As Roland Garros approaches, it's time for Rafael Nadal to go big or go home

The clear ceiling over the 21st century men’s tennis court was shattered in 2011 when Novak Djokovic carved out his own place in a sport dominated by two of its greatest, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. The FedEx-Nadal rivalry raged for half a decade and featured such masterpieces as the 2008 Wimbledon final – possibly the greatest tennis match of all-time.

Since then, Djokovic’s rise as a “mean, lean, tennis machine” and a possible GOAT (Greatest of All Time) candidate has shown that the ceiling has truly broken, and for some times now, it has appeared that what has fallen through the cracks is the Rafael Nadal of old – the vanquisher of the once invincible Roger Federer.

Both Federer and Nadal are no longer young, and have dropped well below their best. But while Federer’s effortless brand of pure artistry masquerading as tennis still sustains him at 34 – though he's far from his unbeatable self – Nadal’s career graph is wobbling as he nears 30. However. Is that an unsteady resurgence we see in him now in the form of recent victories at the Barcelona Open and the Monte Carlo Masters, following a truly forgettable 2015 season?

The trouble is, defeats on his favourite clay surface to Djokovic in the quarter-finals of the Rome Masters and, more worryingly, to Andy Murray in the semi-final of the Madrid Open, show just how unsteady this revival might be. And it is increasingly looking like the French Open, starting on Sunday, could be the Spaniard southpaw’s last stand to win a 15th Grand Slam and a record tenth French Open title. Nadal may be playing on his favourite surface, but much more than memories of winning will be required as he enters, perhaps for the first time in a decade, not as one of the favourites.

Visible fault-lines

This first at the French Open is preceded by a series of other worrying firsts for Nadal. For instance, his defeat to fellow Spaniard Fernando Verdasco at the Australian Open this year was his first exit from a Grand Slam first round since that 2013 Wimbledon loss to Steve Darcis, described as “one of the most astonishing Wimbledon upsets of modern tennis”. The southpaw’s ranking fell below the top ten for the first time in a decade in 2015. In three successive years at the Wimbledon, Nadal has been eliminated by players with rankings in the triple digits.

As if to further illustrate the point of his failing fitness, Rafa had to withdraw from the Miami Open – the first time he has withdrawn from a match in six years — held last month in the third round after feeling “faint” and “a bit scared” owing to a low blood-pressure problem in conditions which, though trying, were far from unfamiliar.

The consequence has been that critics have already heralded the decline of the once-great Rafa. His official ranking corroborates the pundits’ views, but his confidence and body-language further the speculations that the hounds of time may be snapping at the Spaniard’s heels.

The style versus longevity debate

It is true that some greats have fought this siege of age. Roger Federer himself – five years Nadal’s senior in the sport – has largely been an example of this, even though, ironically, he has pulled out of the French Open so as not to aggravate a knee he had surgery on.

In fact, it was Nadal who had brought life back to the men’s game, which had become a one-sided, predictable monotone of the Swiss’ domination. However, Nadal’s very style – the antithesis of Fed-Ex’s effortless genius – which made him a crowd darling and Federer’s arch-nemesis has contributed greatly to his untimely decline into “the oldest 29-year old in sports” as Chris Chase of USA Today described him.

Nadal’s style was characterised by running down balls with extraordinary speed and endurance. At his best, he ran around the court as much as Lyetton Hewitt in his prime, except with more intent and options than the Australian possessed.

It was this impenetrable defence that characterised his final triumph over Federer in Wimbledon 2008 on the third attempt, marking the Spaniard as an absolute nuisance to his opponents all through his prime, and, often, a gladiator-par-excellence to a public so used to Federer’s – and before him, Sampras’s – often placid, inexpressive, too-perfect demeanour and genius.

Unfortunately, Nadal’s passion has nearly burnt out his body. Injuries have increasingly plagued him, and pundits have often expressed bewilderment at how the Spaniard’s body has actually held up as well as it has. True to his spirit, Nadal has fought his injuries, but each time he has come back a lesser player than he left, and his record on grass and hard-courts show it, leaving only his home turf of clay as the last bastion.

One last stand

Even so, his performances at Barcelona and Monte Carlo serve as reminders that you can never count Rafa out. The performances came on clay, where for years Nadal has been the undisputed king, winning the French Open five times in a row from 2009 to 2014.

Even in his defeat to Djokovic in Rome, the Spaniard had chances that he failed to convert. Nadal has won only 57% of deciding sets since 2015, compared to 83% in 2013-14, signalling a drop in converting pressure points – something that plagued him against Djokovic in Rome. With time and age, that statistic is likely to get worse, which leaves him with perhaps one last chance to go all out for a Grand Slam on his favourite turf while he still has time.

His results at Barcelona and Monte-Carlo show the feat is not impossible. However, with Djokovic looking well-nigh invincible in his current form despite the blip against Murray in the Rome Masters final, the scene is set for Rafa’s sheer spirit to triumph over the perfect tennis machine that Djokovic has become.

Knowing his nature, these are odds that could very well serve to only motivate the Spaniard, which would bring some excitement to a French Open that seems to be a foregone conclusion to most at this point.