The regular season ended with quite some noise. The last day itself had at least five battles that changed fates of teams fighting for either a playoff spot of playoff seed. As the saying goes, though, all’s well that ends well.
A quick thought.
As much as I love the NBA, the 82-game season gets weary. I manage to watch up to two games a day and catch all the highlights, but even that repetition can get cumbersome. There is rumbling that the league should seriously consider the length of the season and the number of games each team plays. In my head, the ideal number would 76.
Teams play their four division rivals four times, twice at home, twice away (16), play ten non-division rivals three times (30), and play 15 non-conference rivals twice (30). Add to that the current proposal to add a week to the schedule and you instantly eliminate the four-games-in-five-nights situation, save a ton of mileage on players’ legs and bodies thus getting rid of the “resting issue” and ensure the league’s best players are healthy and ready to battle in the playoffs.
Why is this point important for playoff preview article?
Because, the intensity of the playoffs is nothing close to that of the regular season. Teams will adapt better to their opponents, players are going to push themselves into a higher gear and refs are going to let the little stuff go. In this scenario, it is in the NBA’s best interests to have its best players and teams as healthy as they can be.
With that off my chest, let’s dive into Part 1 of the 2017 NBA Playoff previews:
Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs Indiana Pacers (7)
Regular season: Cavaliers sweep Pacers 4-0
The Cavaliers enter this postseason having played close to 300 games in the past three seasons. The signs of that tough schedule were showing as they huffed and puffed their way to the end of the season. With the start they had, no one would have bet against them winning the No 1 seed in the East. Yet, here they are at the No 2 seed, taking on No 7 seed Indiana Pacers.
The Pacers started and ended their season in the middle. It was an average season for a team that has lost its sense of identity. It was that same identity which took it to a bunch of deep postseason runs early this decade. They ought to have brought in some help for their star Paul George, but they stayed put in the offseason and at the trade deadline for reasons unknown.
Nothing about the regular season matchup between these two teams is going to change for the playoffs. The Cavaliers are still the more dominant team. They are a bit weary, but are healthy. No key player is dealing with an injury. Even without LeBron James, in whose absence they tend to be lost, the Cavaliers have enough firepower to take care of business.
It is in the Cavaliers’ best interests to wrap up the Pacers in four. Why? As you will read a bit later, the Raptors are going to be in a slugfest with the Bucks. The Cavaliers would do well to get the extra rest by sweeping the Pacers and then look to exploit the Raptors’ exhaustion on the way to their third consecutive Eastern Conference finals.
Paul George isn’t afraid of LeBron James. Expect him to bring the fight to the King, like he did in the epic double overtime showdown in Cleveland. But, the talent on the Pacers quickly drops off if Paul George isn’t firing. Jeff Teague and Myles Turner are not the answer. Expect them to put up some semblance of a fight. But everything indicates the Cavaliers have this series in the bag.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 4.
Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
Regular Season: Raptors beat the Bucks 3-1
The Raptors had three bright spots this season:
- The emergence of DeMar DeRozan as a No 1 scoring option on a playoff contender
- The blockbuster signing of Serge Ibaka at the trade deadline
- The Raptors holding forth by winning 13 of the 20 games that their best player, Kyle Lowry missed towards the end of the season.
With the addition of Ibaka, the Raptors made the biggest mid-season upgrade in the NBA. Now a 3-point threat, he has also found some of the magic that made him a defensive menace when he was with the Thunder. He gives the Raptors is a potent weapon with which to run the high screen and roll, making both Lowry and DeRozan becomes doubly dangerous if he sets the pick. The Bucks will have to pick their poison and live with it.
The signing of battle tested playoff veterans Matthew Delladova and Jason Terry gives the Bucks the grit, toughness and an edge the young team was woefully missing. They also deserve credit for steadying the boat despite starting the season without Khris Middleton, and then losing Jabari Parker to a season ending injury just days before Middleton returned to the lineup.
Giannis Antetokoumpo, who possesses the tools to become one the greatest to play in the NBA, improved in nearly every statistical category this season, and finished the season leading his team in five categories (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks), becoming just the fifth player in NBA history to do so. The 22-yr old is also the first NBA player to finish among the top-20 in each of these five categories.
The Greek Freak, as he is “affectionately” called. will be a matchup nightmare for the Raptors. Expect defensive assignments on him to switch between DeRozan, Ibaka and PJ tucker, all of whom he has considerable size or speed advantage.
Young, athletic and long, the Bucks clog the lanes like no other team does. When they are locked in, it is near impossible to get a shot from anywhere on the floor. The trouble is maintaining that intensity for 48 minutes.
In the end, though, the Raptors have been there, done that. The Bucks are not going to roll over and will give the Raptors a fight for their money, exhausting them for their eventual matchup against the Cavaliers. But that is for another column.
Prediction: The Raptors will prevail in 6.
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Regular Season: Spurs and Memphis split wins, 2-2
This ought to have been an emotionally tough season for the Spurs. Tim Duncan, the heart and soul of the franchise hung up his boots in the offseason. No one would have faulted them for not locking a top-4 seed.
However, not only did they hold forth, but went one better, knocking out a 60-win season for the second time in as many seasons, doing so for the first time in franchise history.
Kawhi Leonard has risen to become a top-5 player in the NBA. He should’ve been in serious consideration for MVP talk if it were not for the other-worldly seasons that James Harden and Russell Westbrook had.
It’s unfair the Leonard has to pay for the Spurs’ overall greatness and the statistical advantages that Harden and Westbrook have. Even a cursory glance at the Spurs roster reveals that there ought to have been more to worry that celebrate about. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge are all on the wrong side of 30. The much younger Patty Mills and Danny Green have playoff chops, but after that the roster is terrifyingly young.
The good news? The young roster that makes up most of the Spurs’ bench was exceptional during the season ranking No 1 defensively and No. 5 offensively.
Memphis Grizzlies took a high-risk-high-reward decision signing Chandler Parsons on a 5 year / $ 94 million dollar contract. When healthy, Parsons is a top-20 NBA forward who can shoot the 3, create his own shot, both gaping holes in Memphis’ offense. His history of injury, however, raised concerns when the Grizzlies signed him for the princely sum. To make matters worse, Parsons proved those concerned right when he went down on a season ending injury a few weeks ago.
There are still bright signs for Memphis. Both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are having career years. Zach Randolph has settled into his new role, becoming one of the most dangerous sixth men in the league. The emergence of Jamychal Green and Brandan Wright, along with another great season of shooting from the veteran Vince Carter, should give the Grizzlies some hope in the face of the Parsons fiasco.
Despite their average playoff pedigree, no one wants to see Memphis in Round 1. Why? They are physical and bang up your team with their slew of talented big men. This is especially true in the case of the Spurs, who have struggled against teams with talented big men.
I don’t expect Memphis to beat the Spurs, but expect them to make the Spurs earn each win with sweat and blood.
Prediction: Spurs in 6.
LA Clippers (4) vs Utah Jazz (5)
Regular Season: Clippers won the series 3-1
The Clippers have been predictable for a few seasons now. Bang out 50+ wins, make the playoffs, get knocked out early(ish). This season was no different.
Coming off a disappointing playoffs where they lost both Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and some of Austin River’s blood in a Round series against Portland, the Clippers largely stayed put in the offseason. They re-signed Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Luc Mbah a Moute, while also bringing on Raymond Felton and Marreese Speights.
Both Paul and Griffin missed roughly 20 games each, despite which the Clippers still managed to eke out 51 wins. However, except for Rivers, nothing about their season indicated a marked improvement over their performance last season.
The Utah Jazz are the surprise package in the playoffs, and like the Bucks in the East, are the potential sleeper in the West. How they managed to crack the fifth seed with a core of Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, George Hill and Rodney Hood, is a case study waiting to happen.
Hayward’s improvement has been impressive. Not only is he playing better, scoring more and shooting efficiently, he has acquired the confidence of a leader, something the Jazz sorely lacked. Gobert is a throwback to the omnipresent big man, because of whom opposing teams have to change offensive rotations. He rightly deserves to be in the conversation for the Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Despite the Clippers winning the regular season record, there isn’t a clear indication of which way this series could swing. The two teams are healthy and match up well; whether it is Hill vs. Paul, Hayward vs. JJ Reddick or (my favorite) DeAndre Jordan vs. Gobert.
At gunpoint, though, I would have to pick the Clippers simply because they have far more playoff experience. The jazz feature a couple of players (Hill, Joe Johnson, Boris Diaw) with playoff experience, but they don’t form the core of who the Jazz rely on to win games.
The matchups will keep this close, maybe too close to the Clippers comfort.
This goes seven.
Prediction: Clippers in 7.
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