The political drama in the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu looked set to be heading towards its climax with TTV Dinakaran, the nephew of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s aide VK Sasikala, gaining more support among party legislators on Sunday.
With a total of 23 MLAs in his camp, Dinakaran looked supremely confident as he removed Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami from his party post of Salem suburban district secretary on Sunday. Over the last few days, Dinakaran has been stripping several senior leaders of the Palaniswami camp of their party positions. Though the chief minister’s side stated that Dinakaran had no authority to effect such changes as he had already been removed by a high-level committee from the post of deputy general secretary, the rebel leader maintained that he was acting under the instructions of his aunt Sasikala, currently lodged in a Bengaluru jail.
In the meantime, the chorus for a floor test in the Assembly grew louder on Sunday, with leaders of the Opposition, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Congress, meeting Governor C Vidyasagar Rao and demanding a confidence vote. This prompted senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader Subramanian Swamy to allege a collusion between Dinakaran and the DMK to bring the AIADMK government down. He also said that the current danger for the AIADMK regime was primarily due to a flawed merger forced on Palaniswami by “retarded sakunis” in Chennai and New Delhi.
The Congress, an alliance partner of the DMK in Tamil Nadu, upped the ante with former Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram questioning the silence of the governor. He said Rao should not, through the delay in calling for a floor test, allow the alteration of the effective strength of the Assembly, which currently consists of 233 members.
His comments were prompted by a meeting of the Tamil Nadu Assembly’s privileges committee scheduled for Monday. With DMK working president MK Stalin alleging that he, as the leader of the Opposition, has not been informed about the committee meeting, speculation was rife that a number of DMK MLAs might be suspended citing the ruckus that prevailed in the Assembly in July over a corruption scandal involving Health Minister C Vijayabhaskar and top police officers. Stalin hit out at the AIADMK, claiming that this was a ploy to win the impending floor test by all means.
Danger to the government
All factions put together, the AIADMK currently has 134 MLAs in the 233-member house. By Sunday, Dinakaran had the support of 23 legislators, which brings the strength of the Palaniswami team to 111, which is six short of a majority. This apart, three MLAs belonging to the AIADMK’s alliance parties have also expressed their moral support to Dinakaran.
After moving his MLAs to a resort in neighbouring Puducherry last week, Dinakaran said the battle in the AIADMK was a fight between “sacrifice and betrayal” and added that he did not consider power important. “I could have become chief minister in February had I wanted to,” he said on Saturday. “It is time to teach betrayers a lesson.”
A senior leader close to Dinakaran told Scroll.in that they were anticipating action from the Speaker when the floor test happens. “We are looking at a scenario where the 23 of us might be disqualified before voting for trying to violate the whip,” the leader said.
Legally, this move is not tenable as the anti-defection law will kick in only after the violation of the whip, which means the disqualification provisions can only be used after the rebel MLAs vote against the government in the Assembly, and bring it down.
But a second scenario is also possible. The Palaniswami faction could let the violation happen, allow the government to fall and get the legislators disqualified. Since the Assembly will be in suspended animation for six months owing to Supreme Court directions in past cases, Palaniswami could stake a claim to form the government again citing the reduced numbers in the Assembly after the ouster of Dinakaran loyalists.
When this was pointed out, an MLA from the Dinakaran faction said at least 10 more MLAs are likely to support them in the next few days. “Wait and watch. We will ensure that Palaniswami will have only as many MLAs as the DMK does,” the leader claimed. The DMK, along with its alliance partners, has 98 MLAs.
This is why the privilege committee meeting on Monday becomes crucial. However, officials in the DMK said that they were not too worried about it as a resolution in the privilege committee will have to be adopted in the Assembly. This would take time. Even in the case of a suspension of MLAs, a senior DMK legislator added that the MLAs would have to be allowed to vote on the confidence vote. “If we are denied our vote, we will move the High Court,” the leader, a three-time MLA, stressed. “We are pretty sure about the rules.”
On Sunday, Tamil Nadu BJP president Tamilisai Soundararajan said that the state was not prepared for an election at the moment.
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