With just four games to go in the 2016 Indian Premier League, the tournament has rarely seen such a razor's edge before. No team has as yet made it to the playoffs, even at this late stage, though two – Kings XI Punjab and Rising Pune Supergiants - are out of the reckoning.
Each of the eight teams still has a game to go with Sunrisers Hyderabad and Gujarat Lions in the top two positions, with 16 points each. Below them are four teams, all stuck on 14 points, with different net run rates: Royal Challengers Bangalore in third, Kolkata Knight Riders in fourth, Mumbai Indians in fifth and Delhi Daredevils in sixth.
For all the talk about this season being boring, this one has gone down to the wire and it’s still wide open. Saturday’s first match is inconsequential with the bottom two teams, Kings XI Punjab and Rising Pune Supergiants playing each other for the wooden spoon. But much hinges on the other three games over the weekend:
Gujarat Lions v Mumbai Indians in Kanpur on Saturday, 8 PM
Kolkata Knight Riders v Sunrisers Hyderabad in Kolkata, Sunday, 4 PM
Delhi Daredevils v Royal Challengers Bangalore, Sunday, 4 PM.
Here’s a look at the possible combinations and permutations:
Scenario 1
Gujarat beat Mumbai, Hyderabad beat Kolkata, Bangalore beat Delhi
Gujarat and Hyderabad’s wins would take them to 18 points each and the first two spots. Since Hyderabad has a better NRR than Gujarat, they would probably finish on top. Bangalore's defeating Delhi would take them to 16 points and because of their massive NRR, would ensure they finish in third spot. Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi would be stuck on 14 points and it would come down to NRR again for the fourth spot. In such a case, Kolkata have a marginally better net run rate (+0.02 compared to Mumbai’s -0.08 and Delhi’s -0.01) which could take them through.
Scenario 2
Gujarat beat Mumbai, Hyderabad beat Kolkata, Delhi beat Bangalore
Gujarat and Hyderabad would still finish on one and two but Delhi’s victory over Bangalore would take them to 16 and a definite third. However Bangalore would still be strongly placed despite the loss because of Mumbai and Kolkata’s defeats – all three teams would be stuck on 14 and Bangalore’s NRR would definitely take them through.
Scenario 3
Mumbai beat Gujarat, Hyderabad beat Kolkata, Bangalore beat Delhi
Hyderabad’s win over Kolkata would take them to 18 and an undisputed first place finish. But Gujarat’s loss to Mumbai and Bangalore’s victory over Delhi would mean three teams, Gujarat, Bangalore and Mumbai, stuck on 16 and taking the second, third and fourth positions – and elimination for Kolkata from the playoffs race. If it comes down to NRR, Bangalore are likely to finish second, Mumbai third and Gujarat fourth.
Scenario 4
Mumbai beat Gujarat, Hyderabad beat Kolkata, Delhi beat Bangalore
A defeat to Delhi would end Virat Kohli and Bangalore’s hopes and ensure Delhi finish in the top four. The other standings would be akin to the previous scenario – Hyderabad finishing on top with 18 points, and Mumbai, Delhi and Gujarat taking the other three spots. Net run rate will decide who is second, third and fourth.
Scenario 5
Gujarat beat Mumbai, Kolkata beat Hyderabad, Delhi beat Bangalore
The only certain way Shah Rukh Khan’s Kolkata Knight Riders can hope to progress to the playoffs is by beating Sunrisers Hyderabad. Wins for Gujarat and Delhi in their respective games would mean Gujarat top the table, with Hyderabad, Kolkata and Delhi in the next three spots with 16 points. Hyderabad have a strong NRR (+0.35) which should help them take the second spot.
Scenario 6
Gujarat beat Mumbai, Kolkata beat Hyderabad, Bangalore beat Delhi
Similar to the previous situation, but Bangalore would take Delhi’s place and by dint of their superior run rate, would probably finish over Kolkata and even Hyderabad. That would mean Gujarat first with 18 points, followed by Bangalore (16 but higher NRR), Hyderabad and then Kolkata
Scenario 7
Mumbai beat Gujarat, Kolkata beat Hyderabad, Bangalore beat Delhi
This is one of two scenarios where five teams can finish on 16 points. Gujarat's losing to Mumbai would mean both teams ending on 16, with Kolkata and Hyderabad also on 16 if Gautam Gambhir’s team defeat David Warner’s men on Sunday. Whichever of Bangalore and Delhi win would also go up to 16. Then it would all come down to NRR, where Hyderabad and Bangalore are most strongly placed
Scenario 8
Mumbai beat Gujarat, Kolkata beat Hyderabad, Delhi beat Bangalore
The same scenario as above, except Delhi would take Bangalore’s place. This would make it marginally easier for Kolkata since Delhi do not have as high a net run rate as Bangalore.
These are the scenarios if all three games are completed. However, there yet another possibility. Cyclone Roanu is currently blowing over India’s east coast and apart from causing destruction, could affect the cricket as well. Specifically, the forecast for Kolkata’s game against Hyderabad on Sunday isn’t the best. And if it gets rained out, Kolkata would finish on 15 points and Hyderabad on 17 points. That would make the Delhi-Bangalore game a straight knockout.
Wash-out scenarios
- If Gujarat defeat Mumbai, then Kolkata are through. The table would then look like this: Gujarat Lions first with 18 points, Sunrisers Hyderabad with 17 points, Royal Challengers Bangalore/Delhi Daredevils with 16 points and Kolkata Knight Riders with 15 points
- On the other hand, a Mumbai win for Gujarat takes Kolkata out of the tournament. In such a case, Hyderabad would finish on top with 17 points, while Gujarat, Mumbai and the winner of Delhi v Bangalore would be locked at sixteen points and take the next three spots. Kolkata with only 15 points would finish fifth.
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