Thanks to an overpacked schedule, Dominic Thiem's chances at the ATP Finals seem bleak

The 2016 ATP World Tour Finals is a study in contrasts. It features two newcomers – the oldest is the 30-year-old Gael Monfils and the youngest is the 23-year-old Dominic Thiem – among the other six qualifiers.

The two players’ fortunes in the tournament have been contrasting too. Placed in the same group, the Ivan Lendl Group, an injury-affected Monfils was ousted from the event after losing his initial two round robin matches, one of which was against Thiem on Tuesday. On the eve of his last group match against Djokovic, Monfils withdrew from the event allowing first alternative David Goffin to take his match and play against the Serbian.

Thiem is still hanging on by the barest of margins, with a win against Milos Raonic sure to send him through to his first-ever semi-final in his maiden year of qualifying. The only problem is no one knows, which version of the Austrian will be present in his showdown against Raonic. For, the Thiem who’s been around in the last four months is an antithesis to the player, who showed up to tournaments in the first six months of the year, right up to Wimbledon.

A breakthrough at the beginning...

In a year that has been full of surprises, and not all of them of the good variety, Thiem’s coming into the forefront of the men’s tennis bubble was a welcome phenomenon. It meant well for the future of tennis that had started to look it had reached the point of no return beyond the oligopoly of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and in the last few years, Stan Wawrinka. Categorically, Thiem’s rise also augured well in inserting a positive vein of thought about some of the ill-behaved younger players around the same age-group, like Bernard Tomic, who has had several controversial outbursts this year alone.

Defeating Nadal and Federer, the latter twice, earlier in the year added weight to that premise. One that he substantiated by reaching the semi-final of the French Open, losing a valiant straight-setter to the eventual champion, Djokovic.

If a place in the second-last round of a Major were to be considered his peak, inadvertently it was also Thiem’s downfall. His results started to suffer, slowly to commence with, and then accelerating under the influence of fatigue. Pre-French Open, Thiem had reached the finals of four events and had won three of them. Barring the Munich final in April that he lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber, Thiem had won the three remaining events in Buenos Aires and Acapulco, both in February, and Nice in May convincingly. In the aftermath of the French Open, he made it to two more finals. He won in Stuttgart in June, but went on to lose in Metz in August in his last final of 2016, until now.

...followed by dwindling returns

He acknowledged that playing week in and week out was affecting his performances, after his US Open fourth round defeat to Juan Martin del Potro, in August in which he was forced to retire mid-match trailing the Argentinian by a set and a break.

“I will adapt. I never expected to play this many matches this year. But it happened and next year, I am going to change it up a bit,” he had shared. But that did not stop him from adding more events to his season’s roster. Seemingly, the only break between events that he has got has been in the week-long break between the Paris Masters and the London finals.

From January unto the World Tour Finals this week, Thiem has played close to 30 tournaments. Aligned with the statistical itinerary of the other players, the enormity of the number grows further. Even Murray and Djokovic, who are currently battling it out to close out the year ranked in the top place in the ATP rankings have not played as many events as the Austrian has done. In fact, inclusive of the London finals, the Scotsman and the Serbian have played only 17 events each, in a display of extreme selectiveness in adjusting their schedule.

Fears of burn-out

With the tennis calendar spanning 11 months at a stretch, it is taxing for the players to complete a full season without getting fatigued or being injured. Except for the four Majors and the Masters events that mandatory, players plan out their schedule as suited to their strengths to get them the best possible results. Thiem clearly didn’t believe in doing the same.

A majorly contributing factor in this regard is the time he spent completing his compulsory duty with the Austrian army, for six months starting in 2014. His perseverance is his way of showing his diligence and commitment to the sport, influenced by the disciplinarian ambience in military training.

But, recalibration is a strategic asset for the military and as a former military man, Thiem needs to employ and exercise it better. Lest his career is curtailed by his over-zealous ambitiousness.