Appointment of new BJP chief in poll-bound Rajasthan seems to have calmed Shah-Raje tussle – for now

The appointment of 74-year-old Madan Lal Saini as the Bharatiya Janata Party president in Rajasthan on Saturday ended nearly three months of suspense about the vacancy. The delay in filling the crucial position in the poll-bound state was believed to be the result of a tussle between BJP national president Amit Shah and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje.

The position had been vacant since mid-April when the BJP leadership asked staunch Raje loyalist Ashok Parnami to resign as the state chief after the party was routed in three crucial bye-elections in February. The party lost the two Lok Sabha and one Assembly seats that went to the polls, lagging in all the 17 Assembly constituencies that comprised these seats. Parnami’s resignation was a clear setback to the Raje camp.

The BJP went without a state chief for 74 days because Shah and Raje failed to agree on a candidate.

For weeks after Parnami’s resignation, Jodhpur MP and Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat from the Rajput community was tipped as the front-runner for the post. Shekhawat was backed by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. By choosing Shekhawat, it was believed that Shah hoped to assuage the Rajput community, who have been angry with the Raje government’s handling of the Padmaavat film controversy earlier this year. They were also upset about police action against a local Rajput don, Anandpal Singh, who was killed last year in an alleged fake encounter. Sidelining Raje, never a Shah favourite, was seen as a bonus in promoting Shekhawat.

But despite the Shah-RSS backing for Shekhawat, party insiders say Raje strongly resisted his appointment. Besides being keen to have one of her own loyalists as state chief instead of a Shah protégé, Raje reportedly argued that giving the top post to a Rajput leader could alienate another politically influential community, the Jats. Rajputs and Jats have a history of rivalry. The Raje camp soon began lobbying hard that the state president should be neither a Rajput nor a Jat. This argument is believed to have eventually scuttled Shekhawat’s chances.

While the Shah-Raje tussle erupted at the end of April, the BJP leadership avoided a decision as it was then preoccupied with elections in Karnataka. Despite several meetings between state and central leaders, the BJP unit in Rajasthan remained without a chief for nearly three months.

This bitter, behind-the-scenes battle between Shah and Raje is crucial to understand the rationale behind the choice of Madan Lal Saini as the new state chief.

Who is Saini?

Known as an RSS supporter, Saini is part of the party’s Old Guard in Rajasthan. He hails from Sikar district in the Shekhawati region, has been the BJP general secretary in the state three times, and became a Rajya Sabha MP just a few months ago.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting state capital Jaipur on July 7, the BJP was keen to announce a party president so that Modi faces the public at his rally with a state party president beside him. This possibly accounts for the hurried announcement of Saini’s name as the new state chief.

Generally considered a political lightweight, Saini’s image as a low-profile party man seems to have gone in his favour in the faction-ridden unit of the Rajasthan BJP. Besides pleasing the RSS and Shah, who did not wish to see a Raje loyalist in this crucial post, Saini’s lack of stature enabled his acceptance by Raje, who obviously perceives no great threat to her chief ministerial future from a man who has never been even a state minister.

The BJP also hopes that by promoting a quiet, modest worker to the top, it will be able to fire up party cadres ahead of the elections due later this year in Rajasthan. Through Saini’s elevation, the BJP aims to send out a message to grassroots workers that every one has a chance of being promoted to key posts. “Saini is the right choice as he is a dedicated grassroots worker,” said Rajasthan’s Social Justice Minister Arun Chaturvedi on Saturday. “Our party will regain power in Rajasthan with his guidance.”

Caste calculations

But beyond generating goodwill within the party, there are some hard calculations behind Saini’s unexpected elevation. Most significantly, he is from the Other Backward Classes category that comprises over 42% of voters in Rajasthan. More specifically, Saini and former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot of the Congress belong to the same Mali community (of about 14% voters) – and the BJP hopes that their surprise choice will help counter Gehlot’s considerable popularity in the state.

But the crucial question is whether Saini can deliver on the BJP’s big hopes. His record in contesting elections is hardly inspiring. Though he was elected MLA in 1990, Saini lost three subsequent elections – the Lok Sabha elections in 1991 and 1998 and the state Assembly polls in 2008. Given his lack of connection with voters, BJP insiders say that Saini is unlikely to play a crucial role in allotting tickets or in creating the electoral campaign. They even claim that senior MLAs and powerful ministers are unlikely to pay much heed to him.

Draw for now

With Saini’s appointment, the tug-of-war between the two party heavyweights seems to have ended in a draw. Though Raje has not been able to get one of her loyalists the top job, she is possibly relieved that she did not have to accept a Shah-acolyte as state chief. Similarly, though Shah could not secure the post for his first-choice – Shekhawat – he too is possibly relieved that nobody from the Raje camp got the top job.

Besides strengthening the party’s caste calculus, the BJP’s big hope is that Madan Lal Saini will help the party build a broad consensus between Raje loyalists, the RSS camp and the party organisation. But that might be easier said than done. Political circles in Rajasthan believe that the Saini compromise formula has only postponed the climax to the Shah-Raje tangle – and that the clash between the warring sides may lead to problems with ticket distribution when the time comes.