The Supreme Court’s judgement in December, dismissing several pleas that demanded an investigation into the government’s deal to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets should have put an end to the constant stream of allegations from the Congress about alleged crony capitalism. Or at least so the government may have been hoping. Instead, a major error in the judgement itself, as well as subsequent revelations, like a leaked audio tape and additional details about the decision-making process, have nullified any “clean chit” and kept the focus on the Rafale deal – as Wednesday’s heated debate in the Lok Sabha made clear.

“The Supreme Court verdict stated that probing Rafale scam does not come under the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court, but they never said that JPC shouldn’t be formed,” said Congress President Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha, referring to his party’s demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee. Gandhi’s speech, including making direct allegations against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, prompted Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to say, “there are some who have a natural dislike for truth.” The debate is expected to continue on Thursday.

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On December 14, 2018, the Supreme Court dismissed demands for an investigation into how the Rafale deal came about. The pleas focused on questions of whether India is overpaying for a jet that was seemingly available for cheaper and what role businessman Anil Ambani, whose company is partnering with Rafale’s French manufacturer, played in the controversial deal. In a much-criticised judgement, the Supreme Court said it would not look into questions of pricing or Ambani’s involvement, yet somehow also ruled out malafide intent and favouritism.

Soon after the judgement was passed, however, it emerged that there was an error. The order said that the Comptroller and Auditor General of India had examined details about Rafale’s price, and had shared its report with Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee. Except none of this had happened. The government later said that this may have been the result of a “misinterpretation”, though the Opposition said simply that the Centre had lied.

Questions about the error in the judgement, and the Centre’s admission of a “misinterpretation” already meant that the Supreme Court’s decision was hardly the final word as the government may have hoped. Instead, it gave the Congress more ammunition to continue attacking the government.

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In the first week of January a few more developments emerged in the same vein:

  • The Congress released an audio recording of a phone conversation in which a man believed to be a minister in the Goa government claimed that Manohar Parrikar, current Goa chief minister and former defence minister, had said in a Cabinet meeting that he had all the Rafale files in his bedroom. Congress President Rahul Gandhi even raised the matter in Parliament on Wednesday, earning angry responses from the government. The Congress has in the past also alleged that procedures were not followed with regards the Rafale deal and that Parrikar was in a position to “blackmail Narendra Modi” over it.
  • The Wire reported, based on “highly placed sources” that official file notings record the Prime Minister’s Office “interfering” with the negotiating process of the defence ministry team tasked with offering an objective assessment of the proposed purchase. The report says the defence ministry “officially noted that the PMO was compromising its negotiating position” in December 2015, according to one “highly placed source with knowledge of the matter.”
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an interview aired on January 1, had an unexpected response to a question about Rafale. Modi was asked why, despite the Congress repeatedly targeting him over the deal, he had left it to his party and ministers to reply rather than speaking himself. The prime minister began his answer by insisting that the allegations were not against him. “This is not an allegation against me personally, but an allegation against my government. If there is any allegation against me personally, let them dig who gave what, when and where and to whom.” Speaking in Parliament on Wednesday, Rahul Gandhi disagreed saying that the allegations were indeed directly aimed at Modi.
  • Former BJP ministers Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha, and lawyer Prashant Bhushan filed a review petition in the Supreme Court, listing out some of these questions as well as other points that they believe the judges need to consider in the matter.

None of these developments by themselves move the conversation forward much. The audio recording is hearsay and unlikely to lead to much more. Parrikar has already called it fabricated and denied the claim. The report about the file notings means little until they actually become public or are commented on by an authority like the CAG.

But the overall effect is to entirely nullify the impression that the Rafale matter has been buried after the Supreme Court dismissed its petitions. The Bharatiya Janata Party had initially planned to go across the country with the Supreme Court verdict, using it as proof to argue that Rahul Gandhi has been lying about the government. Indeed, that remains the party line, but the sum of all the developments following the judgement has meant that this narrative is not nearly as potent as the BJP would have liked it to be.

Wednesday’s protest-interrupted debate in Parliament didn’t do much to change this either, maintaining the impression that the Rafale question is alive and could still cause damage to the government, though it does not have much resonance with voters. The Defence Minister is expected to respond on Thursday, and the BJP is hoping that when the CAG report does come it will be another opportunity to put the matter behind it, but with reports suggesting the auditor will not look at pricing at all, it is likely that Rafale will remain a subject of controversy until general elections due by May.