After a scattered start, the Opposition unites against demonetisation. But will it be enough?

After adopting differing strategies on cornering the Narendra Modi government in Parliament over its decision to ban high-denomination currency notes, Opposition parties are now putting up a united fight on the move. Having derailed parliamentary proceedings for three days, they have now decided to stage a protest outside Parliament on Wednesday.

“Opposition parties have jointly decided that their MPs will hold a dharna in front of the Gandhi statue on Wednesday,” Trinamool Congress leader Derek O’Brien told the media on Monday.

West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, who has taken the lead in opposing the demonetisation move, will arrive in Delhi on Tuesday to take her battle to the streets. She had led a protest march to Rashtrapati Bhavan last week to demand that the Centre’s decision be revoked. She was then joined by the Shiv Sena, the National Conference and the Aam Aadmi Party. The other parties had stayed away and had instead agreed to participate in a debate on the government’s decision.

However, the Opposition parties have since regrouped and come together to take on the government. They have given notices for an adjournment motion in the Lok Sabha and have abandoned the debate in the Rajya Sabha to demand that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and not Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reply to the discussion. They are also demanding that a joint parliamentary committee be constituted to investigate how information about the demonetisation was leaked before the formal announcement on November 8. The government has rejected this demand.

Although the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is still wary about sharing a platform with the Trinamool Congress, its arch-rival, it is expected to set aside its state-level differences on this matter. The party’s general secretary, Sitaram Yechury, has initiated unity moves among Opposition parties. He met Janata Dal (United) leader Sharad Yadav on Sunday to discuss floor coordination. At the same time, political opponents Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have taken similar positions against the ban of high-value banknotes that, they say, is causing immense hardship to the common man.

The Opposition plans to intensify its attack if the present restlessness among cash-starved people gives way to a wave of anger against the government. Both its leaders and those of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party admit that the next fortnight is crucial, stating that the situation could get out of hand if the Centre is unable to pump in more currency in rural areas, where the problem is more acute.

This show of unity is reminiscent of the manner in which disparate political parties had come together to oppose the government’s decision to amend the land acquisition Bill in March 2015. All Opposition parties had then joined hands and marched together from Parliament House to Rashtrapati Bhavan to protest the government’s “anti-poor and pro-rich” move. Unable to drive a wedge in the Opposition ranks, the ruling alliance was eventually forced to go back on its earlier decision on the land Bill.

Reacting to the present show of strength by Opposition parties, a Congress leader declared, “This is a precursor to the formation of an anti-BJP national front.” However, this excitable statement has not convinced many. Similar views were expressed when Opposition parties had closed ranks on the land Bill but this unity turned out to be a one-issue exercise as their state-level rivalries resurfaced once their demand was met.

Deep divisions

If the Opposition parties are serious about putting up a joint fight against the BJP this time, they have an opportunity to demonstrate their sincerity by forming a Bihar-like grand alliance or mahagathbandhan in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh. But this appears highly unlikely as Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has publicly stated that his party will not have an alliance with any other political party.

Meanwhile, the Janata Dal (United) and the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal have announced an electoral pact for next year’s Uttar Pradesh polls. The possibility of the Bahujan Samaj Party forging an alliance with its arch-rival, the Samajwadi Party, is also remote. A desperate Congress is in the hunt for partners but has found no takers. Consequently, the grand show of unity in Parliament will prove to be a futile exercise, especially if Modi’s gamble pays off and the BJP emerges victorious in Uttar Pradesh.

This is despite the fact that all Opposition parties are in agreement that the decision on demonetisation was dictated not by economic but political reasons with an eye on the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. “Modi wants to win Uttar Pradesh at any cost… he is willing to go to any length to form a government there,” remarked a senior Congress leader who did not want to be identified.

The move to demonetise high-value currency notes, he said, was meant to put a squeeze on the funds of other political parties in the state, especially the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party. In fact, Opposition leaders said, the latest move was aimed at all regional parties as Modi realises that it is not the Congress but these players that are thwarting the BJP’s plans to improve its geographical footprint. “The real challenge to the BJP comes from these regional parties,” remarked another Congress leader.

The differences among Opposition parties are not confined to Uttar Pradesh alone. For instance, the Trinamool Congress and the Left parties are unlikely to come together in West Bengal. It is the same story in Tamil Nadu where the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam can never be on the same side of the political divide. If the BJP is optimistic about its political future, it is precisely because of these divisions in the Opposition camp.