Diego Costa’s impending exit, lack of squad depth will dent Chelsea’s title defence

Antionio Conte had enough reason to be skeptical of Chelsea repeating their facile title win in his first season in the English shores. He said he wanted to avoid a “Mourinho season”. Clearly, the Italian has noticed the rapid turn of fate for Premier League winning managers in recent years.

In the post Sir Alex Ferguson era, the three other managers who managed to get their hands on the Premier League trophy – Manuel Pellegrini, Jose Mourinho and Claudio Ranieri – are no longer a part of the teams they won the title with.

From what was a top-two in the early part of the century (Arsenal and Manchester United) and a top-four in the mid-2000s, the last two seasons has sent out enough indications to deduce that one could see the emergence of a top-six. What should worry Conte, heading into the news season, is that no team in this decade has successfully defended the league title. Not too dissimilar to pre-season prediction from last year, pundits and punters alike are expecting one of the Manchester clubs to reclaim the league title.

Champions League is back at Stamford Bridge

After being outclassed by Liverpool and Arsenal in back-to-back games, a minor shake-up in formation (3-4-3) combined with some outstanding individual performances (N’Golo Kante, Eden Hazard and Diego Costa) saw the London giants amass an extraordinary sequence of wins (13), which more or less shut out any hopes of Tottenham Hotspur snatching away the title.

What has underpinned most title winning sides through the years is having a reliable core of players to see them through a better part of the season. Chelsea’s previous title wins have also been built on their first-choice XI steering clear of injuries. Without the midweek worries of facing a Real Madrid or Barcelona in the Champions League or travelling to a remote corner of eastern Europe in the Europa League, seven of Chelsea’s first choice players crossed the 30-game mark at the league stage.

Conte has everything to prove in cup competitions in his career. For all his jaw-dropping displays in the league – four consecutive titles which includes three Serie A titles from 2011-’14, the former Juventus and Italy manager’s record in cup competitions is far from impressive. Conte is yet to win a knock-out competition.

Squad depth

While United and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have stolen the headlines with high profile signings, Chelsea too have had a notable transfer window. Roman Abramovich sanctioned the signings of four players in crucial positions, which has cost them in excess of £100 million. There are talks of the them trying to recruit more players and there is a good reason why.

City, United and Arsenal, as things currently stand, look better equipped to handle close to 60 games over the course of the season. Moving away from the pattern of lavish spending during the initial years of the Abramovich era, Chelsea’s transfer policy, in recent times, has seen them unflinchingly let players go to balance their books.

In January, the club let go of seasoned campaigners Branislav Ivanovic and John Obi Mikel along with midfielder Oscar. While club legend and former captain John Terry bid his farewell after being the first captain in the EPL to lift five titles, the club also sold youngsters Nathan Ake and Nathaniel Chalobah.

Kurt Zouma and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, both having shown promise with the first team, have been sent on loan. The inexplicable move to sell Nemanja Matic, a pivotal member for the last three years, to their title rivals may come back to haunt Chelsea.

However, it is the exit of Diego Costa that is will have a telling impact on Chelsea’s title chances. The Spanish striker’s drive (which comes with a dark side), all-action style at the goalmouth combined with his clincal finishing landed the Blues two titles in the last three seasons. Costa’s replacement, Alvaro Morata has big boots to fill, and going by the initial impressions, the former Juventus and Real Madrid striker may take his time to hit the ground running.

Midfielder Tiemoue Bakayoko, £39.5 million, is still recovering from injury and will pair up with compatriot Kante in the middle of the park. Chelsea do have cover at the back through another summer purchase, Antonio Rudiger, and Andreas Christiansen, who has impressed during his loan spell at German side Borussia Monchengladbach.

A big challenge for Morata

The gangly 24-year-old striker knows a big club environment, which is one of the key boxes he ticks. However, his task here is far from punishing tired defenders late in the game, as it was during much of his tenure at Real Madrid. Chelsea reportedly looked to sign Belgian Romelu Lukaku, before being prized out by Manchester United for £75 million.

There have been many comparisons to Lukaku and Morata, who could have just as easily ended up at United during the summer and the former, back at Chelsea. The Spaniard is armed with more elite continental experience, having played three out of the last four Champions League finals. It is the former Chelsea man, however, who is the better bet on paper to fly off the blocks, having scored more than 20 goals in each of his last three campaigns.

Chelsea failed to impress pre-season and in their penalty shootout loss in the Community Shield to rivals Arsenal. It was also clear that in attack, much of their potency revolves around Eden Hazard flummoxing defenders in the final third.

Conte preferred the steel of Matic over Cesc Fabregas’s creativity at the base of the midfield last year. When the front three of Hazard, Costa, and Pedro had an off day, Cesc Fabregas was called on from the bench to infuse creativity from the deep. It is still not clear how prominent a role Fabregas would play when the season gets underway. Will Conte experiment with a 4-3-3 formation with Kante, Fabregas and Bakayoko in midfield? Again, that may throw a spanner in the works of a well drilled defence, and the manager may have to sacrifice one of his wing backs, who were unsung heroes last year. In this system, Fabregas’s exquisite passing abilities have been undone by his tactical indiscipline.

A large part of how Conte can keep Chelsea in the title race depends on how deep Chelsea can go in the Champions League, and perhaps, on how he can keep players in the change room happy – a recurring theme that has coincided during the aftermath of a successful season, and has led to many a manager exiting the Stamford Bridge door.

Prediction:

3rd: The aforementioned lack of numbers on the bench may come back to haunt them during the second half of the season.