Even in defeat, Nadal’s warrior spirit has given us some of the most exciting Wimbledon matches

Rafael Nadal’s marathon fourth-round Wimbledon match that lasted four hours and forty-eight minutes on Monday, was yet another example of resilience, willpower, and sheer determination. The way he adjusted his game and changed tactics mid match after losing the first two sets, the way he fought off four match points late in the fifth, the way he served aces under pressure, all reminded the millions watching on Court One and on TV sets around the world why Nadal is such a legend.

And then, of course, there is the final scoreline – 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 15-13 to his opponent Gilles Muller of Luxembourg. This memorable match, the longest and best one of this year’s tournament so far, ultimately goes down as another heartbreaking loss for the man from Mallorca. As Nadal, ever gracious in defeat, signed autographs for fans after the match in growing darkness, one couldn’t help but wonder: Has the sun set on his hopes of ever winning another Wimbledon title?

It has been six years since Nadal last reached the final. Six long years, during which time his relationship with the tournament has grown frail. So much so that his losses no longer come as a huge surprise. This seems to be quite a turnaround for someone who reached three successive finals from 2006 to 2008, defeated Roger Federer who is arguably the best grass court player of all time in the best match of all time, won his second title in 2010, and reached his fifth final a year later.

From a no-hoper to a contender to back again

In fact, the way in which Nadal changed his game and taught himself how to play on grass after he was universally acknowledged as being a clay court specialist early in his career, is one of the most remarkable stories in the history of tennis. It is also an indication of how much Wimbledon has meant to him, and how important it has been for him to be a real contender there.

And yet, in the last six years, he seems to have reverted to that early phase when grass was not his ally. How and why has this happened, and is it irreversible?

The series of unexpected losses began in 2012, when Nadal lost a five-set match to Lukas Rosol of the Czech Republic in the second round. Rosol was playing in the main draw of Wimbledon for the very first time, having lost in the first round of the qualifying tournament the five previous years, and was ranked 100 at the time of this match.

The following year was even worse. Nadal crashed out in the first round to world No 135 Steve Darcis of Belgium in straight sets. It was his first competitive grass court match that season, and on that occasion he was suffering from a left knee injury. In 2014, Nadal managed to reach the fourth round, where he was blown off the court by Australian wild card Nick Kyrgios, ranked a lowly 144 in the world. In 2015, Nadal lost to yet another player ranked outside the top 100, Germany’s Dustin Brown, in the second round. This was the first time Nadal lost a Grand Slam match to a qualifier. In 2016, Nadal skipped Wimbledon due to injury.

What happens to Nadal on grass?

Detecting a pattern in Nadal’s losses over the years is not exactly rocket science. Here are some of the factors:

1. He has usually gone deep at the French Open, either winning the title or reaching the final. In any case, he plays an intense, gruelling clay court season in Europe, and then must transition very quickly to a completely different surface, one which has never been his favourite.  
2. Due to exhaustion or injury, he has sometimes skipped warm-up events on grass such as in 2013 and 2017, which leaves him with little match practice on the surface. This year, he began Wimbledon without having played a competitive grass court match in two years.  
3. He has nearly always lost in the early rounds when the grass is more slippery and the bounce more uneven. For someone who is not a natural grass court player, these are tricky conditions. His trademark topspin, so effective on clay, just doesn’t work as well on this surface.  
4. For someone with vulnerable knees it’s even harder to play well on grass when it’s slick, before it begins to wear out. Both Nadal and his coach,Uncle Toni, have reiterated that his knee problems in recent years make it difficult for him to bend low and get to balls on grass.  
5. Nadal loses typically to grass court specialists like Gilles Muller. Four of the five men who beat Nadal since 2011 are over 6 feet 4 inches in height. Rosol hit 22 aces against him, Kyrgios hit 37, and Muller hit 30. Players with massive serves and an aggressive game overpower him with their shots, which is why newspaper use words like “blasted,” “stunned” and “blown off the court” to describe these upsets.  

And yet, despite the string of shocking defeats Nadal suffered to much lower ranked opponents between 2012 and 2015, this year there was a sense of optimism about his return to the All-England Club.

Nadal has been, along with Federer, the best player of 2017. His resurgence saw him reach the finals of both the Australian Open and the Miami Masters on hard courts, before moving to the clay courts where he was nearly invincible. Fresh off his record tenth French Open title, and leading this year’s ATP race at the moment, Nadal was as confident as he’s ever been. And his game thrives on confidence.

He has also looked healthier than any time in the past few years, without any signs of the niggling knee and wrist injuries that have plagued his career. Under the watchful eye of new coach Carlos Moya, he has once again adjusted his game, with an improved backhand and serve. That is why, in the first three rounds of this year’s Wimbledon, Nadal did not drop a single set.

He won his matches against John Millman, Donald Young, and Karen Khachanov so easily, that, for the first time in years, experts were beginning to consider him a real favourite. Fans began to hope for a dream Roger/Rafa final. Add to that the fact that this year, the courts at the club have played quite slow, with the grass wearing off quickly to reveal large brown patches, and it would seem conditions too were conspiring to help the two-time former champion.

Muller was amazing, but Nadal will need a miracle now

Make no mistake about Gilles Muller. He is no unknown qualifier. He actually beat Nadal at Wimbledon back in 2005, before the Spaniard became a serious grass court player. That same year, he defeated former US player Andy Roddick in the first round of the US Open. An excellent serve and volley player, he is currently enjoying his best season ever. Last month, he won the Ricoh Open in the Netherlands, a lead-up event to Wimbledon, beating Sasha Zverev and Ivo Karlovic on the way.

Which is why, despite being ranked No 26 in the world, Muller was seeded 16th by the All-England Club. This guy can play on grass. On Manic Monday, he played the best tennis of his life, never losing his cool, even at crucial moments in the tense fifth set when the crowd was clearly supporting his opponent. At age 34, Muller demonstrated tremendous physical and mental endurance to withstand an onslaught of 77 winners from the world No 2.

Nadal’s performance – and defeat – this year do not quite fall under the same category as the previous one. And yet. The truth is that as soon as he met a grass court specialist with a big game, he faltered. In the first two sets he even looked quite helpless. And though he regrouped and fought as only he can, perhaps it was too late. And let’s face it. Even if he had somehow pulled off that victory, he would have had a very tough time in the next round against the fresh and in-form Marin Cilic of Croatia.

So, the question remains: If Nadal couldn’t get past the fourth round this year, when he was on top of his game and a hundred percent fit, then how is he going to ever do it again?

His diehard fans should take comfort in the fact that Nadal has already won Wimbledon twice. He completed the impressive French-Wimbledon double two times, a feat that has only been accomplished by two other players in the Open era.

But, what’s more important, over the years, he has given us some of the most exciting matches even at Wimbledon. If anyone can fashion a miracle win here in the next few years, it’s Nadal. But perhaps that’s what it will take for him now. A miracle. And even if it never comes to pass, let us be glad that he has already become an indelible part of the Wimbledon legacy.