As Congress hopes rise for an alliance with Akhilesh Yadav, the BJP may just have got an edge

The fast-paced developments in Uttar Pradesh have opened up a fresh possibility for the beleaguered Congress. The grand old party believes it has a chance of aligning with Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav in next year’s assembly polls if he forms his own party after his expulsion from the Samajwadi Party.

Realising that it is bit player in the crucial state, the Congress had been exploring the possibility of an alliance with the Samajwadi Party for the past few weeks. It was encouraged to do so after Akhilesh Yadav had publicly declared that the Samajwadi Party and the Congress could win over 300 seats if they contested next year’s Uttar Pradesh assembly elections together. Congress insiders said Akhilesh Yadav’s push for this alliance followed a personal interaction with party vice-president Rahul Gandhi.

However, the dialogue between the two parties failed to make much headway because of the internal bickering in the Yadav clan. This chapter was closed after Samajwadi Party chief Mulayum Singh Yadav declared a list of 325 candidates, announcing candidates for seats the Congress had wanted and leaving out several of Akhilesh Yadav’s key aides, on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Akhilesh Yadav struck back with the release of a parallel list of 235 candidates. Significantly, this list did not name any candidates for a large number of seats considered preferential by the Congress, including all those seats barring two that the Congress currently holds.

Congress hopes

Now that matters have come to a head in the Samajwadi Party resulting in Akhilesh Yadav’s expulsion, the Congress feels there is a chance of an electoral tie-up, provided the expelled Uttar Pradesh chief minister walks out and forms his own party or wrests control of his party. It also helps that Rahul Gandhi enjoys a personal rapport with Akhilesh Yadav.

The Congress believes that this partnership will consolidate the minority vote, which would otherwise gravitate towards Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, while Akhilesh Yadav’s personal popularity, especially with the youth and women, would be a vote catcher. The party has also argued that an alliance was the need of the hour as it could contain the Bharatiya Janata Party which is the party’s top priority today. To begin with, the Congress is said to have assured Akhilesh Yadav of the support of its 28 legislators in case he is asked to prove his majority in the assembly.

The Congress is, therefore, keeping a close watch on the Samajwadi Party saga. Ghulam Nabi Azad, party incharge of Uttar Pradesh, is in Lucknow and is said to be in touch with the Akhilesh Yadav camp.

However, it is not yet clear how the chief minister intends to proceed, following his expulsion by his father Mulayum Singh Yadav, who has chosen to side with his brother Shivpal Yadav. While Akhilesh Yadav has been locked in a turf war with his uncle Shivpal Yadav for several months now, the confrontation took an ugly turn during the last few days over the distribution of tickets.

As the sole inheritor of Mulayum Singh Yadav’s political legacy, it has been Akhilesh Yadav’s attempt so far to wrest control of the Samajwadi Party from his uncle Shivpal Yadav who has the support of a sizeable section of workers since he has been handling the party finances and organisational affairs. However, Akhilesh Yadav failed to enlist the support of his father who is said to have been influenced by his brother, his second wife Sadhna Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav’s step-brother Prateek Yadav and his wife Aparna.

Real test

Though the swelling crowds outside his residence indicate immense ground support for him, it will not be easy for Akhilesh Yadav to walk out and form his own party. He is slated to meet party legislators and workers on Saturday where he is expected to assess the extent of his support.

Before taking the next step, Akhilesh Yadav will have to factor in the reality that he has not contested an election on his own and that the party’s legacy and the chief minister’s post was handed over to him by Mulayum Singh Yadav who had masterminded the 2012 assembly polls along with Shivpal Yadav.

There is no doubt that Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as a leader in his own right but it is not clear if he has the capacity and the capability to strike out on his own. After all, he will be pitted against the wily Mulayum Singh Yadav whose political skills can not be underestimated even though he is not keeping good health these days.

On the other hand, there is a section in the Congress which is convinced that the whole drama in the Samajwadi Party has been scripted by Mulayum Singh Yadav to enhance his son’s image and insulate him from the anti-incumbency against his government. That may appear far-fetched after the developments on Friday but party leaders who are well acquainted with the Samajwadi Party chief believe it will not be a surprise if Mualyum Singh Yadav changes his stance on the ground that he was bowing to the wishes of the party cadres who favour Akhilesh Yadav.

Irrespective of how this political drama unfolds, it is clear that the family feud in the Samajwadi Party has given the Bharatiya Janata Party an edge in the forthcoming elections. The polls could well witness a battle between the BJP and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party while the Samajwadi Party and the Congress will lag way behind in this four-cornered contest.

Unless, of course, Akhilesh Yadav can yet pull off a miracle.