Has ‘khoon ki dalaali’ brought Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav closer together?

In poll season, even a casual statement or stray comment by a political leader is invariably subject to intense scrutiny and debate about the possible underlying meanings.

This is precisely what seems to have happened after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav supported Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi’s recent “khoon ki dalali” comment in which he accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of trying to extract political advantage from the army’s surgical strikes on terror camps across the Line of Control.

While acknowledging that he had good relations with the Congress leader, Yadav did not fault Gandhi for his comment which has come in for all-round criticism. “If he has said something, he must have given it much thought. He must have some information about it,“ Yadav told media persons on Monday.

With Uttar Pradesh headed for assembly elections early next year, Yadav’s supportive reaction has predictably sparked off speculation about a possible alliance or an informal understanding between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress.

Though both parties are denying these reports, Yadav and Gandhi also have their compulsions in seeking each other’s help in the coming polls. It is an acknowledged fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party will not stop at anything – from playing the nationalism card to rousing communal passions - to stay ahead in the race as the election in the country’s most populous state will set the stage for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The opposition is equally aware that the Uttar Pradesh election verdict will have an impact on national politics. The Congress is, therefore, particularly desperate to stop the BJP’s surge. But the grand old party is handicapped by the fact that its support base has eroded over the 27 years it has been out of power in the state. Moreover, its party organisation is weak and it does not have strong effective leaders to take up the battle. Clearly, Gandhi will welcome all the support he can get.

Similarly, the Samajwadi Party’s prospects in next year’s election do not look too rosy, even though it won a clear and decisive mandate in the 2012 assembly polls. The Akhilesh Yadav government has earned the wrath of the electorate for the poor law and order situation in the state. Public anger is especially directed at the party’s cadres and supporters who, many believe, have been given state protection despite their blatant criminal activities. With Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati making an all-out bid to wean away the minorities from the Samajwadi Party fold, its leadership will have to work doubly hard to keep its Muslim-Yadav support base intact.

Divided clan

To add to its troubles, the ruling Yadav clan is hopelessly divided as revealed by recent public sparring between different factions. Akhilesh Yadav took a series of steps to undermine his uncle Shivpal Yadav but had to retract following his father and party chief Mulayum Singh Yadav’s intervention.

Akhilesh Yadav has kept a low profile ever since this truce was called. But an emboldened Shivpal Yadav has hit back by throwing out or sidelining a number of Akhilesh Yadav’s supporters in what is being seen as an attempt to cut him to size and take control of the party organisation.

This battle could intensify when the party gets down to the ticklish task of picking candidates for the forthcoming polls. The tension at the top has also divided the cadres. Akhilesh Yadav enjoys the support of the younger workers while Shivpal Yadav also has a band of loyalists since he has been instrumental in building and managing the party organisation.

There is a buzz in political circles that Akhilesh Yadav will strike back at an opportune moment. He has an advantage as he remains the party’s chief ministerial face. Besides, his personal image has not suffered despite the clashes in the family and the anti-incumbency against his party. The general view is that he is well-meaning and wants to work for the development of the state but is not being allowed to function independently. Akhilesh Yadav may need external support in case he faces trouble from within his own party.

Common factors

Both Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi have a lot in common despite the differences in their temperament. Both leaders claim that they want to fight corruption, “change the system” and focus on development. Both are facing resistance from the old guard in their respective parties.

The two have a healthy respect for each other. Well before Akhilesh Yadav backed the Congress leader’s “khoon ki dalali” comment, Gandhi had described him as a “good man”. It also did not go unnoticed that Rahul Gandhi focused his attack on the Modi government rather than the state government during his recent Deoria to Delhi kisan yatra.

On the flip side, it will not be easy for the Congress to opt for a pre-poll alliance with the Samajwadi Party after it has already declared Sheila Dikshit as its chief ministerial candidate in the hope of wooing the influential Brahmin community. In addition, it also runs the risk of being saddled with the anti-incumbency against the Akhilesh Yadav government as it will have to necessarily defend its decision to align with the discredited Samajwadi Party.

However, the option of a post-poll alliance is always on the table. But this option can only be exercised if the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have the requisite numbers to form a government. That may prove to be a tall order as the BJP and the BSP have a distinct advantage over these two parties. While the BJP has consolidated its position after the surgical strikes across the LoC, the BSP has strengthened its hold over the Dalits after a string of recent attacks against them and is making a concerted effort to woo the minorities.