In his eagerness to be king, will Nitish Kumar come across as the jester?

Is Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar overplaying his hand by making his prime ministerial ambitions obvious with more than two years to go for the Parliamentary elections?

There is a growing view in his party, the Janata Dal (United), and its allies – the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal – that by being so transparent about his desire for a larger role on a national stage, Kumar has opened himself up to attacks from within the ruling coalition as well as the Opposition.

There are fears that his detractors and political rivals will now work overtime to foil his plans. For instance, Kumar’s attempt to bring together like-minded political parties to form a front against the Bharatiya Janata Party has not gone down too well with the Congress, which feels that as a party with a pan-Indian presence, it is best suited to play this role.

“Proper timing is crucial in politics, but Nitish Kumar has revealed his cards too early on in the game,” said a Rashtriya Janata Dal leader.

Head start

But Kumar had planned his move as early as 2015, right after his stupendous victory of the Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance of Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress in the Bihar Assembly elections in November.

The decision to invite chief ministers and leaders from across the political spectrum for his swearing-in ceremony was the first indication that Kumar was trying to position himself as the rallying point for the formation of a national anti-BJP front. On the guest list for the grand event were chief ministers Mamata Banerjee from Kolkata, Arvind Kejriwal of Delhi and Akhilesh Yadav of Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav as well as former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah and Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Yadav, among other political heavyweights.

Prohibition zeal

Then came the widely discussed liquor ban – announced in December 2015, shortly after he came to power, and implemented in April. Kumar, handicapped by the fact that his party does not have much presence outside Bihar, sought to get around it by appealing to women voters across the country with his promise to implement a strict prohibition on alcohol.

The Bihar Excise (Amendment) Act, 2016 banned the manufacture, sale, transport and consumption of alcohol, including Indian Made Foreign Liquor, making Bihar a completely dry state. The extremely stringent provisions of the Act, particularly those specifying penalty, were widely criticised by the media and politicians, but the issue has found huge resonance amongst women voters, especially from poor and marginalised sections, where alcohol addiction has been observed to have links with continuing poverty (as men squander their earnings on alcohol) and domestic violence in many parts of the country.

Pursuing this issue zealously, Kumar is also reaching out to civil society groups and former Socialists on the strength of this plank. Moreover, he has addressed a number of public meetings in Uttar Pradesh, ahead of next year’s assembly elections where prohibition and anti-BJP rhetoric has dominated the discourse.

“Given his party’s limited presence in Uttar Pradesh, Kumar is unlikely to get a substantial number of votes in the state elections but his plan is to build a larger profile outside Bihar,” remarked a senior Congress leader.

Ban bane

Although no political leader can openly oppose the policy, there are growing murmurs in the ruling alliance that Kumar’s obsession with the implementation of the liquor ban has reduced his governance agenda to this single issue. Janata Dal (United) leaders privately maintain that governance in Bihar is suffering as the chief minister is far too busy pursuing his national ambition.

In addition, the recent Hooch tragedy in Bihar’s Gopalganj town has highlighted the pitfalls of such an absolute ban. On August 15, at least 16 people died after consuming spurious liquor while three more have reportedly been blinded.

After his two successive stints as chief minister, Kumar had acquired the reputation of a strong and able leader who had brought much-need development to Bihar. However, his administrative capabilities, once a subject of admiration, are no longer a talking point, with the focus shifted to his overzealous enforcement and bullish defence of the liqour ban.

His colleagues feel that this could eventually be the undoing of the party. Leaders said that past experiences in several states, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Haryana, which had enforced a total ban on alcohol only to repeal it, have shown that prohibition does not prevent people from drinking alcohol – it only limits access to affordable and quality liquor and results in corruption and the underground sale of illicit liquor.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal is unhappy with the turn of events but party chief Lalu Prasad Yadav has maintained silence on the issue to keep the peace in the state. As he cannot hold office or contest elections after his conviction in the fodder scam case in October 2013, Lalu Yadav is presently preoccupied with grooming his inexperienced sons, Tejasvi Yadav and Tejprasad Yadav, both of whom hold office in the Bihar government.

Moreover, Lalu Yadav will be happy if Kumar eventually moves to the national stage as it will leave the field clear for his sons. However, if the Bihar chief minister continues to neglect other issues in the state, it may turn voters away from the ruling alliance.

Kumar now has to move fast to make up for his party’s limited presence outside his home state with an image make-over that will allow him to reach out to voters across India.

“Nitish Kumar is serving his third term as chief minister. He cannot remain confined to the state any longer,” said one of his loyalists from the Janata Dal (United). “He has to move out of Bihar and there’s no better time to do so than the present.”