The Big Story: Calming effect

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on Thursday made a forceful argument against those calling for a more bellicose stance against China, as a standoff between the two countries’ armies in the Doklam plateau stretches into its second month. “Even wars are concluded with talking,” Swaraj said in the Rajya Sabha. “Even at the end of a war, you have to sit at the table and talk. So why not dispense with the war and just talk?”

This is hardly a tactical framework, and Swaraj acknowledged as much saying as far as war is concerned, India has an Army and it is fully prepared. But the minister’s pushback against the drumbeats of war is useful at a time when many in the country are unsure exactly how to respond to the unusual Doklam standoff. This conflict is not like previous ones.

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When it is a simple case of the Chinese encroaching Indian territory, it is easy to whip up sentiments within India and assert India’s right over land it claims. But here Indian soldiers are currently on land that is claimed by Bhutan and China, putting them in a much more precarious position. India insisted it crossed over with the aim of ensuring China, which has been constructing roads on disputed land, was not changing the status quo. India sees its actions as living up to the promises it has made with regards preserving the security of Bhutan, but Thimpu has so far remained publicly quiet on India’s role in the standoff.

On Thursday, China released a 15-page document that once again called on India to unilaterally withdraw its troops before any further talks could happen. India’s stance has been that both sides need to withdraw to proceed with discussions. But the document also offered some new suggestions, bringing up the idea that India and China could sign a new boundary convention for the Sikkim region that would replace the 1890 one negotiated between the British Empire and the Chinese empire.

It also spoke of the warm relations between the two countries depiste this current standoff. Swaraj made mention of these as well in Parliament, reminding the others that China “has contributed to our growing economic strength. For them, there’s a lot at stake, risk here. They have been awarded many contracts.”

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Brodaly speaking, India has made its move. New Delhi now seems unlikely to blink first. Domestic calls for further bellicose action will not help the situation, especially when a standoff actually counts as something of a success for India – with the caveat that it leaves open the danger of something more serious being sparked.

The Chinese leadership will want to settle the issue before the BRICS summit in September, especially with the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China also coming up in November. India has asserted its right to prevent a change to the status quo at the tri-junction area between India, Bhutan and China – an assertion backed by India’s only previous official statement on the issue. Now it simply has to wait for the talks to happen. While waiting, though, it is useful for the government to remind Indians we are not at war with China, and do not want one either. Not just because it makes no sense to poke the bear (or the dragon, as it were), but also because it might not play very well next door, in Bhutan.

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Punditry

  1. “The debate around monetary policy cannot stop with the repo rate, and rate transmission issues,” writes Indira Rajaraman in Mint. “It has to go beyond into whether credit is reaching the last mile.”
  2. “We need to reframe our terms of relationship with China; rethink our own posture; rescue ourselves from experiencing a delusion of grandeur and instead persevere to emerge as a confident and aspiring regional power,” writes Phunchok Stobdan in the Hindu.
  3. Sushant Singh in the Indian Express says usually a stand-off between two powers counts as a loss for the bigger one, in this case China, but the danger in Doklam is that it might affect India’s standing in Bhutan.
  4. “Any attempt to tamper with [Jammu & Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status] is bound to result in a massive backlash,” writes Srinath Raghavan in the Hindustan Times. “At a time when J&K stands close to the boil, New Delhi can ill-afford to ignore this situation.”
  5. Christophe Jaffrelot in the Indian Express recounts the old history of organicist thinking, from the early proponents of Hindutva all the way of Yogi Adityanath, who have valorised the institution of caste.
  6. “Providing women with access to secure land is key to incentivising the majority of India’s women farmers,” writes Tarini Mohan in the Indian Express. “This, coupled with the need to make investments to improve harvests, will result in increased productivity and improve household food security and nutrition.”

Giggle

Don’t miss

Jaspreet Sahni introduces us to Bhavani Devi, a priest’s daughter supported by Jayalalithaa who is putting India on the world fencing map.

It was the end of 2003. In the 6th standard classroom of a school in north Chennai, examination scores were being declared. Among the nervous students was a 10-year-old girl called CA Bhavani Devi. Not very good at academics, she knew her fate. So she framed an excuse to exit the classroom. Outside, some seniors were jotting down names on a piece of paper. The school had introduced gymnastics, squash, and fencing as new sports, and asked interested students to enroll. Bhavani saw in it a route to escape studies. But all slots for gymnastics and squash were filled. To Bhavani, the sport didn’t matter. “I will do fencing,” she said on that day 14 years ago. Today, she is the first Indian to win a fencing gold medal at a world event.