Congress-mukt Bharat? A 'clean' Yeddyurappa could evict the party from the last big state it rules

The last thing that the ruling Congress in Karnataka would have wanted was for former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa to come out unscathed in the bribery case that almost cost him his political career in 2012.

The special court for Central Bureau of Investigation cases in Bengaluru, on Wednesday, acquitted Yeddyurappa in a corruption case linked to a mining scandal that surfaced in 2011.

The charge was that Yeddyurappa, now the Bharatiya Janata Party president in Karnataka, his sons and son-in-law received bribes to the tune of Rs 20 crore through land deals in return for manipulating policies in favour of two mining companies.

Had he been convicted, Yeddyurappa faced the threat of being disqualified from contesting elections as the cases were registered under the Prevention of Corruption Act. With this hazard now out of the way, he could be expected to go full throttle against the Congress and would most certainly emerge as the face of the BJP in the 2018 Assembly elections.

Return to BJP

Officials in the Karnataka BJP and political analysts are certain that Wednesday's legal relief would strengthen Yeddyurappa's position within the party, which has witnessed some embarrassing internal squabbles over the last two years.

In 2012, Yeddyurappa quit the BJP and floated the Karnataka Janata Paksha. This came a year after he was forced to vacate the chief minister's chair following a Lokayukta report in the same case in which he was acquitted on Wednesday. This split in the BJP was one of the crucial contributing factors to the humiliating defeat it faced in the 2013 Assembly elections.

The view within the BJP in 2013 was that Yeddyurappa's exit cost a division in the vital Lingayat vote bank, which is considered the party's biggest base. The Karnataka Janata Paksha polled 10% of the votes and scored more than the margin of victory in several constituencies, costing the BJP multiple seats.

While there was opposition in the party over Yeddyurappa's return in 2014, the necessity to consolidate the Lingayat vote made it important to get him back. He was also the most charismatic face in the party who had managed to establish networks beyond his community.

Infighting in BJP

Yeddyurappa's clout was proved beyond doubts in April when he was appointed the BJP president in Karnataka despite pending corruption cases. In a way, this completed his return to the party.

But this did not mean his position went unchallenged. In particular, the Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, ES Eshwarappa, has become a thorn in Yeddyurappa's flesh. The two leaders clashed over appointments to key posts in the party. Eshwarappa took the matter to the high command and is said to have accused Yeddyurappa of sidelining meritorious candidates in favour of those who quit the BJP with him in 2012.

Though lacking in mass appeal, Eshwarappa, who was a former Deputy Chief Minister, was valuable for his focus on the Ahinda (a coalition of Dalits and several Other Backward Classes). The BJP looks at Eshwarappa as a possible counter to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, since both the leaders belong to the Kuruba community.

In August, Yeddyurappa and Eshwarappa warred openly after the latter launched the Sangolli Rayanna Brigade. The brigade was touted as an independent organisation to help Dalits and the weaker sections among OBCs. Yeddyurappa saw this as a blatant challenge to his supremacy and instructed party workers not to associate themselves with the brigade.

Also, the recent caste census in Karnataka, the findings of which were leaked to the media in May, has raised questions about the actual strength of the Lingayat community. While it was thought that the Lingayats were the largest voting bloc in Karnataka and constituted about 17% of the population, the census placed their share at a mere 9%. If true, it becomes even more important for the BJP to ensure the presence of strong non-Lingayat leaders in its fold.

Muzaffar Assadi, professor of political science in the University of Mysore, said the internal battles in the BJP weakened its focus on the Congress since leaders were busy plotting against each other. The court's verdict on Wednesday could tilt the battle in favour of Yeddyurappa.

"He will now have an upper hand in the Karnataka BJP," Assadi said, adding that Yeddyurappa would most certainly be the chief ministerial candidate of the BJP for the 2018 Assembly elections.

Challenge for Congress

For the ruling Congress, a clean chit to Yeddyurappa could only mean more trouble. Karnataka is the largest State among the six the party is currently ruling and the only one in south India.

The Karnataka Assembly elections in 2018 will take place just months before the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and could therefore be viewed as a semi-final before the national showdown with the BJP. This makes the State doubly crucial for the Congress.

Assadi said while Yeddyurappa and anti-incumbency posed twin challenges, all was not lost for the Congress.

"The BJP is yet to get hold of a major controversy to pin the Congress down," he said. Even in the Cauvery dispute, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's strategy of taking the Opposition along has paid off politically.

Further, any signs of BJP gaining strength could lead to a political rearrangement. Already, the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) led by HD Deva Gowda have exhibited great camaraderie in the Cauvery dispute with Tamil Nadu.

"Yeddyurappa alone cannot win elections for the BJP. They need a substantial issue to build a campaign against the Congress," Assadi added.