Forget the big guns, one of these dark horses could be the team to watch out for at Euro 2016

Back in the summer of 2008, a diminutive winger was taking the football world by storm. After having guided his team Zenit Saint Petersburg to a double of the Russian League and the UEFA Cup, he was named Man of the Match in the UEFA Cup final, and also topped the list for assists in UEFA competitions that season.

Andrey Arshavin, however, was not supposed to have that sort of impact at Euro 2008. He was suspended for his country’s first two games. Placed in a tough group with eventual winners Spain, defending champs Greece and Sweden, the Russians were expected to go home early.

Arshavin came into the line-up for his country’s last group stage match against Sweden with his team desperately needing a win to stay alive. He scored one and assisted another in Russia’s 2-0 victory.

In the quarterfinals, he followed it up with a sublime performance against the Netherlands who had brushed aside Italy 3-0 and France 4-1 in the group stage. With the match heading into extra time, Arshavin scored a goal and assisted another to dispatch the Dutch and seal a spot in the Team of the Tournament.

Russia and Turkey both reached the semi-finals of Euro 2008, but it was not the first instance of a country punching above their weight at the Euros. The biggest shock of them all was in Euro 2004, when Greece overcame 150-1 odds and beat host nation Portugal twice, including in the final, to seal an unlikely triumph.

Here's a shortlist of the dark horses that could change the winners' line-up in Euro 2016:

Poland promise a lot

Co-hosts four years ago, Poland were expected to go a long way, but were unable to win a game and crashed out in the group stage. Four years later, they will be looking to correct that statistic as they look to progress further this time.

In Robert Lewandowski they have a talismanic striker coveted by every club in Europe. Lewandowski had a phenomenal season with Bayern Munich, scoring 31 goals in the Bundesliga. He’s not been goal-shy on the international scene either, top-scoring with 13 goals in the qualifying campaign, where Poland netted a total of 33, both records for the Euro 2016 qualifiers.

The key difference with Euro 2012 is that the striker now has ample support in the form of Ajax striker Arkadiusz Milik, who himself scored five in the qualifiers. The squad also has the likes of Lukasz Piszczek, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Gregorz Krychowiak to supplement the attack. As their 2-0 qualifying win over world champions Germany showed, the frontline can be very effective indeed.

Poland should comfortably finish second or higher in their group, also featuring Germany, Northern Ireland and Ukraine, and will be setting their sights on reaching the last eight and maybe go even further. Manager Adam Nawalka has a functional squad which cannot and should not be underestimated.

Iceland rely on defensive stability

When Iceland drew a spot in a qualifying group alongside the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Turkey, things looked very bleak. As it happened, they became the smallest nation ever, with a population of just 330,000, to qualify for the finals, even beating Netherlands twice in the process.

Iceland play a compact, functional style of football, placing defensive stability first, but when they surge forward, they do have players who can do the business. Their lynchpin will without a doubt be Gylfi Sigurdsson, who, despite the struggles of parent club Swansea, has been one of their go-to players this season.

The striking department has a familiar name in the form of Eidur Gudjohnsen, who, at the age of 37, will be looking to make one last mark on the European stage. The team is managed jointly by Lars Lagerback and Heimir Hallgrimsson, the former with the European pedigree of having led native Sweden to five international tournaments as manager.

Though one of the four debutants, the team, which only conceded six times in ten qualifying matches, can definitely pull off a surprise or two.

Croatia’s midfield riches

Croatia are probably the only team in this tournament who would fit both into the dark horses as well as heavyweights category. Making their fourth straight finals appearance, the team, led by Ante Cacic, is expected to make a dent in a group featuring reigning champions Spain, Turkey and the Czech Republic.

In Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic, Ivan Rakitic and Mateo Kovacic, they have a quartet of midfielders to die for – one that any glory-seeking nation at the Championships would gladly approve of. And that’s not all. Ante Coric and Marko Rog, both from Dinamo Zagreb, and Marcelo Brozovic may only be squad players, but are also regarded as some of the brightest young talents around.

The strikers are no slouches either, and the attack is likely to be spearheaded by Mario Mandzukic of Juventus. Andrej Kramaric and Nikola Kalinic will look to provide adequate support.

Croatia’s qualifying campaign was marred by ugly scenes after they were deducted a point for racist behaviour in their match against Italy, but they still managed to score the most goals (20) and concede the least (five).

Placed in a tough group, their matches against the Turks and the Czechs will be intense, but expect the Croats to seal that second qualifying spot in their group next to the Spanish.

Austria’s resurgence has come at the right time

Austria enjoyed a hugely impressive qualifying campaign, winning 28 points out of a possible 30, fewer than only England. The squad is brimming with talent who play in top European Leagues, something which couldn’t be said for Austrian teams of the recent past.

The star man for this team has to be Bayern’s David Alaba, who plays left-back at club level but likes to operate in the central midfield position for his country. His positional flexibility means that the likes of Martin Harnik, Zlatko Junuzovic and Julian Baumgartlinger can play around him, without losing positional balance.

Top scorer in qualifying games with seven goals, Marc Janko will share attacking duties with Stoke City’s Marko Arnautovic, who has had an impressive season himself. Left-back and captain Christian Fuchs is fresh from winning the Premier League title with Leicester and will look to inject some of that enthusiasm into his side.

Fellow Premier League defenders Sebastian Prodl of Watford and Kevin Wimmer of Tottenham present useful options in defence, and Marcel Koller’s team could prove hard to break down. Drawn alongside Iceland, Portugal and Hungary, this outstanding generation of Austrian players might just top Group F.