India’s spinners vs England’s middle order: The battles within the battle in the World Cup final

India are in a World Cup final at Lord’s. The last time that happened, in 1983 with Kapil Dev’s men, the game was revolutionised in the country. Now, Mithali Raj’s women are on the verge of a similar revolution.

Standing in the way of their first ever title are hosts England – the team that India beat in their first match of the World Cup, but who have been unbeaten since. Their head-to-head in a World Cup is almost neatly balanced at 6-4.

But as we have seen in the last few matches, records and reputations means nothing in a knockout match. The title clash will be decided by which side balances the individual brilliance with team effort on the day. It will be decided by which players win the smaller battles within the bigger ones.

With stars and standout performers in both teams, it’s hard to pick or predict who will come out on top in these contests. Here’s a look at the players and match-ups to watch out for.

Shikha Pandey vs Tammy Beaumont

This is one contest that can potentially define the tone of the innings at the outset. Shikha Pandey is India’s strike bowler, getting a big wicket in her very first over in three matches – Laura Wolvaardt against South Africa, Suzie Bates against New Zealand and Berth Mooney against Australia. Opener Tammy Beaumont is England’s highest run-scorer with 387 runs, including a blistering 148 against South Africa, who can single-handedly give England a launchpad for big scores.

In the final, only one of these trends will stand. The Indian pacer’s ever-improving swing bowling and accuracy, while her new ball partner Jhulan Goswami is not at her best, means that the bulk of the reasonability will be on her to stifle the opening partnership. Pandey got Beaumont out the last time these two played each other – albeit in the ninth over. This time, she will bank on the natural movement on offer at Lord’s to get another early wicket. Beaumont will bank on her knowledge of the conditions to navigate the new ball. Whoever among them blinks first, will give the opponents a crucial early advantage.

Mithali Raj vs Anya Shrubsole and Katherine Brunt

In an ideal scenario, the new ball bowlers would be up against the openers. But India have not been able to build a strong opening partnership since the 144-run stand in the first match. Assuming England’s pacers get an early wicket, the onus will be on captain Mithali Raj to guide the Indian innings as she has done throughout the tournament.

The consistent Raj will be the prized wicket for the hosts for several reasons: She is the second highest run-getter this World Cup, with one century and three fifties. She has scored more runs against England than anyone else in ODI cricket. She has also scored more than anyone else in ODI cricket, as a matter of fact.

Once she plays herself in, it takes a long time to dislodge her. Her presence at the crease also allows her batting partners to play more freely. The key for England will be to dismiss her early, and their best bet to do it is their sharp pace attack exploiting the new ball at Lord’s.

Anya Shrubsole and Katherine Brunt have so far been a tight new ball pair and the pressure they create with dot balls yields results on way or the other. Brunt may have only five wickets so far, but has an economy of just 3.74, impressive for a pacer bowling upfront. In the final, Knight will hope these two pacers can get her Indian counterpart out before the spinners come into play. However, Raj’s run in the tournament so far, says otherwise.

India’s spinners vs England’s middle order

This is the battle that will be at the core of the World Cup final: England’s biggest strength vs India’s biggest weapon. And this is the battle that will almost decide where the trophy goes.

That the English batters have been prolific this World Cup, is perhaps understatement. Four out of the top 10 highest run getters are English – Tammy Beaumont (387), Heather Knight (363), Sarah Taylor (351) and Nat Sciver (318). England have scored the top two this World Cup – 377/7 vs Pakistan and 373/5 vs South Africa. Sciver is also the only player to make more than one century.

At the same time, Indian spinners have been destructive in the English conditions, combining turn, flight and guile. They have taken a combined 41 wickets in the World Cup so far with two best bowling figures in the tournament to their name – Rajeshwari Gayakwad’s 5/15 against New Zealand and Ekta Bisht’s 5/18 against Pakistan.

When these two rampaging forces meet in the final, it’ll be a crucial clash. Their semi-final against South Africa showed that even the high-flying English can be kept quiet by smart bowling. Interestingly, it looks like Lord’s could aid the spinners, given Moeen Ali’s match-winning performance in the recently concluded Test match.

If the Indian spin attack – Deepti Sharma, Poonam Yadav, Gayakwad, and part-timer Harmanpreet Kaur (if fit) gets similar purchase, the English batters could be in for a serious trouble, like New Zealand. Similarly, if the English middle order fires all cylinders, the Indian spin guns could be used as cannon fodder, like South Africa. This battle within a battle is too close to call.

Deepti Sharma vs Heather Knight

When they get the ball, both Deepti Sharma and Heather Knight are bowlers that get breakthroughs. With the bat in hand, both make telling, game-changing contributions. Knight is the joint-highest wicket-taker for England, even though she has bowled half the overs the rest of the bowling unit has.

Sharma is India’s highest wicket-taker with 12 wickets, her off spin baffling most batters. Knight is also the second-highest run-getter for them with the highest average – a strong 56. Sharma hasn’t got a chance to bat as much, but can wrack up the big scores, case in pint, her record 188 earlier this year. Knight is the experienced captain at 26. Sharma is a talented rookie at 19. The similarities and differences between the two aside, both are the foremost all-rounders in their teams.

The last time these two teams played, Knight off-breaks got two of the three wickets that fell – Smriti Mandhana on 90 and Raj on 71. The captain will back herself to repeat that in the final, but the Indian batting has gotten only stronger since – batting as deep at nine on a good day.

On the other hand, India will hope Knight doesn’t dig in with the bat, since she’s the link between the middle- and lower-order, who can all bat it out big, as we saw in the tense semi-final against South Africa. It is against the same South Africa that Sharma top-scored with a watchful 60 as the team collapsed to 158.

It’ll be interesting to see how the two all-rounders shape the game on Sunday. But in this particular match-up, the bet is on Knight fighting her way through.

Harmanpreet Kaur vs … all the bowlers

After her assault against Australia, it almost seems unlikely that any bowler will trouble the big-hitter. But maybe injury could. If Harmanpreet Kaur is indeed fit to play the final, every English bowler will be wary of her bat. She can slog you cleanly over the ropes with as much ease as she plays crisp cricket shots. If Knight and Mark Robinson do come up with a plan to stop her and a bowler does execute it, well, good luck to them. For now, the only contest we see is Harmanpreet vs getting 100% fit in time for Sunday.