Has Brics lost its way on Goa’s sandy beaches?

This year has been catastrophic for India’s multilateral diplomacy. The Saarc summit, which was originally scheduled for November in Islamabad, has got scuttled, thanks to India’s boycott.

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have since clarified that they too sought postponement of the summit in Islamabad, but for reasons other than “terrorism”. So has Afghanistan. Nepal regrets the postponement of the summit and wants an early re-scheduling. Maldives keeps mum, lost in thoughts.

Nonetheless, India claims, proudly, that it led the way for the South Asian pack to cock a snook at Pakistan’s credentials to put on the mantle of regional leadership even by rotation.

Within the month, India may now be about to undermine another multilateral process, which is far more profound to world politics than Saarc – the Brics summit that got under way in Goa on Saturday.

Again, ironically, the elephant in the room is taking over – Pakistan. India has hauled over the coal two out of its four Brics partners on account of their perceived and real relationships with Pakistan, which does not measure up to the high standards Delhi sets for all warrior-countries in the struggle against terrorism.

To one interlocutor, Russia, India held out carrot and stick, while, as regards the other, China, things have deteriorated into an unpleasant brawl.

Sensing how much crucial the income from arms exports is to the Russian economy, which is seriously damaged due to western sanctions, India simply fast-tracked at breakneck speed certain multi-billion dollar arms deals that would have involved decision-making at glacial pace in the Indian bureaucracy normally.

Indian expects Russia to be eternally grateful. While that may be too much to expect and will be ignoring Russian diplomatic ingenuity to walk the fine line, Moscow may accommodate the Narendra Modi government by slowing down the optics of its budding strategic ties with Pakistan so as not to ruffle Indian feathers.

Gloves are off

On the other hand, with China, India has taken its gloves off, finally. In reality, the”hard line” in the China policies that began appearing some two years ago has begun surging. The government is willing – and is even appearing eager – to mothball India’s ties with China unless the latter re-calibrated its regional policies in deference to Indian sensitivities as the pre-eminent regional leader in South Asia.

Most important, India demands that China should pull back from its profound engagement with Pakistan so that India can sort out its “Pakistan problem” on its own terms. To be sure, China will not and cannot oblige, and even ahead of the bilateral summit meeting in Goa on Saturday, it took care to notify Delhi that its stance will not shift.

Thus, Modi government is preparing for a Churchillian struggle with China – on the beaches, in the hills and in the air, as it were. The consequences are hard to predict but in immediate terms the impact will be that the Brics summit in Goa takes a body blow. There is no escape from this reality.

Multilateral processes such as Brics are highly selective in choosing their participants and if the participants do not enjoy good vibes amongst themselves, the stink percolates all over the tent and would asphyxiate constructive and productive interaction.

After all, even diplomats are human beings. Mature and responsible countries, therefore, try to insulate the multilateral events from being over-burdened with extraneous issues. Especially, host countries go to any extent to take care – India in this case.

India has chosen the path of the Bharatiya Janata Party, however – scandalise the interlocutors until they fall in line to its wish list. Scholars say India has a tradition in regard of throwing diplomatic tantrums unless and until it has its way.

On the other hand, if Indian diplomacy fails to make headway, it has a habit of hunkering down and sulking. Most countries regard diplomacy as the art of the possible. When neither Russia nor China is putting pre-conditions regarding their Brics partner’s “defining partnership of the 21st century” with the United States, how could India arrogate to itself the prerogative to dictate their terms of engagement with Pakistan?

Importance of Brics

In sum, it is hard to imagine that Brics will ever regain its verve after the road accident in Goa. This must be worrying Moscow already, which, after all, is credited with the immaculate conception of Brics a decade ago as an ingenuous way of fortifying itself against the US’ containment strategies against it.

The Brics is more important than ever for Russia today when it is preparing for a first-rate confrontation with the United States in the event of a Hillary-Clinton presidency in less than three months from now.

The imperatives working on China’s Brics calculus is not very different, either. Interestingly, three days back, at a colloquium in Beijing, Chinese think tankers candidly applied themselves to the ‘Brics question’. Some of the views expressed are highly revealing:

• Brics is in need of ‘restructuring’ for transforming it as a voice on global challenges.
• A Brics free trade area would be “a significant form of cooperation”.
• Brics will face difficulties if member countries cannot ‘energise’ their economies.
• More countries should be brought into the Brics mechanism in order to ‘rejuvenate’ it.
• “The Belt and Road Initiative could replace Brics, as the actions of the institution are showing a slowdown trend.” [Emphasis added.]
• Brics should also act “as a political force in global decision-making”.
• Brics should “increase its political presence” by fostering greater trade and tourism among member-countries.

Existential challenge

But this is not the end of the story. By the middle of next year, Indian diplomacy runs into what can only be called an “existential challenge” when time comes for it to enter the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation tent as full member alongside Pakistan.

China had harboured misgivings about the wisdom of allowing India to become a member, apprehending that as sure as night follows day, Delhi will drag the entire regional grouping into the morass of its troubled relationship with Pakistan.

Russia claims credit for prevailing upon the Chinese misgivings. Ironically, it now becomes Russia’s moral responsibility to ensure that Shanghai Cooperation Organisation processes do not get ship-wrecked on the iceberg of India-Pakistan tensions. Now, how can Russia perform such a role unless it wields some degree of influence over Pakistan, too? India’s tunnel vision is simply amazing.

In fact, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was the only major international initiative that Chinese diplomacy undertook – that is, until the “Belt and Road Initiative” sailed into view. If India stalls the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and derails it too, it can have the vicarious satisfaction of killing two birds with one shot – discrediting a progeny of creative Chinese diplomacy while also stifling a regional security organisation that Washington wanted to kill in its cradle.

Come to think of it, the Obama administration must be mighty thrilled that Brics stands diminished at the Goa summit. The Brics posed a historic challenge to the western dominance in modern history.

The Brics holds seamless potential to offer a new blue print of contemporary political and economic system. Any Fact Sheet on the Brics economies would testify to that.

Of late, Brics was gaining traction. The creation of the Brics bank and the reserve fund were major achievements. The grouping had also begum venturing into the political arena, voicing opinions that are glaringly opposed to the US strategies.

The Brics held out a unique threat to the United States insofar as while all its member countries placed accent on their bilateral ties with the US, it was also in a collective sense systematically challenging the US’ hegemony by questioning the post-Cold War era financial and political institutions that provided the foundation for the western dominance of the world order.

In sheer intellectual terms, a group of emerging powers never before in history had really thought up such an innovative method of challenging the established order. Put differently, Brics is a poignant reminder that the so-called Thucydides’ Trap is not necessarily inevitable as the world order takes new shape.

The Greek historian’s metaphor has been a constant warning against attendant dangers when rising powers rival a ruling power. Therefore, if India has weakened the Brics at this historic juncture, it will also be doing a great favour to the US. Which, of course, will only be consistent with the overall drift of Indian foreign policies under the Modi government.