Manipur election: Can the BJP go from no seats in 2012 to a majority in 2017?

In many ways, the Manipur contest resembles Assam’s last year. A Congress government entrenched in the state for 15 years, the Bharatiya Janata Party emerging as a serious challenger for the first time, and smaller regional parties making inroads into the support base of both. But will the BJP be able to replicate its Assam victory in Manipur?

Several factors played a role in the BJP victory in Assam. The party was able to forge strategic alliances with regional players in areas where it had scant presence. It deployed a subtle brand of Hindutva so that existing tensions between communities considered indigenous to the state and so-called illegal settlers acquired a communal hue. It topped a growing base of party workers with well-known regional leaders and a chief ministerial candidate. Finally, there was the miraculous poll arithmetic that the BJP has mastered, turning a 29.5% vote share, less than the Congress’s 31%, into a sweeping victory.

But the BJP in Manipur is a different beast. And the factors that worked for it last year may not go its way this time.

A different polarisation

Religious majorities occupy distinct geographical spaces in Manipur: the Imphal Valley is mostly Hindu while the hills that surround are predominantly Christian. But this does not necessarily translate into religious polarisation.

According to observers in Imphal, Vaishnavism, which spread in Manipur in the 18th century, remains a strong influence. But the state is also rediscovering its indigenous roots, remembering older cultures, languages and forms of worship. The Hindutva of the Hindi heartland has not been able to strike deep roots in the valley.

This election was polarised by competing claims to land and indigeneity. Old rivalries between the hills and the plains were sharpened by the policies of Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh’s government. First, it passed three bills that imposed restrictions akin to the inner line permit system over the whole state – which the valley wanted, but which caused the hill districts to rise up in arms. Under the provisions of the bills, those who do not qualify as “Manipur people” would need official permission to enter the state and find it difficult to buy land there. Then, just months before the election, it created seven new districts. The decision triggered an economic blockade by Nagas living in the hills, and set the hills against the plains. It also reopened the old rift between the Nagas and the Kukis, the two dominant tribes of the hills.

The polarisation was supposed to work to the advantage of both national parties. For Singh, it meant that the Meiteis who inhabit the valley would huddle closer to the Congress, especially after the Naga blockade inflicted economic pain on Imphal and remains in place after four months.

The Naga areas in the hills, meanwhile, seemed to be assured to the BJP. The party in power at the Centre has already signed a framework agreement for a Naga accord with the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah faction), a militant group under ceasefire. But the BJP’s apparent sympathy to the Naga cause seemed to work against it in the valley.

Playing to the valley

The streets of Imphal bear graffiti painted by Meitei student unions, asking how long the government of India meant to talk to the “terrorist NSCN(IM)”. Before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Imphal on February 25, the Coordination Committee, a conglomeration of Meitei underground groups, called for a strike in the state.

So the BJP has been hesitant to cash into the yields of this polarisation between the hills and the valley. The valley contains more than 60% of the state’s population and a party that is serious about coming to power in Manipur cannot afford to alienate this vast votebank. The BJP refrained from making specific promises to the hills and scrambled to assure voters in the valley that the Naga accord would not affect Manipur.

Its vision document begins with its “Firm Commitment to Protect Manipur’s Territorial Integrity”, before moving on to promises of jobs, health insurance, drinking water and action in fake encounter and corruption cases. It also slips in a few lines about the welfare of religious minorities, specifically, the Meitei Pangals, who are predominantly Muslim.

Rivals in the hills

Meanwhile, in the Naga areas, where the Congress seems to have given up the fight, the BJP also faces a serious competitor. The Naga People’s Front, fighting elections in 15 seats, has emerged as the party representing the community’s political demands. The saffron party and the Naga party are allies at the national and regional levels: in the National Democratic Alliance at the Centre, the North East Democratic Alliance launched by the BJP last year and the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland.

In the Manipur hills, however, early talk of a pre-poll alliance soon died out. According to the BJP, a chill set in after the United Naga Council, which is backing the Naga political party, refused to lift the economic blockade in February. According to the Naga People’s Front, however, a post-poll alliance could be on the cards.

Party people

Finally, the BJP is yet to establish itself as a significant presence on the ground. Unlike in Assam, where the party has been making steady gains over the last few elections, the BJP is a new entrant in Manipur’s electoral landscape. It won no seats in the 2012 Assembly elections or the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The party seems to have taken heart from its victories in the municipal elections last year, where it won 10 out of 27 seats.

The party in Manipur went through an overhaul last year, with Kshetrimayum Bhabananda Singh, a former swayamsevak, appointed as chief of the state unit and a change of guard in the executive posts. But it still faces structural limitations.

To begin with, the party suffers from the absence of high-profile leaders in the state. In Assam, it had prominent faces in Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, a member of Parliament, and Sarbananda Sonowal, who left the Asom Gana Parishad to join the BJP and had already had a stint as Union sports minister before becoming the party’s chief ministerial candidate. Shortly before the polls, it imported Himanta Biswa Sarma, a Congress heavyweight.

In Manipur, too, most of its prominent leaders are recent imports from the Congress. Nongthombam Biren Singh, footballer-turned-journalist-turned-politician, resigned as vice-president of the Congress in October to join the BJP. Anxious to make up for its lack of a political record in the state, the saffron party has filled its list of electoral candidates with Congress defectors.

But this may have had an adverse effect on the BJP rank and file. Like in Assam, the party went on a recruitment drive in Manipur, holding small public meetings at the local level. With recent Congress imports getting poll tickets, however, many older members defected to other local parties, such as the Manipur National Democratic Front and the National People’s Party.

The North East push

None of these constraints stopped the saffron party from fighting an aggressive campaign. In the towns and villages of Manipur, BJP flags and hoardings threatened to edge out the Congress’s. It even composed a campaign jingle especially for Manipur. Besides, the BJP holds a trump card – as the party in power in Delhi, it holds the keys to Central funds so crucial for the development of the poor states of the North East.

The saffron party’s plans of eastward expansion became apparent after it forged the North East Democratic Alliance last year. With Assam, it opened its account in the region. Arunachal Pradesh came soon after, but it was not an electoral victory. Manipur will decide whether the BJP is there to stay.