The new year has not begun on a good note for Pakistan, thanks to United States President Donald Trump’s very first tweet of 2018. Trump claimed the United States has “foolishly” given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years and received “nothing but lies & deceit”. Trump concluded his post with “no more”. The tweet set off a number of reactions, including gloating in India and Afghanistan, the summoning of the American ambassador in Islamabad, and also prompted Pakistan Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to call a National Security Council meeting to review ties with the United States. This would not be the first time American presidents, and even Trump himself, has been harsh on Pakistan only to later relent, yet there are indications that stances are now actually hardening.
Pakistan’s initial reaction has been denial and rebuttal, falling back on its old line of being one of the biggest victims of terror and insisting that it is actually the one getting the raw deal by cooperating with the United States in the Afghanistan war.
But it seems likely, especially with the National Security Council meeting on Wednesday, that Pakistan will look beyond just a rhetorical and diplomatic response. This is because Trump’s tweet is tied to a tranche of $255 million in aid that his administration is strongly considering withholding as a signal of unhappiness over Pakistan’s refusal to confront terror networks. The New York Times reported that United States officials were actively considering withholding the aid, with Vice-President Mike Pence telling American troops in Afghanistan during a visit just before Christmas that Trump had “put Pakistan on notice”.
Policy shift
This came after two other indications that Trump is willing to follow through on his harsh rhetoric about Pakistan during his campaign. First, in August, Trump unveiled his Afghanistan and South Asia policy in a televised address that used harsh language, calling Pakistan out for playing host to terror networks. Then, in his National Security Strategy paper issued in December, Trump said that if Pakistan wants the partnership to continue, the United States will first have to see decisive action against terrorist groups operating in their territory. “We make massive payments every year to Pakistan,” Trump said at the time. “They have to help.”
Two more developments signal the widening gulf between the two countries, which have worked together for decades now, even though those ties have always come with an atmosphere of mistrust. In December, Pakistan voted at the United Nations to condemn Trump’s move declaring Jerusalem the capital of Israel. This may not have been surprising, considering Pakistan’s status as a major Islamic nation, but Trump had explicitly threatened to withdraw foreign aid from those countries that voted against the United States.
“They take hundreds of millions of dollars and even billions of dollars and then they vote against us,” Trump had said.“Well, we’re watching those votes. Let them vote against us. We’ll save a lot. We don’t care.”
Also in December, the Pakistan Senate adopted a resolution recommending that the government seek compensation from the United States government to account for the lives lost and property damaged by American drone attacks on Pakistani territory. The drone attacks are held responsible for hundreds of civilian deaths in Pakistani territory, but Washington insists it has to use this approach because of Islamabad’s refusal to crack down on terror on its soil.
Rescue effort
The final twist in the tale is the rescue of a Canadian-American family that had been held captive by militants earlier this year. The rescue, carried out by Pakistani forces, prompted Trump to put out a softer line at the time, thanking Islamabad and saying, “I believe they are starting to respect the United States again.” But the details are curious because, according to CNN, when the United States passed on some intelligence regarding the family’s whereabouts to Pakistan, they had expected to work together or even unilaterally on a rescue attempt.
Instead, the Pakistani authorities replied a little while later saying they had taken custody of all five family members. While doing so, the Pakistani forces reportedly also captured one of the militant abductors from the Taliban-linked Haqqani network, which the United States considers one of the biggest threats in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Washington demanded access to this man, but Islamabad refused all requests, bringing up questions of how the family was freed and what the United States-Pakistan intelligence cooperation actually means.
That question might be answered over the next few days, with Pakistan’s National Security Council drawing up plans to move even closer to Russia and China to make up for any shortfall from the American side. But, as Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani has argued, Islamabad can tide over a temporary halt in American aid. A real shift in stance would come if Trump no longer recognises Pakistan as a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ally, endangering Islamabad’s access to technology and weapons. Despite his harsh language, Trump has not gone that far in his comments about Pakistan yet. But if Islamabad decides to go on the offensive over the next few days as a response, Trump may want to put even more options on the table.
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