How the AIADMK stands to gain from Rahul Gandhi's courtesy call on Jayalalithaa

Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi's sudden visit to Chennai on Friday to call on ailing Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa has set off political churning in the state.

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Congress have been on a collision course since Jayalalithaa’s conviction in 2014 for amassing wealth disproportionate to her income. Being an ally of the Opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam makes the national party an automatic opponent of the AIADMK. But the animosity has gone up several notches since Jayalalithaa was acquitted by the Karnataka High Court in 2015 and the Congress government in that state subsequently challenged her acquittal in the Supreme Court.

So it took everyone by surprise in Tamil Nadu when Gandhi decided to “uphold political etiquette” on Friday to visit Jayalalithaa in the Apollo hospital, where she has been since September 22.

Gandhi’s actions have had various effects on the state’s political parties. While the DMK is irked about not being kept in the loop about his plans, the visit may have taken the pressure off the ruling AIADMK, which is being pushed to come up with an interim administration arrangement till Jayalalithaa gets back on her feet.

Keeping the Centre away?

While the AIADMK was able to ward off criticism on the administrative front in the first week, the fact that the chief minister’s hospital stay has turned out to be so prolonged has made matters difficult for the ruling party.

The Opposition, including the DMK and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam led by Vijayakant, has demanded an interim arrangement till Jayalalithaa is able to resume her duties. There was speculation that the Centre would intervene to force the AIADMK to work out a temporary arrangement in the chief minister's absence.

A senior leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party said on condition of anonymity that the Congress vice-president’s visit seemed to be a message to the Union government. “One reading could be that this is the AIADMK's way of telling the Centre not to interfere when their chief minister is ill,” this person said.

The leader said it was difficult to believe that Gandhi would visit Jayalalithaa without her party’s knowledge. “I don't think anyone can suddenly turn up [at the hospital] without informing the AIADMK,” the official said.

DMK in the dark

While Gandhi’s visit may have helped the AIADMK, it has not gone down well with the DMK. Not only was the Congress ally kept in the dark about his plans, the incident overshadowed party treasurer MK Stalin's fast on the Cauvery water dispute that took place on the same day in Thanjavur. The fast became a mere footnote in the day's developments, which were dominated by Gandhi's trip to the hospital.

Gandhi also made no attempt to meet DMK chief M Karunanidhi in Chennai. Karunanidhi's residence is barely 2 km from Apollo hospital and he was very much in town on Friday.

Adding to the DMK’s dismay was speculation that Gandhi's visit may have been facilitated by Natarajan, the husband of Sasikala, a friend of Jayalalithaa's. Natarajan is known to be close to Tamil Nadu Congress Committee chief Su Thirunavukkarasar, who was formerly a Jayalalithaa loyalist in the AIADMK in the early 1990s.

A former DMK minister concurred with observations in the media that keeping the doors open with the Congress could be part of the AIADMK's plan to neutralise the DMK.

Political commentator R Mani said that though there was nothing to suggest Jayalalithaa was critically ill, political calculations would have to factor in all scenarios. And the DMK would, under any circumstance, find it close to impossible to take a shot at power in the state without the support of the Congress. The DMK has 89 members in the Assembly and the Congress eight. A party needs 117 members to attain majority in the House of 234.

Mani also said that with the judgement in the 2G spectrum case – in which several top DMK leaders are on trial – expected soon, “maybe this is the Congress's way of keeping the channels open to distance itself from the DMK”.

State Congress at a loss

It isn’t just the DMK that has been taken by surprise by Gandhi’s visit. Within the Tamil Nadu Congress too, the incident is being seen as yet another instance of the high command making decisions unilaterally.

A state Congress vice-president said the party has finalised seat-sharing arrangements for local bodies elections, which were earlier scheduled for October but recently postponed by an order of the Madras High Court.

"We cannot take on the DMK when we are fighting elections with them,” the official said, adding that such a strategy would further weaken the party in Tamil Nadu.