The beauty of sport lies in the unexpected.
One of the joys about covering sports is making predictions, and the thrill of watching them come true or crumble. That chasm between being so right and being so wrong is what drives sportswriters to never forsake the privilege of calling out a game, a match or a series in favour of one team or the another. But, despite our expertise, sports writers often get predictions wrong. No one knows exactly how a game, match or series is going to turn out. Sure, there are game-altering historic moments like these, that convince you the game has one definitive result, but every shot, move and moments until the final whistle matters.
Much like the rest of the world, sports writers thrive on reputations. And reputation are built not just by sharing unbiased opinions, but by taking a stand and picking a side no matter how hard.
And much like I stuck my neck for the MVP race, picking James Harden over Russell Westbrook, I’m picking sides in these playoffs.
Washington Wizards (4) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)
Regular Season: Wizards beat the Hawks 3-1
The Wizards have to be the feel good story of the season.
They started the season with a lowly 16-16 record, vindicating detractors who believed the Wizards were never going to be an elite team. However, come 2017 and armed finally with a healthy roster, John Wall silenced critics and showed everyone that he is not just a top-10 NBA point guard, but often a top-10 NBA player. Wall led the Wizards to a blazing 33 wins for the fourth best record (33-17) in 2017, behind the Warriors, Spurs and Celtics. That’s enviable company.
Bradley Beal had his first healthy season in forever, establishing himself as a top-5 shooting guard in the NBA, and averaging a career-high 23 points while shooting over 40% from 3-point territory. The Wizards run was also helped by the surprising emergence of Otto Porter Jr. as a two-way threat. Porter Jr who was a staple on Shaqtin’ A Fool as recently as last season due to his clumsiness, turned himself into one of the deadliest 3-point shooters in the league and a solid defender who can cause havoc with his length and athleticism.
Throw in the emergence of Kelly Oubre Jr, a solid season from Markieff Morris and the ever reliable Marcin Gortat, and you have a team that can make some noise in the East and contend for the Conference title.
Atlanta, despite losing key players in Jeff Teague and Al Horford, did well to finish with 43 wins and fifth seed. Teague’s departure led to the growth of Dennis Schroeder and Tim Hardaway Jr. into starting guards on a playoff contender.
Replacing Horford was never going to be easy, and it didn’t help that hometown hero Dwight Howard, who was signed in the offseason, barely improved from his last season in Houston.
Paul Millsap, continued to be the focal point for the Hawks this season. He put up career offensive numbers, shooting moves from the outside, a direct result of the arrival of Howard who took care of business in the paint.
The Wizards won the regular season series, 3-1. The series had a blowout, a couple of close games and just one Hawks win. I believe it is a fair indicator of how the playoff series will unfold as well.
Except at forward with Millsap, the Hawks do not have the talent to contend with the Wizards. Sure there was the Hawks feisty OT win against Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that would count for, at best, one win in the Playoffs.
Expect the Wizards to wrap this up quickly.
Prediction: Wizards in 5.
Boston Celtics (1) vs Chicago Bulls (8)
Regular Season: Boston and Chicago split the series 2-2
The Celtics managed to snag the No 1 seed from the reigning NBA Champions, while riding the coattails of a 5’9” and the genius of coach Brad Stevens.
Isaiah Thomas, who missed the fourth quarter scoring title by a hair, has written one of the greatest stories of triumph in NBA history. He shot over 46% from the field and over 36% from the 3-point line this season, both figures better than the two leading MVP candidates, James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
Al Horford, an underrated big man, allowed mastermind coach Brad Stevens to spread out his motion offense further, taking advantage of both Horford’s range and his ability to pass. Avery Bradley, one of the NBA’s elite defenders, continues to improve, establishing himself as a credible offensive threat as well. Add Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk and even rookie Jaylen Brown (all solid this season) to the mix and the Celtics success makes sense.
Some of the success, though, is a mirage. While Boston took care of the lower tier teams, they were a woeful 20-21 against playoff teams. This is a huge problem when, well, you are in the playoffs.
The Sacramento Kings take the mantle of the most dysfunctional franchise this season, but the Chicago Bulls were close on their heels.
The Bulls experiment of bringing together three ball-dominant alpha-dogs on the same team failed miserably. Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo assured everyone that the Bulls were Butler’s team, but their body language made it seem like the season was a grind.
Jimmy Butler continues his rise from a rookie who was a defensive specialist to a top-20 NBA player. That and making the playoffs were the only bright spots for Chicago this season.
The two teams split the regular season series, and except for one game, the competition was tight. That is a problem with the Celtics. They rely heavily on fourth quarter runs and Thomas’s antics to deliver them wins. While that would work with an eight seed like Chicago, the Celtics would do well to sharpen their offence if they look to make a deep run these playoffs.
Jimmy Butler is about the only offensive threat the Bulls have and even he would have to contend with two elite defenders in Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart for the entire he is on the floor. There is a 40-point / 10-rebound Butler game lurking these playoffs, the Celtics will bag this series.
Prediction: Celtics in 5.
Golden State Warriors (1) vs Portland Trail Blazers (8)
Regular Season: Warriors swept the Trail Blazers 4-0
What a roller coaster of a season for the Warriors.
First being on the right side of one of the greatest signings in NBA history. Then spend a few weeks making it work. Then lose the big guy to injury on a freak accident. Then lose 5-of-7 games, including three games in a row for the first time in three seasons, while two of the greatest shooters in NBA history shot 34-of-128 from the 3-point line. Then have one of those shooters sign a toaster and finish the season on a 15-1 run.
The Warriors were never really in big trouble.
There was the pressure of being a 73-win team (from the previous season) and then signing Kevin Durant, one of the NBA’s four best players at his peak. However, what detractors fail to understand is that basketball is fun for the Warriors. No one on the Warriors, including the newly acquired Durant, cares who the star is and who isn’t.
Despite all the grief they got, they still clocked in 67 wins, and would have breached 70 (again) had the Durant injury not happened. They finished the season with the best offensive efficiency and the best net rating (offence minus defence). Everything about their season, including the return of Durant, indicates, they are NBA Champions come June.
Portland’s valiant run to make the playoffs was one of the more exciting stories of this season. They hovered in the middle of the West for a while, before blazing away to win 17 of their last 23 games. Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum still run that team, but the addition of Jusuf Nurkic is what added fuel to that fiery run to end the season. Nurkic, stunned the NBA when he, like his ex-teammate Nikola Jokic in Denver, unleashed upon the NBA, a new breed of passing big men. Now, with Nurkic in the paint, the Blazers got exactly what they wanted: a tertiary distributor who does not need the ball in his hands to be effective.
Of course Lillard is going to confidently proclaim that his Blazers will wrap up the Warriors in 6. What idiot expects him to say or believe otherwise?
The reality however is that the Warriors will make it through this, largely unscathed. The Blazers, will put up a fight, but I see this being done quickly.
Prediction: Warriors in 5.
Houston Rockets (3) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Regular Season: Rockets beat the Thunder 3-1
The matchup of the playoffs.
James Harden vs Russell Westbrook
The MVP Battle is on.
If the NBA, in a parallel universe, decided that just this series would be decided by a one-on-one game, I don’t think a single person on this planet will have a problem. Really. Can you imagine, Westbrook and Harden going one-on-one for a game of 21, best of seven games?! I can. Count me in.
The Rockets made all the right moves this season. They got rid of the Albatross Howard, loaded up with two sharpshooters in Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson and then sealed the deal with snagging Lou Williams at the trade deadline.
The masterstroke, however subtle, was Rockets GM Morey recognising that he had an uber talented point guard surrounded by sharpshooters and competent big men, and then bringing in the icon that invented the small-ball seven-seconds-or-less offense, Mike D’Antoni.
It definitely helped that Harden spent time in a gym, rather than cavorting with a Kardashian.
The result?
One of the best offensive seasons in the history NBA. With Harden as the head of the snake, the Rockets are shooting teams out of games. Their best defence is their offense. Much like D’Antoni orchestrated with Nash at the helm of the Phoenix Suns last decade. More importantly, Harden is back to having fun playing basketball.
With the pieces around him, Harden is by far the most potent pick-and-roll player in the NBA. this is not only evident by the numbers and shooting percentages his teammates are putting up, but also by the fact that despite his maniacal scoring pace, Harden leads the league in assists.
Westbrook’s season has been phenomenal. Holding fort upon losing Durant was not going to be easy. Rage and frustration would’ve been totally acceptable. But channelling that rage and frustration to churn out a historic season, average a triple-double and single-handedly win 47 games for your team, is the stuff legends are made off.
Westbrook’s barrage though, comes at a cost. He means everything to this team, both literally and figuratively. While his ability to win games is now not in doubt, his ability to get his teammates involved, certainly is. Eking out single handed victories during the regular season is great. But in a seven game playoff series against a team that will tweak plans to make your life difficult you need your teammates to step up. And that’s where the Thunder have failed. EnesKanter, Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo and Andre Roberson are all competent players who will enter the playoffs rustier than expected. When the time comes for them to step up to back up, Westbrook, they will not be able to, and for no fault of theirs.
The sad part about this series is that one of these two teams has to lose. And with that loss, one of the two MVP candidates will make an exit.
As hard it is to swallow, we have to make do and move on.
Prediction: That’s exactly what the Rockets will do. In 6.
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