Here we are again. Another Premier League season has come to a close and the only pre-season prediction that seems to have been right on the money is Arsenal finishing in the top four without winning the title. On Sunday, with one round of matches remaining in the 2015-16 Premier League campaign, Arsenal needed Tottenham Hotspur to lose to have any chance of clinching second spot.
Tottenham lost heavily and Arsenal won comfortably. But this is scant comfort for the Gunners, despite overtaking their fiercest rivals.
After going unbeaten and winning the Premier League title in 2003-04, and then finishing as runners-up to Chelsea in 2004-05, Arsenal have finished either third or fourth since then, before this second place came along. Even this season, Arsenal needed Spurs to be completely derailed at the end to upstage them. The sequence of finishing third or fourth was as unique as it is mind-boggling and highly frustrating for Arsenal fans. The mind-boggling part is that in all this time it has only been Arsene Wenger at the helm.
Two phases
Wenger has gone through two phases as Arsenal manager. The first was his being a champion or coming in second. In his first full season in 1997-98, he won the Premier League and FA Cup double. The next three seasons, he guided Arsenal to consecutive second-placed finishes behind Manchester United. In 2001-02, he again won the double of the Premier League and FA Cup.
The next season saw Arsenal being pipped right at the end by United, but there was silverware as they defended the FA Cup. The two seasons that followed were also highly productive.
The second phase follows right after that. From 2005-06 onwards, Wenger has steered Arsenal to either third or fourth. Arsenal are one of the so-called big clubs in England. At any other of these big clubs, Wenger, or for that matter any manager, would've been sacked long ago.
Other managers have lost jobs after securing league titles and Champions League trophies before actually getting a chance to properly defend it. But for some reason or the other, Arsenal have stuck with Wenger throughout.
Arsenal and Wenger have shown a lot of promise in the last 11 years, but withered away towards the business end every time. The fans have been very supportive of the Frenchman as his early period of success garnered a lot of goodwill. But over the last few seasons, there has been a gradual increase in fans wanting a change. Many want more funds to be made available so that Arsenal buy the best players, but some want Wenger to resign, or if it comes to it – be sacked.
Wenger out?
The Frenchman has one more year left in his current deal and he will definitely see out his contract. In the penultimate home game where Arsenal played against Norwich City, there were fans showing signs asking Wenger to go. It must be difficult for him to see this after all that he has achieved at the club. But the fans should be careful what they wish for.
Next season will see some of the biggest names in club management plying their trade in the Premier League. Some will be newcomers to England's top division, but they bring in a wealth of experience. Many Arsenal fans would want the club to go all out and get Diego Simeone or give the job to former players like Thierry Henry, despite his having no experience in management.
Their argument: if there is a change, how worse can it get? Arsenal will still finish in the top four, whether Wenger is around or not. But therein lies the most important point: what guarantee is there that the successor will finish in the top four?
This question is even more relevant when one considers what has transpired this season. Leicester City – with 5,000:1 odds of winning the title at the beginning of the season – are champions. Tottenham were the only team to put up any type of challenge against Leicester, despite eventually finishing third as they drew two and lost as many of their final four matches.
The 2015-16 season can be seen as a complete one-off, when almost all the big clubs failed. Will the next season be similar? History suggests that it won't happen again. The big guns, with all their wealth, will come out blazing.
The newcomers and others
Manchester City landed the biggest coup when they announced the appointment of Pep Guardiola in February 2016. The Catalan has had seven full years in management and has won six league titles, two Champions League trophies and a bunch of Cup titles. With the wealth at City's disposal, Guardiola will get almost all the players he wants. With a bit of tweaking, the blue side of Manchester will be genuine title favourites next term.
Not to be scuppered by City's seemingly bottomless pit of cash, Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich will open his cheque book and allow his new manager Antonio Conté to buy the players he wants. Conté won three Serie A titles in a row with Juventus, going unbeaten in the first. He has a reputation of being a hard man, who demands the utmost from his players.
Mauricio Pochettino has done wonders in his relative short time with Tottenham and they will only get better next season. He has the core set of players he wants, and Spurs are under no obligation to sell. With a few good additions in the transfer window, they should be good to go.
Liverpool have the eccentric Jurgen Klopp with them. He helped the modest Borussia Dortmund fight toe-to-toe with German powerhouse Bayern Munich for most of the period between 2010 to 2015. Liverpool have already shown incredible signs of improvement under him. He could very well lead them to a highly successful season.
Manchester United might appoint Jose Mourinho after two fairly underwhelming seasons with Louis van Gaal. Mourinho might have had a wretched 2015-16 campaign with Chelsea, but his track record shows that he will deliver success (in terms of trophies).
Then there is Leicester City – the champions. Despite their achievements this term, people are already writing them off for next season. That is unfair on Leicester and manager Claudio Ranieri. The 5000:1 odds will surely be better at the start of the 2016/17 season.
There are also a whole bunch of other clubs who will get a lot of money as the new Premier League TV deal kicks in from next season. These clubs are bound to get stronger.
Wenger's importance
All this brings us back to the importance of Wenger to Arsenal. He has faced great odds before and still managed to help Arsenal finish in the top four. After moving to the Emirates Stadium from the start of the 2006-07 season, Arsenal have had to sell their best players year-in-year-out. They also seem to suffer more injuries than any other club. Despite all this, Wenger has managed the minimum objective – finish in the top four and ensure continued Champions League football.
There is no absolute guarantee that either Guardiola or Conté will succeed immediately. Van Gaal came with an impressive track-record, but after spending nearly £250 million , the United team seems to have regressed. There is also no guarantee that either Simeone or Henry will hit the ground running quickly if they arrive in North London. Tottenham have had an impressive season and Leicester the greatest ever, but there is no guarantee of a repeat. It is a possibility, but not a surety.
Wenger is the longest-serving manager left in the Premier League and his experience will help Arsenal. Finishing in the Champions League spots is very important as it increases the revenue and helps the clubs buy the better players. With all the big-name managers battling it out next season, Arsenal need to finish in the top four. That's how important playing in the Champions League is.
For Wenger to operate successfully, he needs to be backed by the people running the club and the fans. Too much negativity during home matches can lead to players under-performing and then the manager's job getting untenable.
While that is still a far-fetched thought, the situation is not ideal. So, for now, Arsenal fans need to be satisfied by the one thing that is almost always guaranteed at the end of every Premier League season – Arsene Wenger guiding Arsenal to a top-four finish and into the Champions League.
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