What does Rafael Nadal need to do to beat Roger Federer in the Miami Open final?

And, so, they shall meet again.

For the 37th time in their career, and for the third straight time in as many months, the Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal rivalry will mark a chapter anew. Nostalgia will, however, war with expectations in their Miami Open final on Sunday, given that the antecedents of their rivalry were set at the same venue, over 13 years ago, in 2004.

Known as the Nasdaq-100 Open back then, the round-of-32 matchup saw the two youngsters – one of whom who was still in his teens – play each other for the first time in their careers. The 17-year-old Nadal surprisingly got the better of Federer, who had had become the world No 1 for the first time in his career in February that year, in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3.

The Fedal rivalry: The modern-day tennis legacy

It boded ominously for Federer that his game, which his other rivals found so hard to get a read on, was easily exploited by the Spaniard, who was still yet to cut his teeth fully on the pro circuit. There was the first glimpse of the now famous game-plan of Nadal’s top-spin laden forehand spinning across the net to Federer’s lone-handed backhand, which also led to more than a decade worth of introspection on the Swiss’ probable tactics to neutralise those stinging forehand shots.

Cut to 2017, Federer looks to have finally found the answer to the forehand-to-backhand conundrum by stepping inside the baseline to take the ball early and eventually driving it to Nadal, with zinging forcefulness of his own on the return.

Caught unawares as Nadal was, with no recourse to back up his tactics in either the Australian Open or at Indian Wells, the final outcome at the Miami Open can, however, come about in his favour.

Unlike in Melbourne or in Indian Wells, the surface speed of the court in Miami is considerably slower. Thus, while Federer dictated the terms of play against Nadal in those two tournaments, benefiting from speedier courts, the slowness in the court speed will favour the Spaniard, who will have more time for his shot-placement.

What needs to change for Rafa?

Potentially hitting deeply-angled shots on both sides of the court, forcing Federer to move corner-to-corner and then drawing him out forward to the net, and then finishing off the points with passing shots will help Nadal accentuate the potency of his game.

Firstly, as a means to overwhelm the Swiss who, despite his protestations, will be feeling the fatiguing effects of having played two gruelling three-setters, back-to-back on consecutive days. And, secondly, to try and sidestep the fourth seed, who has modified his style of play according to each opponent he has gone to face in each of the five prior rounds.

This has made it difficult to get a read on the two-time former Miami Open champion’s tactics, match-after-match. But Nadal will have to outrun Federer on the day, forcing him to second-guess those very modulations that gave him the barest of margins from which he was able to sneak in victories.

Assessing his 6-1, 7-5 win over Fabio Fognini in Friday’s semi-final, Nadal mentioned, “My serve worked well. I think I didn’t face a break point during the whole match, so that is something that I am very happy with. That gives you calmness when you have opportunities on the return and you don’t convert.”

Beyond focusing on tactical strengths and weaknesses, the Mallorcan also needs to try and regain the mental composure that he had enjoyed over Federer in all these years of their competitive co-existence, right until their 35th meeting, at Melbourne Park in January. The two consecutive losses to Federer then has countermanded Nadal’s self-belief like never before, giving his older rival the upper-hand for the first-time.

A twist to the recent Fedal rivalry?

“It’s definitely going to be very special playing Rafa here again,” Federer said in his press address after his semi-final. “I’m thrilled for him that he came back as well as he did after the comeback and the struggles that he had last year.”

Along with his fond reminiscing, the 18-time Grand Slam champion’s tone also had a slight inflection of presumptuousness which seemed to have been brought about in the wake of his recent wins over Nadal.

“It feels like old times,” he added. We’re playing each other every week now. We can’t get enough of each other. Hopefully it’s not our last match. [But] I feel like there is a mountain to climb in Rafa. He’s hasn’t won this event before. He’s definitely feeling fresher than I feel right now. But that’s not a problem. I’ll be ready on Sunday.”

Be that as it may, in the myriad manifestations of Federer’s domination in these last two weeks, Nadal has come to be the underdog, with his results – far easier as they have come about – left thoroughly in the background.

In that then, their 37th meeting is not so different from their first, with the Swiss pegged as the favourite and the Spaniard as the dark horse, completing their contests into a singular circle, the likes of which wasn’t anticipated at all. Neither by the sport’s pundits and audiences, nor by Federer and Nadal themselves.