Can Lewis Hamilton still win the title? He’ll need some help from Red Bull and Ferrari

“Just tell me what needs to be done, and I will do it,” was Lewis Hamilton’s plea before the Japanese Grand Prix. This was a week after he had blown an engine whilst leading the Malaysian GP. Then, he saw Nico Rosberg take victory in Suzuka, himself finishing third.

At that juncture, the equation was a simple one: win all four remaining races, and then we will see where Rosberg stands. Halfway through that onerous task, Hamilton has delivered back-to-back wins in USA and Mexico.

The equation is still a little complex for Hamilton now. He needs to win both the remaining races in Brazil (November 13) and Abu Dhabi (November 27), but that might not be enough for he still trails by 19 points.

Hamilton can’t do it alone

What has changed though is the margin of error for Rosberg. After Japan, should Hamilton win all four races, all Rosberg needed to do was finish second in each of them. Now, if Hamilton wins the remaining two races as well, Rosberg needs to finish second and third, and he will be champion.

However, the German cannot afford two third-placed finishes or even a second and fourth in these last two races. This equation has but one implication: Hamilton needs help from either Red Bull Racing or Ferrari.

In fact, he might need both of them to help him in beating his teammate and this is where the events in Mexico City on Sunday become relevant. Mercedes were clearly ahead of the pack, in terms of both qualifying speed and race pace. This is where the other two teams get split. Red Bull are quick in qualifying, while Ferrari have the race pace.

In a straight fight, Ferrari can push Mercedes on the same strategy but they qualify poorly and lose out. Red Bull, meanwhile, have to be innovative with their strategies and then rely on on-track action, as with Daniel Ricciardo’s strategy in Mexico of pitting early and doing a long stint. The two teams end up out of position during qualifying and then get mixed up during the race – depending on track conditions and ambient temperatures for tyres available, of course.

This, in turn, plays straight into Rosberg’s hands. Ricciardo pushed him in Austin, while Max Verstappen did the same in Mexico City, but neither was able to complete the move, leaving the defending champion anguished.

Simply put then, despite taking two wins in a row comfortably, Hamilton needs immaculate driving, some help from his competitors, and a lot of luck to prevent Rosberg from winning the title.

Anger over penalties

So, three drivers finished third in the Mexican GP. Two went up to the podium, and only one got the trophy. It makes for an interesting unravelling of what happened.

Verstappen was penalised for leaving the track and not letting Sebastian Vettel through. Vettel was then penalised for moving under braking when defending from Ricciardo. It made for great entertainment, whether you were watching or just listening in.

The young Dutchman was penalised, but Rosberg was not at the start of the race, when the two had clashed on the second corner. There is an argument that it was also similar to Hamilton leaving the track at the first corner, as he locked up and ran across the run-off area to hold his lead. However, in this instance, Hamilton was not jousting immediately with either Rosberg or Verstappen, and any advantage gained was because the two were clashing at the second corner. Moreover, the safety car negated any such advantage.

As such, Vertsappen should not feel aggrieved at either conclusion. In the first instance, he pushed Rosberg off the track. In the second, he was told to give the place back by his race engineer and he did not oblige. He was duly given a five-second penalty, demoted to fifth, and told to remove himself from the podium room.

Vettel can feel a bit peeved though, which is an understatement, given his explicit comments about both Verstappen and race director Charlie Whiting. It was a disgrace to insult his colleagues on world television in that manner. Meanwhile, F1’s governing body, the FIA punished him for his incident with Ricciardo, pushing him to fifth spot with a 10-second penalty thus elevating the Australian to third, and Verstappen to fourth.

It is the real debate. Only recently, the authorities have come down strictly on changing direction under braking, like Verstappen has done often. This could be the case wherein the FIA wanted to make a firm example on the very first instance. In Vettel’s defence, Verstappen had pushed him back into Ricciardo, though that is not illegal in racing terms.

The summation of all this is simple, again. Red Bull and Ferrari coming together again and again is not what Hamilton wants. It is precisely what Rosberg wants though, as he tightens his grip on that elusive world title.