope for New Zealand to beat England.

In case of a three-way tie between India, New Zealand and Bangladesh on 11 points (as detailed above, but Pakistan lose to Bangladesh) still favours Kohli and Williamson’s teams. The NRR swing needed for Bangladesh is not as bad as that for Pakistan, but still difficult. India and New Zealand will have to lose their matches by 75-80 runs for Bangladesh to pip them in NRR, according to ESPNCricinfo.

Sri Lanka [Eliminated]

Matches Remaining: Against West Indies and India.

England’s victory against India dealt the heaviest blow to Sri Lanka, who went crashing out of the tournament. Of course, they only have themselves to blame for the defeat against an eliminated South Africa in their last game. Even if they win their last two games, it won’t be enough. They can get to a maximum of ten points with four wins to their name, while England have five wins already. Their two washed-out games will be a bitter pill to swallow for the 1996 champions.

West Indies [Eliminated]

Matches Remaining: Against Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

Jason Holder’s West Indies became the third team to be knocked-out after their defeat against India.

South Africa [Eliminated]

Match Remaining: Against Australia.

Faf du Plessis and Co were the second team to be eliminated from the race to the semi-finals.

Afghanistan [Eliminated]

Match Remaining: Against West Indies.

Gulbadin Naib and his men were the first team to be out of contention for a semi-finals spot. They are yet to register a win.