The Big Story: Trouble on the horizon

Maybe the most surprising thing about Tamil Nadu politics is that All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader Edapadi Palaniswami remains chief minister. When he took over a year ago, Palaniswami was a surprise candidate to run the state following the resignation of O Paneerselvam, and many other potential claimants for the post were still waiting in the wings. Yet Palaniswami has somehow managed through it all, including attempts by the Sasikala family to split the party and bring down government, and he has even managed to bring Paneerselvam on board as deputy chief minister.

Over the weekend, it emerged that the two factions of the AIADMK came together on the advice of the prime minister. In a public statement, O Paneerselvam said that Narendra Modi had told him to merge the two factions to save the party. Indeed, the deputy chief minister added that Modi’s advice was even more specific. When Paneerselvam agreed to merge the party, he insisted that he did not want to be a minister – but Modi told him to continue, and so he became deputy chief minister.

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In some ways Paneerselvam has revealed the worst-kept secret of Tamil Nadu politics: Ever since J Jayalalithaa died in December 2016, the AIADMK government has only remained in power because of the influence of the Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre. Using both the carrot and the stick, and appearing to brush aside institutions – from the Central Bureau of Investigation to the Election Commission to the post of the Governor and more – the BJP has managed to ensure the government does not fall and, at the same time, is beholden to it. Leaders from both parties have denied this involvement all along, but Paneerselvam’s specific comments betray what was anyhow presumed by most who follow the state’s politics.

In fact, the timing of Paneerselvam’s decision to speak out might be more interesting than the content of his comments. A few days prior, Union Minister Pon Radhakrishnan of the BJP had described Tamil Nadu as a “training ground for terrorists” and criticised the working of the state government, provoking angry rebukes from Paneerselvam and later Palaniswami as well. Meanwhile, various other events are invariably forcing Tamil Nadu politics to lurch forward into the post-Amma phase, whether it is the newly launched parties of actors Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan, or the impending High Court judgment on the 18 AIADMK MLAs allied to breakaway leader TTV Dinakaran. If those 18 are disqualified, the government might end up in minority.

Palaniswami might be celebrating spending a year in office, but the throne could look shakier than ever over the next few months depending on how things turn out. There is already talk of a change in allegiances, with the anti-BJP camp expected to be filled by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Dinakaran and Kamal Haasan while Rajinikanth gets the BJP support. The AIADMK might yet again split, depending on how leaders expect the wind to blow.

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Even as Tamil Nadu braces itself for more political upheaval, it is important that its leaders remember that they are meant to be representatives of the people, not mindless drones thirsting after power. Paneerselvam’s belated revelation about Modi’s role comes after months in which the BJP was seen abusing institutions to ensure its desired outcome was achieved. If this clutch of politicians wants to be relevant to Tamil Nadu for the long run, it is imperative for them to be honest about their intentions while resisting, or better yet exposing, any underhand tactics aimed at controlling the state government.

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Punditry

  1. “The lean rainfall years will test the endurance of the decision and the scheme that will be put in place by the Centre. With doors open for appeals, the Supreme Court could have its hands full on river dispute matters,” writes Srinivas Chokkakula in the Indian Express.
  2. “The virtual collapse of a Pakistan policy seems to affect Pakistan less and India more. The latter is facing a daily haemorrhaging of human lives due to cross border firing and terrorist violence from Pakistan,” writes MK Narayanan in the Hindu.
  3. “The increasingly sophisticated middle class elites in these countries view China as a driver of growth for their tepid economies and a check on Indian hegemony. Yet, ironically, they are far from convinced that China is the metropolis. Therefore, the future of India’s standing in the region will significantly depend on the state’s ability to secure a civic identity to its citizen,” writes MK Bhadrakumar in the Tribune.

Giggle

Don’t miss

Nandini Purandare explains the ups and downs of being the editor of the Himalayan Journal, as the magazine turns 90.

The Himalayan Journal was started in 1928, when the Himalayan Club was established. The first ever volume was published in 1929. There were some years of upheaval – during World War II and the Indian independence struggle – when the journal could not be published but this annual publication, which is now on its 73rd volume, is the most respected and authoritative source on the Himalayas.

In the early days, one of the challenges was language. I was doing the noble job of correcting documented explorations for this English-speaking world of ours – being politically correct does not take away from the amazement (read amusement) of passages such as – “We had overjoyed for end of such thrilling trail. We were ecstasied as the first party able to recognize such virgin route after some terrible experimental effort. The Myth in Vogue in Badri is thal the same Prist offered Puja in both the Temples of Badri & Kedar. His time passed on the way and his domestic works were knocked out. Helpless wife remembered the Lord of Lords. Realizing the crisis of this devotee Lord Siva (Asutosh) himself stood erect as the Mountin Nilkanth in between the Temples. It is really difficult to justify the truth of the Myth.”

Even today I wonder what is lost in translation from English to English.