In Mizoram, tensions between the majority and minority groups could shape the election verdict

Mizoram’s road to statehood in 1987 may have been turbulent, but elections to the state assembly ever since have usually been trouble free. This time, though, election season in the tiny hill state began on a contentious note, following a recommendation by the state’s chief electoral officer to transfer a Mizo bureaucrat out of Mizoram for alleged interference. At the heart of the dispute was the question of voting rights for several thousand Bru refugees who fled ethnic violence in Mizoram and settled in camps in neighbouring Tripura.

The development plunged the state into disarray: almost 50,000 people poured into the streets of Aizawl holding angry placards against the Election Commission. Government officials threatened non-cooperation in the electoral process and journalists refused to attend the commission’s press briefings.

The protests only died down after the Election Commission bowed to the demands of Mizo civil society groups leading the agitation and transferred the chief electoral officer out of Mizoram.

The (major) minority factor

Yet the agitation set the tone for the election, which has been headlined by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s attempts to get a foothold in Mizoram by courting the state’s minority (and largely non-Christian) communities: the Brus and the Chakmas, who have long alleged persecution by Mizo society.

Although Bru and Chakma votebanks could determine results in only four seats, political parties recognise their importance in a small assembly – the state elects only 40 legislators – in what is likely to be a closely-fought election. The two biggest parties, the ruling Congress and the main challenger, the homegrown Mizo National Front, have defied civil society diktats to field Chakma candidates. As a senior Mizo National Front leader explained: “We can’t be giving anyone a free pass in an election like this by not fielding minority candidate.”

Congress in the dock

Meanwhile, in Mizo-majority areas, the Congress is battling 10 years of anti-incumbency and several allegations of corruption and nepotism. Mizoram is currently the only Congress-ruled state in North East India, once a bastion of the party. But Chief Minsister Lal Thanhawla, perhaps the last of the Congress’s regional satraps in the North East, has stood defiant, insisting that his party would form government a record third time and comfortably so.

But it may be easier said than done. In an election fought amid heightened communal sentiments, the Mizo National Front has sought to leverage its identity as a Mizo party. At the centre of its campaign is the promise to ban alcohol in the state in keeping with Christian values, which form an integral part of Mizo identity. The fact that that the state’s powerful pressure groups and church bodies are also vehemently opposed to the sale of liquor in Mizoram would only help the party. The politics of prohibition has been a major talking point during the election campaign.

Also, there are reports of agrarian discontent in the state, with farmers complaining of not getting a fair price for their products because of the government’s restrictive policies. Add to that the burgeoning disappointment with the Congress government’s flagship New Land Use Policy, which was supposed to transform rural livelihoods in the state by weaning away farmers from jhum cultivation, but ended up being little more than a patronage scheme during the party’s last term. Introduced shortly after it came to power in 2008, the policy was instrumental to the Congress’s emphatic victory in the 2013 elections, where it improved its tally from 32 to 34 and vote share from 38.89 % to 44.63 %.

Moreover, the Congress is also having to contend with defections and internal squabbles over ticket distribution: five incumbent legislators, including the serving home minister and the Assembly speaker, have quit the party after allegedly being denied tickets.

The new party on the block

Apart from the BJP, this year’s election has seen the rise of another formidable entity: the Zoram People’s Movement, a collective of seven regional parties who have come together this election. The collective, under whose banner several independent candidates will contest the elections, is headed by a former senior police officer and Congress leader and has in its ranks several church leaders, making it a force to reckon with in the state where the church is held in high esteem.

Adding to its allure are populist agrarian policies which seem to have struck a chord with a section of rural voters. The collective has positioned itself as an “alternative” to both the Congress and the Mizo National Front, who, they claim, have failed to deliver. Political allies believe that it could hurt the Mizo National Front more by weaning away its anti-Congress votes.

The politics of alliance

But the permutation and combination of post-poll alliances remains hazy in Mizoram. While the Mizo National Front is part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre and the North East Democratic Alliance in the region, its president and chief ministerial candidate, Zoramthanga, has repeatedly denied the possibility of a post-poll alliance with the saffron party. However, its campaign chairperson, R Tlangmiangthanga, told Scroll.in it was a decision that would be taken only after the elections.

The Congress, for its part, has said it was open to allying with like-minded parties to keep the BJP at bay. The BJP, whose route to power in the North East of late has been through alliances with regional parties, is hopeful that it will get to play a role yet again. Said its leader BD Chakma: “We know we will not win a majority, but we are certain we will play a key part in any post-poll alliance.”