If you watch tennis because you like suspense then the Gentlemen’s Singles event at the All England Club this year might not be your thing. In a tournament that prides itself on adhering to tradition, Novak Djokovic is becoming one himself. Come July 10, you can expect him to hold aloft the trophy for the third time in a row.
If there’s any doubt about the extent of his domination, here are some statistics. Going into Wimbledon, Djokovic has twice as many ranking points as world No 2 Andy Murray and more than 10,000 points over Roger Federer, whom many consider to be his greatest rival on grass. Djokovic comes into this year’s championships with a 28-match winning streak in Grand Slams, which is basically four straight majors. He currently holds all four slams, the first man to do so since Rod Laver back in 1969.
As Djokovic shakes off the red clay of Paris and prepares to take on the bouncy grass courts of Wimbledon, the other 127 competitors in the men’s field must be wondering how far they can go in the tournament that the Serbian is going to win. If you want suspense, let’s consider this question: Who will be the runner up on the men’s side this year?
Here are the players to watch out for who, because they are all in Djokovic’s half of the draw, are unlikely to reach the final. So the more precise question for them is: How far can they go before the run into the Djoker?
Milos Raonic – Observers have been hailing his arrival for a few years, but it’s in recent months that the big, powerful Canadian, nicknamed The Missile for his 240-kmph serve, has shown signs of causing serious upsets on big occasions. He reached the semi-final in Melbourne in January and lost to Andy Murray in a close final at Queens Club just over a week ago. This year, Raonic’s serve is not the only big weapon he’ll have in his arsenal. He is receiving help from his new training partner, an American called John McEnroe. If the 25-year-old wants to reach a Grand Slam final, the time is now, but unfortunately Raonic is seeded to play Djokovic in the quarter-finals.
Roger Federer – Fedfans will not be thrilled to hear this, but the Swiss is an underdog this year, and not just against the world No 1. The seven-time Wimbledon champion had knee surgery in February, followed by a back injury that kept him out of the French Open. He has yet to win a single title this year and recently lost to a teenager for the first time in 10 years at his grass-court warm up event in Halle. Federer comes into his 18th consecutive Wimbledon looking like what he really is – a veteran. As he plays his way into the tournament, he’s likely to gain in confidence and form. Still, if he gets to the semi-final this year, I reckon he’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Kei Nishikori – The fifth seed from Japan has not lived up to the promise he showed a couple of years ago when he reached the US Open final. Since then, his results have been disappointing. Grass is not his favorite surface and at Halle this year he was forced to withdraw with an injury. He says he’s not 100%, but getting better and as this article was being written, on Day One of the tournament, he had beaten Australia’s hard-hitting grass-court player Sam Groth in straight sets. He should grow in confidence and has a fairly easy draw until the fourth round, which should produce a very interesting match with the man listed below.
Marin Cilic – Here’s one of the two players on our list who shocked the world by winning the US Open in recent times and then promptly got injured, thus ruining his next couple of seasons. This year, Cilic has a very tough draw and could meet Ivo Karlovic in a battle of booming serves in the third round. But Cilic’s game is well-suited to grass and, if he’s fit, we could see a rematch of the 2014 US Open final between Nishikori and Cilic in the fourth round. The winner will probably be a favorite against Federer in the quarter-final, but certainly not the crowd favorite.
Now for the other half of the draw. These players are going to have their eyes on the prize – a spot in the last match of Wimbledon this year.
Andy Murray – Ranked No 2 in the world, Murray, of course, will enjoy British support, which he ought to enjoy while he can before he begins to play for an independent Scotland. Murray, who in 2013 became the first British man to win the title in 77 years, knows how it feels to win on Center Court. He won the warm-up event at Queens Club and, more importantly, has made up with Ivan Lendl who will be in his corner once more. The last time these two joined forces, the outcome was pretty good. Murray was the losing finalist at both the Australian Open and the French Open this year, and there’s no reason why he cannot complete his own runner-up Grand Slam in 2016.
Dominic Thiem – The 22-year-old Austrian leads the charge of the youth brigade, and, after Djokovic, might just be the hottest player on the men’s tour right now. He has already won four titles in 2016, including his very first one on grass at Stuttgart. That win pushed Thiem into the top 10 for the first time, where he is likely to remain for a while. He is a strong, confident player and is being touted as a future No 1 (that is, when Djokovic retires). He has a tricky draw, but if there’s a dark horse in this event, it has to be Thiem.
Alexander Zverev – At Halle, this 19-year-old German became the first teenager to beat Federer in a decade. Earlier this year, after Rafael Nadal came back from the brink of defeat against Zverev at Indian Wells, he said the Russian was “a clear, possible, future No 1.” His athletic game and massive serve are perfectly suited for grass. Seeded at a Grand Slam for the first time, Sascha, as he is nicknamed, might not be ready for the runner’s up spot quite yet. But don’t be surprised if he makes a few headlines in the next two weeks.
Nick Kyrgios – The 21-year-old carries Aussie hopes on grass these days. Two years ago, he famously shocked the tennis world by defeating Nadal on Center Court during his Wimbledon debut. Since then, Kyrgios’s behavior has been more sensational than his tennis. This year, he has a tough first round match against his mentor Radek Stepanek. If he were to win that, we are in for a treat in the second round where he will probably take on Nadal’s conqueror from last year, Dustin Brown. That should be a very entertaining match between two charismatic players, neither of whom will reach the final this year.
Juan Martin Del Potro – The comeback kid. Remember US Open 2009? Yes, he won it. Since, then, injuries have laid the big guy low. Once again, he’s trying to find his way back towards the top of men’s tennis. It is his first Grand Slam appearance since the Australian Open in 2014 and who could possibly not wish him well? Now 27 years old and unseeded, JMDP remembers playing in the semi-finals at Wimbledon against Djokovic a few years ago and claims that he is finally “almost feeling 100%”. This is going to be one of the most sentimental stories this year.
Stanislas Wawrinka – He is seeded to meet Del Potro in the second round, where the crowd is likely to cheer loudly for the Argentine. In the past couple of years, Wawrinka has proved that he deserves to be on every list of contenders for a title. He’s one of the few guys who’s beaten Djokovic on the way to two Grand Slam titles of his own. He has a fairly straightforward draw at Wimbledon until he runs into Thiem. Still, grass is not really his thing and while he’s unlikely to suffer an early upset, a final appearance here would be a surprise.
Richard Gasquet – This is the Frenchman most likely to make a deep run here. The stylish player with the sublime backhand has flown below the radar in the last few years, particularly since his brief suspension for testing positive for cocaine. But the seventh seed has been quiet and consistent in the last couple of years and has an excellent draw here this year. A semi-finalist last year, Reeshard has a very good chance of getting past his countryman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. If he and Murray both play their parts well, we could have a rematch of their French Open quarter-final match at the same stage across the channel.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych – These two deserve to be grouped together because they might be the most talented players of the last 10 years never to have won a Grand Slam. Both are former finalists – at the Australian Open and Wimbledon respectively – and if they are healthy and play to their potential, they can get there again. But, after rooting for them time and again only to be disappointed, it’s hard to be optimistic. Tsonga, whose athleticism and personality make him so entertaining to watch, has not played since retiring with an injury from the third round of the French Open last month. Berdych, who is actually the only player apart from Djokovic and Murray to have reached the quarter-finals in both Grand Slams played so far this year, has had a pretty dismal run-up to Wimbledon. Still, these are two players who can beat anyone on their day and not have it be considered a real upset. Okay, almost anyone.
This list might sound facetious to some, but it is intended to be taken seriously. One of the players I would have listed as a dark horse is the aggressive South African Kevin Anderson, who led Djokovic by two sets to love a year ago in the fourth round, but lost on the first day this year as this article was being written. This deserves a mention, just to demonstrate that men’s tennis is still exciting. Upsets can and will happen, throughout the tournament. There is plenty of uncertainty. The field is really quite open and the question posed at the top of this article is a genuine and important one. We have no idea which of these men will make it to through to the final. The only thing we can confidently predict is who will beat him when he gets there.
Oindrila Mukherjee tweets here.
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