“While the world continues to grapple with economic bloodbath with major economies projected to register negative growth in the aftermath of #COVID pandemic, India will be a shining spot with positive growth in 2020,” the Bharatiya Janta Party last Saturday claimed in a tweet, accompanied by an infographic listing the projected Gross Domestic Product growth percentages of nine countries.
The tweet, citing the International Monetary Fund as the source of its data, added that India “will also retain its status of the fastest growing economy”.
This was retweeted over 2,500 times.
This infographic was also shared by BJP Nagaland, BJP Delhi and BJP Odisha.
Several BJP MPs tweeted it as well. Among them were Manoj Rajoria, Subhash Bhamre, Rajesh Verma, Parshottam Sabariya, Nityanand Rai and Arjun Munda.
BJP’s tweet raises two questions that this article will answer.
- Did the International Monetary Fund predict positive growth for India in 2020?
- Does the International Monetary Fund data project India as the fastest growing economy?
The short answer to both the questions is “no”.
Most recent International Monetary Fund data estimates negative growth for India in 2020
The BJP had tweeted a similar infographic in April that compared the International Monetary Fund’s projection of GDP growth rates for 2020 and 2021. “Indian economy is strong enough to withstand the impact of #Corona pandemic,” it said. “While most of major economies are staring at economic mayhem and severe recession with projections of negative growth in 2020, IMF projects a positive growth for India in 2020 and 7.4% in 2021.”
The data for 2020 in both the April and August infographics is identical.
The International Monetary fund releases World Economic Outlook Reports twice a year – April and September/ October – followed by two updates. While the BJP’s April infographic was correctly based on the IMF data released in April, its August infographic was also based on the same data. World Economic Outlook: The Great Lockdown, published in April, had projected 1.9% growth for India in 2020 and 7.4% growth for 2021.
However, in June, the fund released an update on the report – World Economic Outlook Update. According to this report, “Economic data available at the time of the April 2020 WEO [World Economic Outlook] forecast indicated an unprecedented decline in global activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data releases [released] since then suggest even deeper downturns than previously projected for several economies.”
In its June report, the fund revised its April estimates and projected a contraction of -4.5% for India in 2020. “India’s economy is projected to contract by 4.5 percent following a longer period of lockdown and slower recovery than anticipated in April,” the report stated.
Therefore, the BJP’s tweet claiming that “India will be a shining spot with positive growth in 2020” is false. The ruling party used four-month-old data to reflect positive growth. According to the fund’s updated report released in June, India is projected to experience a negative growth rate by 4.5%.
The report does not reflect India as the fastest-growing economy
While the BJP attempted to portray that India is projected to “retain its spot as the fastest growing economy in the world”, the fund forecasts better growth rates for China and ASEAN-5. In fact, China’s estimated growth rate for 2020 is 1%. It is misleading to suggest that India will be at the top when the country is predicted to have negative growth while China is the only country predicted to experience positive growth.
It is to be noted that the fund’s projections may change in its next report as the pandemic continues to evolve. Nonetheless, the BJP’s claim that the international organisation predicted positive growth for India in 2020 and suggested that the country will “retain” its spot as the fastest-growing economy is false.
This is a lightly edited version of an article that first appeared on AltNews.
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