We’re at that stage in the IPL. The calculators are out and the numbers are being crunched. Net run rates are being closely examined. With just a few more to play, it’s the final scramble to secure a place in the playoffs.
It’s rush-hour traffic at the top. Other than Delhi and Punjab who find themselves languishing in the bottom two, every other team finds themselves with a chance. What do they each need to do?
Looking shaky at the top
The Chennai Super Kings sit pretty on top of the table but they won’t exactly be in the mood to celebrate. The loss against Delhi has made things a little worrisome for them.
Chennai are at 16 points with a game in hand against Punjab away. They will desperately want to win that game and get some breathing space from the tangle below. A loss to Punjab will not eliminate them from the tournament though – it will then come down to net run rate and Chennai, with a NRR of +0.6, has the best NRR among all the teams.
However, Chennai wouldn’t want to go down that route for a simple reason: a win in their last game will keep them in strong contention for finishing first or second in the league. Obviously, that will allow Chennai two shots at entering the final, something Dhoni will be very mindful of.
Congestion below
Below CSK, there’s a complete free-for-all.
First, a dampener for Kolkata Knight Riders fans. They still haven’t qualified for the playoffs. And if they conspire to lose their next two matches with other results not going their way, there is a chance they might not make it.
KKR’s next two matches are both away games, against Mumbai Indians and Rajasthan Royals. They’ve lost both their last two away games, one against Chennai and the other against Bangalore. If KKR lose both their matches and the other teams in the fray (Hyderabad, Bangalore, Rajasthan, Mumbai) maintain their winning ways, KKR will be stuck on 15. At that point, they will slip behind the other teams on 16 and will rue the washed-out game against Rajasthan which only got them a point.
Conversely, Sunrisers Hyderabad below them are a point less but play both their last two matches at home. Winning both their games will guarantee them a place in the playoffs, but even winning one out of two may just be enough. The advantage for Hyderabad is their last game against Mumbai is also the last game of the league phase. They can approach that game knowing exactly what they need to do to qualify.
Rajasthan Royals have yet again stuck themselves in a royal rut. After another flamboyant start, they’ve fallen by the wayside and will be desperate to prevent a repeat of their 2014 fiasco. They’ve also had the worst of the rain, with two games washed out. With only game left and that too against a strong KKR, things look bleak. A win will get them to 16 points but that will not guarantee a playoff place as net run rates will definitely come into the equation. Currently, their net run rate (+0.02) is higher than their most likely competitors Hyderabad and Mumbai, but Rajasthan should aim to put in a comprehensive performance over Kolkata and take that net run rate up to unassailable territory.
The dark horses – Bangalore and Mumbai
Bangalore are tapping into a rich vein of form but will it be enough to carry them to the playoffs?
Looking at their most recent fixtures, it should. Bangalore are on 13 points with three games still to play. Two of those three games are against Delhi and Punjab, teams they’ll back themselves to defeat. They face Sunrisers away, which may be a much more difficult proposition. However, even if Bangalore loses that game but wins against Delhi and Punjab, they’ll find themselves at a comfortable 17 points, with qualifications for the playoffs guaranteed. The focus should be to not do anything silly right now.
Mumbai Indians found themselves in a similar situation a year ago and responded magnificently. Can they do it again this year?
It looks difficult. The maximum they can aspire to is 16 points, which means defeating both Kolkata and Hyderabad. If Rajasthan and Hyderabad lose all their remaining matches, Mumbai will qualify without a sweat, since they’ll be ahead of both the two teams. Even one win for any of those teams though will bring it down to net run rate, and Mumbai’s NRR at -0.3 is the weakest of the lot. The advantage though is they’ve done it earlier and might just pull it off again this time.
Predictions!
With things so topsy-turvy, any prediction made is likely to come back and bite in the future! But I’ll stick my neck out – these are my predictions for the final four this IPL:
Chennai Super Kings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Kolkata Knight Riders
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Qualifier 1: Chennai v Bangalore. Prediction: Chennai to win
It’s difficult to look beyond Chennai at crunch times and I’m predicting a Chennai win in the first Qualifier.
Eliminator: Kolkata v Hyderabad. Prediction: Kolkata to win
Hyderabad did defeat Kolkata in the league stage but that was a rain-shortened match. Warner has carried Hyderabad for too long and they don’t look like they have the required quality to challenge Kolkata and go beyond.
Qualifier 2 – Bangalore v Kolkata. Prediction: Bangalore to win.
Bangalore has had the better of Kolkata in the league and this is likely to continue. Kolkata have been topsy-turvy in the IPL and this lack of consistency is bound to come back and bite them some time.
Final – Chennai v Bangalore. Prediction: Bangalore to win.
Of course, the safe bet is to predict a Chennai victory but something tells me that RCB will find a way to get past Dhoni’s men if they reach the final. One good performance from someone in the RCB top order can decide the game for Bangalore. It would also be a sort of redemption for ABD to win an IPL title after being so narrowly knocked out of the World Cup!
It’s rush-hour traffic at the top. Other than Delhi and Punjab who find themselves languishing in the bottom two, every other team finds themselves with a chance. What do they each need to do?
Looking shaky at the top
The Chennai Super Kings sit pretty on top of the table but they won’t exactly be in the mood to celebrate. The loss against Delhi has made things a little worrisome for them.
Chennai are at 16 points with a game in hand against Punjab away. They will desperately want to win that game and get some breathing space from the tangle below. A loss to Punjab will not eliminate them from the tournament though – it will then come down to net run rate and Chennai, with a NRR of +0.6, has the best NRR among all the teams.
However, Chennai wouldn’t want to go down that route for a simple reason: a win in their last game will keep them in strong contention for finishing first or second in the league. Obviously, that will allow Chennai two shots at entering the final, something Dhoni will be very mindful of.
Congestion below
Below CSK, there’s a complete free-for-all.
First, a dampener for Kolkata Knight Riders fans. They still haven’t qualified for the playoffs. And if they conspire to lose their next two matches with other results not going their way, there is a chance they might not make it.
KKR’s next two matches are both away games, against Mumbai Indians and Rajasthan Royals. They’ve lost both their last two away games, one against Chennai and the other against Bangalore. If KKR lose both their matches and the other teams in the fray (Hyderabad, Bangalore, Rajasthan, Mumbai) maintain their winning ways, KKR will be stuck on 15. At that point, they will slip behind the other teams on 16 and will rue the washed-out game against Rajasthan which only got them a point.
Conversely, Sunrisers Hyderabad below them are a point less but play both their last two matches at home. Winning both their games will guarantee them a place in the playoffs, but even winning one out of two may just be enough. The advantage for Hyderabad is their last game against Mumbai is also the last game of the league phase. They can approach that game knowing exactly what they need to do to qualify.
Rajasthan Royals have yet again stuck themselves in a royal rut. After another flamboyant start, they’ve fallen by the wayside and will be desperate to prevent a repeat of their 2014 fiasco. They’ve also had the worst of the rain, with two games washed out. With only game left and that too against a strong KKR, things look bleak. A win will get them to 16 points but that will not guarantee a playoff place as net run rates will definitely come into the equation. Currently, their net run rate (+0.02) is higher than their most likely competitors Hyderabad and Mumbai, but Rajasthan should aim to put in a comprehensive performance over Kolkata and take that net run rate up to unassailable territory.
The dark horses – Bangalore and Mumbai
Bangalore are tapping into a rich vein of form but will it be enough to carry them to the playoffs?
Looking at their most recent fixtures, it should. Bangalore are on 13 points with three games still to play. Two of those three games are against Delhi and Punjab, teams they’ll back themselves to defeat. They face Sunrisers away, which may be a much more difficult proposition. However, even if Bangalore loses that game but wins against Delhi and Punjab, they’ll find themselves at a comfortable 17 points, with qualifications for the playoffs guaranteed. The focus should be to not do anything silly right now.
Mumbai Indians found themselves in a similar situation a year ago and responded magnificently. Can they do it again this year?
It looks difficult. The maximum they can aspire to is 16 points, which means defeating both Kolkata and Hyderabad. If Rajasthan and Hyderabad lose all their remaining matches, Mumbai will qualify without a sweat, since they’ll be ahead of both the two teams. Even one win for any of those teams though will bring it down to net run rate, and Mumbai’s NRR at -0.3 is the weakest of the lot. The advantage though is they’ve done it earlier and might just pull it off again this time.
Predictions!
With things so topsy-turvy, any prediction made is likely to come back and bite in the future! But I’ll stick my neck out – these are my predictions for the final four this IPL:
Chennai Super Kings
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Kolkata Knight Riders
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Qualifier 1: Chennai v Bangalore. Prediction: Chennai to win
It’s difficult to look beyond Chennai at crunch times and I’m predicting a Chennai win in the first Qualifier.
Eliminator: Kolkata v Hyderabad. Prediction: Kolkata to win
Hyderabad did defeat Kolkata in the league stage but that was a rain-shortened match. Warner has carried Hyderabad for too long and they don’t look like they have the required quality to challenge Kolkata and go beyond.
Qualifier 2 – Bangalore v Kolkata. Prediction: Bangalore to win.
Bangalore has had the better of Kolkata in the league and this is likely to continue. Kolkata have been topsy-turvy in the IPL and this lack of consistency is bound to come back and bite them some time.
Final – Chennai v Bangalore. Prediction: Bangalore to win.
Of course, the safe bet is to predict a Chennai victory but something tells me that RCB will find a way to get past Dhoni’s men if they reach the final. One good performance from someone in the RCB top order can decide the game for Bangalore. It would also be a sort of redemption for ABD to win an IPL title after being so narrowly knocked out of the World Cup!
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