The government has not had a successful 10 days. Last week, its legal strategy to deny fundamental rights to Indian citizens fell apart after a nine-judge Supreme Court Constitution bench unanimously upheld a right to privacy. The next day a Bharatiya Janata Party government in Haryana was unable to maintain law and order after the conviction of a religious leader for rape, leading to widespread violence despite knowing it was likely in advance. On Wednesday, a report from the Reserve Bank of India confirmed what had long been suspected: That demonetisation has been an economic failure, with very few benefits at a steep cost. And on Thursday, it emerged that the economy is also on shaky territory, with Gross Domestic Product growth down to 5.7% in the first quarter of 2017.
The last two stories were hogging the headlines until Thursday evening, when the news spread that several ministers had resigned from the Union Council of Ministers after meeting BJP President Amit Shah, ahead of a likely reshuffle. With speculation suggesting the changes to the council could happen before Prime Minister Narendra Modi leaves for the BRICS summit in China on Sunday, talk in Delhi has turned to who will be moved out and what portfolios are likely to be reassigned.
Reshuffle speculation
The names doing the rounds are Union Skill Development Minister Rajiv Pratap Rudy, who has resigned ostensibly to return to party work. Other names include Union Water Resources Minister Uma Bharti, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh, Minister of State for Water Resources Sanjeev Balyan and Minister of State for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Giriraj Singh as those likely to be left out.
Union Minister of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Kalraj Mishra is likely to step down, having crossed the informal age limit of 75, and is expected to be made governor, possibly of Bihar. Minister of State for Human Resource Development Keshav Nath Pandey will also be expected to resign, after having been appointed head of the BJP’s Uttar Pradesh unit.
Besides those exiting the Cabinet, the government is likely to give new alliance partner Janata Dal (United) a berth. It was expected to also provide roles to the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, but internal wrangles inside that party are yet to be resolved, and it has not yet joined the National Democratic Alliance.
The speculation also suggests some portfolios might be moved around. Union Minister Arun Jaitley, who holds both the finance and defence portfolios is expected to be taken off the latter, so he can focus on the economy.
Why reshuffle?
Reshuffles are sometimes simply readjustments as a result of various changes, like new alliance partners or the need to include ministers from states that are going to elections. But they are also opportunities to hold leaders accountable for the work they have been doing in their respective ministries. Narendra Modi was initially sold as someone who would approach governance like a Chief Executive Officer, ensuring the right people would be put in charge of important portfolios, and routinely evaluated to see if they have been successful.
A relative dearth of talent, especially at the top, has made this difficult to do with few options for Modi beyond the current three Raisina Hill Ministers: Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj. The experiment of bringing Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar to run the defence ministry is generally considered a failure, prompting him to return to the chief ministership in Goa after elections earlier this year. Jaitley hinted earlier in the week that he will soon be giving up the defence ministership, which he has held since Parrikar left, and can focus yet again on finance.
If this process was to really be about accountability, however, Jaitley would hardly be kept in the finance ministry role. Economic numbers have consistently confounded economists, either because of their incomprehensibility or, as Thursday’s figures showed, because growth is sputtering despite low oil prices, good monsoons and a lack of external shocks. Jaitley no doubt has a major win under his belt in the form of cajoling states and parties to pass the Goods and Services Tax Bills, but that need not be the finance minister’s task. His track record at the helm of the economy has been much spottier, and the fact that reputed economists are choosing to leave the government rather than work alongside him should send a clear signal.
Ministerial failures
Other leaders that ought to be held accountable include Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu, who actually offered his resignation last week after a year of train accidents, some of which were fatal. Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad’s approach in the Right to Privacy case, where the government’s stand was unanimously eviscerated by the Supreme Court, should have been reason enough to look at his tenure. But he compounded it by insisting publicly that he, and the government, had actually believed in the opposite approach all along. Prasad’s revisionism, insisting the government had supported a fundamental right to privacy, did not just demonstrate he was unable to swallow a loss, it revealed a refusal to even acknowledge any error in the first place.
But if that were one of the criteria to be taken off the job, the buck would stop at Modi himself. The RBI’s report, a much delayed, mandated burst of transparency after months of refusing to reveal data, is quite damning of the prime minister’s pet demonetisation project. “If I commit any mistake, I am ready to face any punishment the country will give me,” Modi said soon after announcing the currency withdrawal, which squeezed the economy, caused massive distress and has shown very little in the way of gains.
It is clear that Modi has committed a mistake, endangering an already shaky economy just to burnish his anti-corruption reputation and make up for election-time promises of providing Rs 15 lakh to each citizen. Yet, as with Prasad about-face after the right to privacy loss, the government has been unwilling to acknowledge any downside to demonetisation, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. On Friday, it put ministers and, presumably a PR firm, on the job of ensuring #DemonetisationSuccess trended.
Accountability flows from the top. If Modi cannot even admit that his flagship effort has been a major failure, how can citizens expect other ministers to be held accountable?
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