UP polls: Did SP orchestrate seat-sharing crisis with Congress to pre-empt rebellion in its ranks?

The Samajwadi Party and the Congress sealed a pre-poll alliance in Uttar Pradesh on Sunday after nearly three days of feuding over how much seats each party could get. But one question is being asked: was the crisis real, or was it orchestrated by the Samajwadi Party leadership to pre-empt a possible rebellion in constituencies that would fall in the Congress kitty?

The talk of an alliance, which had been doing the rounds for several days, had created a new political situation for a party that has ruled the politically-crucial state for several years in the last two-and-a-half decades, and has developed a strong presence in almost every constituency.

The alliance threatened the prospects of a large number of local Samajwadi Party leaders who have their own network of supporters in constituencies being handed over to Congress, said party insiders close to Samajwadi Party president and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav.

“Until the seat-sharing talks hit a hurdle, there was total confusion among local party leaders in several parts of the state,” said a senior party leader. “Many feared being left out in case of an alliance. Had there not been this crisis, several local leaders in constituencies being handed over to Congress would have started looking for new ways to contest elections, thus creating a revolt-like situation in the party.”

This scenario could have offered Samajwadi Party leader Shivpal Yadav – who is yet to come out of the public humiliation he suffered at the hands of his nephew, Akhilesh Yadav – a golden opportunity to make a serious comeback bid by exploiting the sentiments of party cadres and local leaders in the 105 constituencies being handed over to the Congress.

That would have been disastrous not just for Akhilesh Yadav but for the new alliance too as the organisational structures of all partners have to work in tandem and with full strength for an alliance to succeed.

But with Tuesday being the last day for candidates for the first phase of the polls to file their nominations, potential rebels would have little time to organise. The elections are being held in five phases, from February 11 to March 8.

Break-up anxiety

On January 17, soon after Congress general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad, in Delhi, and Akhilesh Yadav, in Lucknow, declared that they would jointly contest the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, buzz started gaining ground about possible unrest among the Samajwadi Party’s traditional stakeholders in constituencies that may have been left for the Congress, said party insiders.

“The hurdle in talks with the Congress, however, changed the mood of the party throughout the state,” said the Samajwadi Party leader. “The crisis was watched with deep anxiety by party leaders and workers who feared uncertainty if we were to go to the polls alone. The resolution of the crisis, on the other hand, has come as a big relief to all. It has revived the hope of victory and almost eliminated the possibility of any eruption [of a revolt] in our ranks due to an alliance with Congress.”

Thus, news of the hurdle in the talks consolidated the alliance and freed the party leadership of the fear of a possible comeback by Shivpal Yadav.

In a way, the short-lived crisis on the seat-sharing formula with the Congress may appear to be an extension of the intense feud in the Yadav family that raged for months and ended up in arguably consolidating the clean image of Akhilesh Yadav. As the younger Yadav fought with his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and uncle Shivpal Yadav, his loyalists launched a major campaign to make the family feud look like a battle between “an honest and reformist administrator” and “a corrupt and decaying old order” that must be cleaned up if the party had to win the upcoming election, and if the state had to remain on the path of development.

“Perhaps it was this unusual benefit of the succession battle in the party that might have prompted Akhilesh’s election managers to go for a fresh crisis to consolidate the alliance,” the Samajwadi Party leader said.

It is not without reason, therefore, that in the joint press conference called to announce the breakthrough on Sunday, the Congress’s Uttar Pradesh president Raj Babbar merely talked about issues the alliance would stand for while Samajwadi Party state chief Naresh Uttam used the occasion to “appeal to all workers and leaders of Samajwadi Party to ensure victory for Congress candidates so that Akhilesh Yadav could become chief minister again.”