Uttar Pradesh elections: Is this make or break for Rahul Gandhi?

The month-long, seven-phase assembly poll in Uttar Pradesh, which drew to a close on Wednesday, has been billed as a make-or-break election for all the four political stakeholders: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, Bahujan Samaj Party Chief Mayawati and Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi. These leaders campaigned tirelessly in this election, well aware that the result is not just critical for their respective parties but will also impact their personal political fortunes.

Of these four leaders, Rahul Gandhi has far more riding on this election than Modi or Akhilesh Yadav as far as their personal reputations are concerned even though the Congress is a marginal player in Uttar Pradesh.

Uncertain leader

Unlike the others, Rahul Gandhi is struggling to establish himself as a credible leader, both within the party with the Congress cadres and outside with the electorate. Although he has been pitched as his party’s Prime Ministerial candidate, the Nehru-Gandhi scion has no administrative experience, having refused to join the Cabinet when the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government was in power for 10 years. At the same time, Rahul Gandhi has failed to notch up any electoral victories for his party. As it happens, the Congress has been reduced to a mere 44 members in the Lok Sabha and has fared poorly in a string of state assembly polls over the past three years- all conducted under Rahul Gandhi’s watch.

The Uttar Pradesh assembly poll is particularly under scrutiny as it was Rahul Gandhi, aided by his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who pushed for an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. The move had met with strong resistance from a section in the Congress which felt that this partnership would hurt the party’s long-term efforts to rebuild its organization in a state where it had once been a pre-eminent political force. On the other hand, it was argued that this alliance was necessary as the party’s current top priority was to stop the BJP from expanding its footprint.

However, questions will once again be raised about Rahul Gandhi’s leadership capabilities if the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance fails in its primary objective of halting the BJP juggernaut. The Congress may not witness a revolt against Rahul Gandhi but dissenting voices will become louder and the task of establishing a firm grip over the party and rebuilding the organisation will become much tougher. At the same time, the Congress vice-president will find it harder to measure up to his bête noire, Narendra Modi as a prospective Prime Ministerial candidate since the credibility gap between the two leaders will widen further in case the BJP takes Uttar Pradesh. In such a situation, Rahul Gandhi can hope to salvage his reputation if the Congress is able to wrest Punjab from the Shiromani Akali Dal- BJP alliance and beat back anti-incumbency by winning a second term in Uttarakhand.

Brand leader

On the other hand, a loss in the Hindi heartland state, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, will no doubt be a serious blow for the BJP which believes that a victory in Uttar Pradesh will help consolidate the party’s position in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But it is unlikely to dent Brand Modi. Although Modi was the party’s chief campaigner in these assembly polls and the verdict in Uttar Pradesh is being viewed by his opponents as a referendum on the Prime Minister’s popularity, a defeat or a below-par performance will, at best, prove to be a temporary setback for him. It was the same when the BJP suffered a humiliating defeat in the Bihar and Delhi assembly elections which had also centred around Modi. It was widely believed then that the Modi magic had finally begun to fade. But, as subsequent events have shown, Modi’s reputation as a strong, decisive and credible leader still holds, especially since a fractious opposition has failed to throw up a worthy challenger.

Youth leader

After emerging victorious from the bitter factional feud in the Yadav family, this election is equally crucial for Akhilesh Yadav. This is the first time that he contested the election on his own, with no help from his father Samajwadi Party founder Mulayum Singh Yadav and his uncle Shivpal Yadav. The two senior leaders are credited with building the party organisation in the state and were the chief strategists in the 2012 assembly polls which propelled the Samajwadi Party to a clear win and paved the way for Akhilesh Yadav’s coronation as heir apparent with his appointment as chief minister. Five years later, the Samajwadi Party campaign was a one-man show as Mulayum Singh Yadav chose to stay away from the field while Shivpal Yadav made strenuous efforts to sabotage his nephew’s election.

While this election is important for Akhilesh Yadav to prove that he has indeed emerged as a leader in his own right, a defeat will not necessarily damage him substantially. Having established himself as the true inheritor of Mulayum Singh Yadav’s political legacy, Akhilesh Yadav has now been accepted by the Samajwadi Party rank and file as the party’s future. Even if his party fares poorly , the month-long poll campaign showed that Akhilesh Yadav’s image has not been dented. On the other hand, people from all sections reacted positively to him, admitting that he had a clean image and had proved to be an able administrator, despite interference by his father and uncle. Given his personal reputation, Yadav junior will be firmly incharge of the Samajwadi Party. In fact, the bitter battle he waged with his father and uncle was essentially a turf war to get control of the party with an eye on the post-poll scenario. Had Akhilesh Yadav not taken over the party, he would have been internally marginalized after the elections, especially if it was relegated to the opposition benches.

Unquestioned leader

Like Modi and Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati will retain her grip over the Bahujan Samaj Party even if a victory eludes her this time as her party continues to be seen as representing the interests of the Dalits, its core support base.