T20 World Cup, Group 2 scenarios: Can Pakistan still reach semifinals? What are India’s chances?

Editor’s note: This article has been updated after Pakistan’s win against South Africa.

For a while there, it looked like Bangladesh were going to throw a massive twist in tale for deciding Group 2 semifinalists as they seemed set to finally end the jinx of close defeats against India at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup.

But it wasn’t meant to be for Shakib al Hasan and Co who missed a golden chance to make a genuine push for a semifinal spot in a group comprising of former champions.

The thrilling win for India in Adelaide makes the scenarios slightly more straightforward as we head to the finish line.

Here’s a look at the scenarios facing each of the team in Group 2:

(Note: For the purpose of this exercise, we shall assume none of the remaining matches are lost due to rain. More of that here.)

Remaining matches: 

Sunday 06 November, 05:30 IST, Adelaide, South Africa vs Netherlands

Sunday 06 November, 09:30 IST, Adelaide, Pakistan vs Bangladesh

Sunday 06 November, 13:30 IST, Melbourne, Zimbabwe vs India

India

With six points from four matches, India sit top of the table for now and will be guaranteed a spot in the semifinals if they defeat Zimbabwe in their final match on Sunday. (That it is the final match of the Super 12 phase would have helped them in case they lost against Bangladesh as they would have known Net Run Rate scenarios but now a win would do).

Given the propensity of close matches and surprise results this tournament, should Zimbabwe defeat India on Sunday, there is still a chance that India will miss out from semifinals. For that to happen, Pakistan must defeat Bangladesh first. Since Pakistan’s NRR is already better than India’s, Babar Azam & Co will pip India should these two results pan out.

NRR will also come into play if Bangladesh defeat Pakistan and India lose to Zimbabwe, but that should be a scenario that favours India as the Tigers’ margin of wins have not been big enough.

South Africa

After their defeat in Sydney, there are no teams in the Super 12 stage who are undefeated.

But they are still in a good position, with a solitary match left to go against Netherlands. A win is enough to reach semifinals.

Should they lose that match, weather will be their only hope as either Pakistan or Bangladesh will certainly reach six points after their match is complete.

Bangladesh

From a position of possibly controlling their semifinal fate, Bangladesh are left hoping for other results to go their way if they can beat Pakistan in their final Super 12 match on Sunday. Any NRR scenario is unlikely to go in favour of the Tigers so they have to beat Pakistan and hope South Africa remain on 5 points.

Pakistan vs Bangladesh will definitely end the tournament for the loser.

Pakistan

After their defeat against Zimbabwe, Pakistan were already on the brink of elimination and the results since have not exactly gone their way. They would have wanted India to defeat South Africa, that didn’t happen. They would have then wanted Bangladesh to defeat India, that didn’t happen.

For starters, they have come up with a super performance to defeat South Africa and stay alive. Their NRR is so good that they just have to defeat Bangladesh by any margin but then have to hope for a six-point tiebreak scenario on NRR. For that to happen, Zimbabwe must also defeat India.

Zimbabwe and Netherlands

Zimbabwe couldn’t capitalise on their win against Pakistan, and would rue their miss against Bangladesh. Their best case scenario is 5 points by beating India and then weather affecting all the other matches. Netherlands are out of semifinal contention but could still play a massive role in the tournament if they can trouble South Africa.

Top spot calculations

Given finishing first and second will determine who the teams face in the semifinals, it’s worth taking a look at the scenarios for finishing top of the group. (Even though at this stage, who will finish 1 and 2 in the other group is a whole different ball-game).

South Africa lose control of the top spot after defeat against Pakistan as a win against Netherlands will take them only to 7 points. India can pip them.

If India win against Zimbabwe, they will reach 8 points and finish top of group.

If South Africa get no points from their remaining matches and India lose against Zimbabwe, a tie on six points between India and Pakistan or Bangladesh will decide the top two.

Note: As pointed out by ESPNCricinfo, if there is a tie on points, the first breaker is the number of wins and only then NRR comes into play. This could be a factor if Bangladesh and South Africa get tied on six points with South Africa facing another washout. Then advantage Bangladesh on the number of wins.