The Election Commission on Wednesday announced dates for the Punjab Assembly elections this year, with all 117 seats in the state set to go to the polls in a single phase on February 4. Punjab and Goa, which votes on the same day, are the first of five states holding elections over February and March, with counting for all set to be conducted on March 11.

Punjab

Phases: 1

Election day: February 4

Counting day: March 11

After Uttar Pradesh, Punjab’s election will be the most closely watched because of the many story lines that are playing out this year. The state is currently ruled by an alliance of the Shiromani Akali Dal and the Bharatiya Janata Party, with Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal having been in control over two terms since 2007.

For decades, state elections have meant a straightforward battle between the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine and the Congress. But 2017 promises to be different because of the presence of the Aam Aadmi Party. The Delhi-based upstart put in a surprisingly successful performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, winning four seats and getting a vote share of 24.4%, nearly as much as the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal’s 26.3%.

This makes the state all the more important for the Congress, which, despite getting 33.1% of the vote share, only managed to pick up three seats. One of those, however, was important because former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh managed to defeat senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley in Amritsar, dealing the saffron party a serious blow even in what came to be known as a “Modi wave” election.

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Singh is now leading the Congress’ campaign, helped by poll strategist Prashant Kishor. With the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine facing serious anti-incumbency after 10 years in power as well as friction between the alliance partners, this might represent the Congress’ best shot at picking up a major state after its horrible results in most of 2014 and 2015.

But AAP may yet play spoilsport. Although it seemed like it was in a prime position to win Punjab midway last year, that early effervescence seems to have petered out, as identity politics, surgical strikes and demonetisation made their way through the state. It has been bolstered by a number of local leaders joining, but not enough to fully give it a Punjabi identity.

AAP is hoping to convince the people of Punjab that see-sawing between the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine and the Congress does them no favours, as the giant budget deficit and agricultural crisis shows. But it could just as easily end up splitting the anti-incumbency vote enough to give the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP a fighting chance.

Here’s some background to the battle: