IPL 2018: Predicting the player retention and pre-auction strategy of franchises

The eight franchises of the Indian Premier League are on Thursday set to announce the list of players they have retained for the upcoming season starting April 4.

Six of the eight franchises can keep up to five players who played for them last season, via a combination of pre-auction retention and using a Right to Match card.

The Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals, who are returning to the fold after serving a two-year suspension for their involvement in the 2013 spot-fixing and betting scandal, can keep up to five players who played for them in 2015, as long as they were picked by either Rising Pune Supergiants or Gujarat Lions in 2017.

Franchises are allowed to retain a maximum of three capped Indian players, two capped foreigners and two uncapped Indians.

The salary cap for the 11th season is Rs 80 crore and each franchise will have to spend a minimum of 75% of this amount, which is Rs 60 crore. Each franchise can have a maximum of 25 players, including up to eight foreigners, a minimum of 18.

Considering these rules, The Field tried to predict the pre-auction strategy of all eight franchises.

Mumbai Indians

Let’s start with the defending champions. The Mumbai Indians management has quite a headache on its hands, given the plethora of talent it possesses. Captain Rohit Sharma is a no-brainer in terms of retention and Mumbai would also want to keep Indian cricket’s new superstar Hardik Pandya. Jasprit Bumrah is another player Mumbai would regret losing, as is Krunal Pandya who has consistently performed over the last two seasons.

We haven’t even spoken about players such as Lasith Malinga, Kieron Pollard and Harbhajan Singh, who bleed Mumbai Indians blue and have been associated with the franchise for a long time.

If Mumbai decide to retain three, the picks will most likely be Rohit Sharma, Hardik Pandya and Jasprit Bumrah. But this would mean their auction purse would reduce by Rs 33 crore and come down to Rs 47 crore to buy the rest of the squad.

They may then not be left with enough money to use their two remaining Right To Match cards for players such as Pollard, Malinga and even Jos Buttler, who are likely to ignite a bidding war at the auction.

If Mumbai retain just two – most likely Rohit and Hardik – that would leave them with a bit more money (Rs 59 crore) to use the maximum of three RTM cards and purchase other cricketers. This would seem like a wise option but then Mumbai have always thrived on its core. Would they be willing to risk losing players such as Bumrah, Krunal, Harbhajan, Malinga and Pollard?

Likely retentions: Rohit Sharma (Indian capped), Hardik Pandya (Indian capped).
Right To Match: Jasprit Bumrah (Indian capped), Kieron Pollard (foreign), Krunal Pandya (Indian uncapped).

Sunrisers Hyderabad

Like Mumbai, the Sunrisers also have the problem of plenty to ponder over, with players such as David Warner, Shikhar Dhawan, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Kane Williamson, Rashid Khan and Mohammad Siraj to choose from.

Captain Warner, like Rohit Sharma, is a no-brainer and as is his opening partner Shikhar Dhawan and fast bowler Bhuvneshwar Kumar, who won the Purple Cap for the most number of wickets in a season for the last two years.

Retaining three would, again, bring down their purse to Rs 47 crore for the rest of the players, although the Sunrisers are unlikely to make Yuvraj Singh the most expensive player of the auction again.

Likely retentions: David Warner (foreign), Shikhar Dhawan (Indian capped), Bhuvneshwar Kumar (Indian capped).
Right To Match: Rashid Khan (foreign)

Kolkata Knight Riders

Two-time champions KKR would not want to lose skipper Gautam Gambhir, who led them to both those titles in 2012 and 2014, and who was also the second-highest scorer in the league last season. Gambhir may be 36 years old but he is still batting well – he scored 683 runs in 12 innings for Delhi in the Ranji Trophy, playing a major part in his team’s route to the final.

KKR would also want to retain Manish Pandey, their second-highest scorer last season, and off-spinner Sunil Narine, who has become synonymous with the franchise. However, that would leave out players such as spinner Kuldeep Yadav, pacer Umesh Yadav and wicketkeeper-batsman Robin Uthappa, who other franchises would gladly lap up.

Likely retentions: Gautam Gambhir (Indian capped), Manish Pandey (Indian capped).
Right To Match: Kuldeep Yadav (Indian capped), Sunil Narine (foreign)

Royal Challengers Bangalore

It would be absurd if RCB decide not to retain captain Virat Kohli and South African talisman AB de Villiers. However, Chris Gayle, another player who has become synonymous with the franchise, may find himself in the auction this time after a poor run of form last year (200 runs in nine matches at 22.22). RCB may reserve a Right To Match card for the West Indian smasher, although he is still likely to attract a big amount if he reaches the auction.

RCB will also be pondering over the likes of Yuzvendra Chahal, who is a favourite of Kohli, and India batsman Kedar Jadhav. Samuel Badree and Shane Watson are likely to be tossed into the auction, along with India’s KL Rahul. RCB will want to rebuild their squad after a last-place finish in 2017.

Likely retentions: Virat Kohli (Indian capped), AB de Villiers (foreign).
Right To Match: Yuzvendra Chahal (Indian capped), Kedar Jadhav (Indian capped)

Kings XI Punjab

If there is anyone in last season’s Kings XI Punjab squad that deserves to be retained, it is South African batsman Hashim Amla. The right-handed batsman’s two hundreds and as many fifties in 10 matches last season was the only reason the Kings were in the fight for the playoffs before just missing the cut. Fast bowler Sandeep Sharma also had a good season but Punjab would know there would be better options available in the auction.

Does this mean the Kings will let go of the likes of Glenn Maxwell and David Miller? They could, maybe, risk keeping them for a Right To Match but otherwise would want to start fresh. If they retain just one player, it would leave them with Rs 67.5 crore to splurge in the auction.

Likely retentions: Hashim Amla (foreign).
Right To Match: Glenn Maxwell (foreign).

Delhi Daredevils

Delhi Daredevils are the only franchise that ideally should not retain even a single player. After topping the table in 2012, Delhi finished bottom of the pile in 2013 and 2014, second-to-last in 2015, and third-to-last in 2016 and 2017. It’s time to clear out the entire wardrobe.

Likely retentions: None.
Right To Match: None.

Chennai Super Kings

Now, let’s come to the first of the two returning franchises, who have a separate player pool to pick from. Chennai is more likely to get snowfall than CSK losing out on MS Dhoni. Chennai’s adopted son hasn’t been in the best of form in this format, internationally or domestically, but that will hardly matter to the owners of CSK.

The franchise will also want to get most of their core players back, such as Ravindra Jadeja, Suresh Raina, R Ashwin, Dwayne Bravo, Brendon McCullum and Faf du Plessis. It’s unlikely they will manage to get all of them but CSK would be wise to retain Bravo along with Dhoni and then save the rest of their purse for Right To Match cards.

The limit of retaining three capped Indian players means that CSK would have to pick two out of Jadeja, Ashwin and Raina to add to Dhoni.

Likely retentions: MS Dhoni (Indian capped), Suresh Raina (Indian capped), Dwayne Bravo (foreign).
Right To Match: R Ashwin (Indian capped), Brendon McCullum (foreign).

Rajasthan Royals

Rajasthan Royals are unlikely to retain more than a couple of players from their 2015 squad and the picks appear obvious.

Likely retentions: Steve Smith (foreign), Ajinkya Rahane (Indian capped).
Right To Match: None.